Apple has never reported a decline in iPhone sales. That may be about to change, however, with seven top Apple analysts all predicting that the company is either experiencing — or on the verge of experiencing — a drop in the number of iPhones being bought.
The latest is Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who has lowered his iPhone estimates for the first calendar quarter of 2016 from 62.5 million to 55 million. He’s also scaled back his iPhone shipment prediction for the June quarter from 48.5 million to 45 million, as revealed in his most recent note to clients.
In a handy summary by Business Insider, the major analysts’ iPhone forecasts look like this:
Piper Jaffray, Gene Munster:
December: 75 million to 76 million (up 2%)
March: 55 million (down 10%)
Full-year 2016 (not given)Pacific Crest, Andy Hargreaves and Evan Wingren:
December: 72.7 million (down 2%)
March: 49.5 million (down 20%)
Full-year FY 2016: 213 million (down 8%)Kulbinder Garcha and his team at Credit Suisse:
December: 76.9 million (up slightly)
March: 51.9 million (down 15%)Stifel, Aaron Rakers and team:
December: 74.7 million (flat)
March: 56 million (down 8%)UBS, Steven Milunovich and Peter Christiansen:
December: 75 million (flat)
March: 50 million (down 18%)
Full-year FY 2016: 220 million (down 5%)Morgan Stanley, Katy Huberty:
December: 74 million (down 0.6%)
March: 52 million (down 15%)
Full-year FY 2016: 218 million (down 6%)Raymond James, Tavis McCourt and Mike Koban:
Full-year FY 2016: 224 million to 229 million (down 7.2% on the low end)
As you can see, analysts are hardly in total agreement with one another, but this is certainly suggestive that the iPhone train could be starting to slow down. Then again, with the overall stock market down and AAPL stock still taking a battering for a variety of maybe-real-maybe-not reasons, perhaps this will turn out to be as wrong as all the previous Apple doom predictions.
Do you think iPhone sales are about to take a hit? Leave your comments below.
Luke Dormehl is a U.K.-based journalist and author, with a background working in documentary film for Channel 4 and the BBC. He is the author of The Apple Revolution and The Formula: How Algorithms Solve All Our Problems … and Create More, both published by Penguin/Random House. His tech writing has also appeared in Wired, Fast Company, Techmeme and other publications.
