Apple - page 57

Now we’ve seen them, now we know. The new MacBooks and MacBook Pros are quite nice in some respects, and quite frustrating in others.

What amuses me about the whole thing, though, is how astoundingly far-out some of the pre-event speculation was. It’s always part of the fun, exploring the gamut of people’s expectations and imaginations as they dream up the kind of product they’d like Apple to create for them.

My favorite this year was the iMac-as-docking-station concept, which showed an iMac-like monitor with a huge hole in one side, into which a folded MacBook could be slotted. A nice fantasy indeed, but still a fantasy. And Apple’s not in the business of fulfilling every fanboy’s fantasy.

No, Apple’s in business to make profit, like every other computer manufacturer. As such, it’s product development decisions are, and will be, driven by the profit they can be reasonably expected to generate.

Reaction is still coming in from analysts on Apple’s decision to drop the price of its plastic entry-level MacBook. While ThinkPanure and others believe the sub-$1,000 notebook isn’t enough to attract worried consumers, some onlookers told Cult of Mac the move was a good beginning.

“They’ve never done cheap well – but the $999 MacBook is a good start,” Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Murphy e-mailed Wednesday.

Murphy said Apple is positioning Mac sales for a long economic slowdown. Wednesday, JPMorgan said Apple had “meaningful buffers” that could allow the company to ride out any initial impact. Analyst Mark Moskowitz pointed to the value of Cupertino’s brand and iPhone revenue expected later in 2009.

Although the price cut affects a legacy plastic MacBook, more than half of the consumers considering the $999 plastic MacBook will opt for the newly-unveiled $1,299 aluminum unibody design, Murphy wrote.

The upshot of Tuesday’s new products: a slight or no impact on Apple margins. The company is expected to announce third quarter numbers later this month.

JPMorgan Wednesday upgraded Apple to Overweight from Neutral, arguing the company is protected from the cold winds of a consumer downturn.

“We think that Apple’s brand and market share momentum offer meaningful buffers” despite 70-75 percent of Cupertino’s sales relying on the consumer, analyst Mark Moskowitz told investors this morning.

Acknowledging even Apple won’t come away unscathed from the current slowdown in spending, Moskowitz wrote “Apple likely has a backstop beyond the first round.”

Apple’s share of the PC market reached nearly 10 percent during the third quarter. Although Cupertino retained the third position in U.S. shipments, Apple posted 29 percent growth, outstripped all other computer makers.

Gartner announced Apple controlled 9.5 percent of domestic PC sales, up from 7.7 percent a year ago. In stark contrast to Dell and HP which had 6 percent and 4 percent growth respectively, Apple had a more than 29 percent increase during the third quarter of 2008.

Apple sold 1.6 million Macs during the third quarter, up from 1.2 million shipped the previous year.

Tuesday, Apple unveiled a lower-priced entry MacBook onlookers saw as a response to concerns of slowing consumer spending. The company has set Oct. 21 to release third quarter sales figures.

Apple promised that it would finally pull its attention off the cash cow iPhone and iPod product lines to spotlight notebooks at an event this morning, and they weren’t kidding. New MacBook, new Air, new Pro, and a new matching Cinema Display for good measure. The design team absolutely hit it out of the park on these machines, which are all glass, shiny black accents, and subtly tapered corners. Like the iMac whose design they refine and make significantly more appealing, these machines look like they were just made to sync with an iPhone or iPod touch (and, if anything, they make the continued use of white plastic docks for those devices look increasingly incongruous). This is Apple’s best design work, and it’s for a Mac — something we haven’t seen since the 12″ PowerBook G4 that I’m typing on was introduced. Read on for the Pros and the Cons…

The ‘will he or won’t he’ question was answered Tuesday when Apple CEO Steve Jobs announced he’ll offer a $999 MacBook in time for the holiday shopping season.

Although the price cut is on the entry-level 2.1GHz white plastic MacBook and not on one of the nifty unibody aluminum notebooks introduced, the news appeared to satisfy some analysts.

“I think it is important to note that MacBook pricing is coming down. Nobody is immune to the consumer,” Vijay R Rakesh, ThinkPanmure analyst, told Cult of Mac.

After talking up the benefits of a sub-$1,000 notebook, the rumor mill is now soft-peddling the idea as everyone waits for Cupertino’s notebook event slated for 10 a.m. Pacific (1 p.m. ET).

In a post claiming what will and won’t appear, Daring Fireball blogger John Gruber calls analyst speculation of $800 notebooks so much “jackassery” leading up to Tuesday’s unveiling.

Gruber and others are talking of Apple lowering to $999 the price of the 2.1 GHz MacBook which had cost $1,099. In addition, two new MacBook Pros and MacBooks will be introduced. Also rumored: a glass trackpad that also acts as a trackpad button and the replacement of Intel’s graphics chipset for NVIDIA.

“We would be surprised if they didn’t have a $999 MacBook option” for investors, Piper Jaffray Apple hardware analyst Andrew Murphy told Cult of Mac Tuesday.

“If not, (Apple) has some explaining to do,” Murphy said.

He bases his belief on Apple’s prior statements of a “product transition” prompting lower margins.

Monday, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimated Apple could gain up to 69 percent in potential revenue if a sub-$1,000 notebook is released.

Giant discount chain Wal-Mart in November may become the second retailer to sell Apple’s iPhone, a report said Monday.

Wal-Mart, which already sells a huge number of iPods, could announce a deal Nov. 15, just two weeks before the retail sector’s “Black Monday,” according to the Boy Genius Report website.

In September, electronics retailer Best Buy began selling iPhones, making it the first third-party retailer to offer the Apple handset.

Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney told Cult of Mac if the report is true, the addition of Wal-Mart with its 3,500 stores, would be a good move.

“Problem is that Wal-Mart shoppers are on budgets and the iPhone is expensive for them both in device cost and service,” Dulaney wrote in an e-mail.

As we await Apple’s Tuesday notebook announcement, one analyst says offering a sub-$1,000 notebook could increase Apple’s potential revenue by up to 69 percent.

If Apple unveils a $900 laptop, the move would increase Apple’s potential revenue by 50 percent, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a Monday note to investors.

If rumors are true and the Cupertino, Calif. company rolls out an $800 laptop, the news could boost Apple revenue by 69 percent.

“The spotlight turns to notebooks.” So goes the just-released invite from Apple to an Oct. 14 media event. The e-mail to media appears to lend credence to a bevy of reports that Cupertino is set to launch a low-cost notebook computer.

Earlier this morning, a number of tech news sites, lead by the Inquisitir, reported an $800 laptop is among a price list that was released to Apple retailers.

The rumors were also backed up by a series of leaked photos published by a Taiwan website. Among the photos was a 13-inch aluminum Apple laptop.

Analysts have speculated Apple may “refresh” its hardware with a sub-$1,000 Mac. Long known for its pricey hardware, Apple has seen its sales impacted by the sluggish economy.

Apple products are so good-looking, they act as an integral as part of the interior design of your home.

That seems to be the idea, at least, behind a photo spread in October’s Casa Amica, monthly design supplement to Italian daily Corriere della Sera.

The Italians call it a “tecno minimal” look (click on photo for larger view), where your iPod Touch is the perfect complement to the gres coffee cups. You, minimalist homeowner, sip espresso while ogling an aluminum and marble Doimo kitchen from the screen. Or browse for a new kitchen with your iMac, perhaps this one with a slightly institutional feel, probably distracted by the lovely Philippe Starck glasses for Driade on your counter top.

Not so sure I buy the concept, but love the white ceramic espresso maker.

Spotted any Apple products in magazines, ads or movies? Let me know.

Apple has once again won the “cool factor” with teen iPhone owners now nearly triple ( 8 percent versus 3 percent) compared to a year ago. The Piper Jaffray survey also revealed 22 percent of teens say they plan to buy the Apple handset – up from just 9 percent in 2007.

Other good news for Apple: 84 percent of MP3 players purchased by teens were iPods. Microsoft’s Zune came in a distant second, capturing just 3 percent of the teen marketshare.

Apple’s iTunes music download service now has 93 percent of the market. That’s up from 79 percent uncovered a year ago.

Apple’s fourth quarter results later this month may be one of the most widely-awaited events since the Vice Presidential debates.

After the stock whipsawed on analyst downgrades then health rumors surrounding CEO Steve Jobs, investment analysts now suggest Apple must either report strong sales or announce new products.

If Apple does not report healthy sales of Macs during the September quarter, “the importance of the new Mac increases substantially,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told Cult of Mac Tuesday.

The Apple Blogotubes are a-buzz with boffo Interblag bloviating at a rumor from 9to5mac.com that Apple’s rumored “Brick” product was actually a nickname for a new manufacturing process that will use “lasers and jets of water to carve the MacBooks out of a brick of aluminum.” More, it’s a “game-changer;” “totally revolutionary;” “Apple’s biggest innovation in a decade.”

…Yeah, maybe not.

As Adam Richardson, an industrial designer at consultancy frog design and CNet blogger, points out, lasers and waterjets have been used in manufacturing for ages — by Apple.

The glowing LED that appears behind a “solid” front face of the MacBooks is apparently achieved with laser-cutting to thin out and partially perforate the wall in that one area.

Richardson also speculates that the existing iPod Shuffle is manufactured using a similar process, and even the MacBook Air has some telltale signs that it draws on really interesting and unusual manufacturing techniques. But would Apple actually carve an entire laptop out of one block of aluminum? And would it save any money?

On such a small product this is do-able. On a large product like a laptop this would typically result in a massive amount of waste (so kiss your green credentials goodbye). And the notion that this is somehow cheaper than stamping thin sheets or molding plastic is completely wrong – it’s much more expensive.

Yeah… no.

I’ve been talking with other industrial designers about this issue, and they all agree that the reasoning behind the current Brick rumor doesn’t add up. One friend of mine guessed it would add up to $50 in manufacturing costs and might not be any stronger or lighter than more traditional manufacturing approaches.

Does Apple have a game-changing laptop in the wings that will reinvent the MacBook and MacBook Pro design language? For their sake, they’d better. Will it be milled from a single block of aluminum? Not in this lifetime.

Matter/Anti-Matter

Nearly a third of iPhone users switched carriers in order to buy the Apple touch-screen phone, researchers said Monday. The news comes as the iPhone leads smartphone sales between July and August.

Some thirty percent of U.S. smartphone buyers switched carriers to AT&T in order to purchase an iPhone in that period, market research firm NPD Group announced.

That compares to the 24 percent industry average for smartphone buyers.

When Apple CEO Steve Jobs announces fiscal fourth quarter iPhone sales later this month, a few industry analysts could be red-faced. An effort by iPhone owners points to Apple selling more than the 5 million a consensus of experts had predicted for the three-month period that ended Sept. 30.

In addition, the data could lend support to Jobs’ claim 10 million iPhones would be sold in 2008.

Barclays Capital Friday cut its target price for Apple shares, citing the “obvious economic weakness.”

“We believe it is prudent to cut our estimates given checks indicate a more pronounced slowdown within the PC supply chain and increased pressure on consumer spending,” wrote analyst Ben Reitzes.

The analyst firm cut Apple’s stock price to $135 from $180 but retained an “Overweight” rating for the Cupertino, Calif. company.

The Android-based G1 handset now shares with the iPhone the status of a goal-setter for mobile phones, researcher Gartner said Thursday.

“You won’t beat Apple in the short term, but being worse than both Apple and Android is likely to end in disaster,” Gartner analysts Roberta Cozza and Carolina Milanesi write.

The two said the Android-based G1 will probably ship between 600,000 to 700,000 devices this year and comprise 10 percent of smartphone sales by 2011.

The iPhone’s entrance onto the handset scene was a “big favor” to the handset industry, pushing companies to change in the face of Cupertino, Nokia CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo said Thursday.

The comments came as the handset giant launches its 5800 XpressMusic, a touch-screen handset with the Comes With Music service. Like the iPhone, the 5800 offers a 3G network interface, GPS and Wi-Fi.

Nokia’s comments appear to reflect the view of others. “I don’t think a handset maker out there doesn’t believe that,” Kevin Burden, ABI Research’s director of mobile devices, told Cult of Mac.

Apple’s share of the operating system market hit 8.2 percent in September, research firm Net Applications announced Wednesday. The numbers mark the first time the Apple OS has risen above 8 percent.

The new numbers reflect a 0.45-point advance from August’s 7.86 percent market share. In June, OS X approached the 8-percent mark, reaching 7.94 percent.

Mac OS X broke the 7 percent barrier in December 2007, moving to 7.31 percent from 6.8 percent a month earlier.

September’s increase is credited to the surge in Apple sales during the back-to-school period. In September 2007, the Mac OS X market share jumped 0.45 points, mirroring the same growth in September 2008.

Although Microsoft Windows remains above 90 percent of operating systems, that dominant lead slipped slightly in September, falling 0.4 points to 90.3 percent.

Apple Inc. announced Wednesday it will release its fiscal fourth quarter report Oct. 21, possibly ending speculation how the economic downturn hurt the Cupertino, Calif. company.

Earlier this week, Apple shares dived 18 percent following downgrades by several investment houses, including Morgan Stanley. The stock recovered a day later after Goldman Sachs and Citi retained “Buy” ratings for Apple, suggesting investors went overboard in their reactions.

Analysts said Apple likely did not repeat its third-quarter figures which saw a record $7.46 billion profit, outpacing Wall Street expectations. More than 11 million iPods and 717,000 iPhones were sold during the period.

Net Applications added another metric to the increasing evidence that Apple is closing the gap with Windows – this time online.

Macs online grew by more than 5 percent to 8.28 percent in September, compared to August, a survey of operating systems used to connect to Web sites found.

Windows, although comprising more than 90 percent of online connections, actually fell by 0.47 percent to 90.23 percent of online operating systems last month, according to Net Applications.

IPhones leapt from 0.30 in August to 0.32 percent in September, a 6.67 percent jump.

In related news, an iPhone Satisfaction Survey by the Technologizer Web site found 91 percent of participants adore their Apple device with the majority having owned the handset for 2-3 months. E-mail, the Web and SMS topped the list of most-used iPhone applications.

Graph from Technologizer

Did investors react too quickly to analyst comments which sent Apple shares tumbling 18 percent Monday? Add Piper Jaffray to the list of analyst firms now calling for calm.

“We recognize investors do not see light at the end of the tunnel as market fears appear to be outweighing fundamental analysis” Piper’s Apple analyst Gene Munster wrote Tuesday.

Those fears – not including the Dow plummeting 777 points – were spurred by a spate of downgrades of Apple stock as analysts said slowing consumer sales could derail the Cupertino, Calif. company.

Analysts went too far with their fears Apple could be caught in the downward spiral of consumer spending. Tuesday analysts say the 18 percent fear-driven drop in Apple shares may have been ‘overdone.’

Apple shares were up 3 percent to $108 early Tuesday after Monday losing $22.98 and closing at $105.26 on Nasdaq.

Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey said Monday’s pullback “more than captures the concerns over Mac growth in a weakening spending environment.”

What should we expect to hear from Apple Tuesday when it releases its fiscal fourth quarter numbers? Analysts offered Cult of Mac a preview of sorts, providing what they think CEO Steve Jobs will say tomorrow.

The overriding theme will be how Apple confronts the economic downturn which seems to be striking at the heart of the company’s consumer-oriented buyers.