It’s been a crazy day of rumors. Rumors about iPhone 5 sales slipping, the iPhone 5S coming out this summer, an Apple TV event in March, an iTV launch in September, and something about the 4.8-inch iPhone 6 being “delayed” until 2014. Busy day… but all of that info came from one guy, Peter Misek. And that guy is basically the Digitimes of analysts when it comes to correctly predicting Apple’s next move.
As an analyst for Jefferies, Mr. Misek has a long and comical history of making some crazy claims about Apple’s future plans. Who can blame him? It’s his job to predict the future of Apple so investors can make decisions. The problem is a huge amount of his predictions were wrong, especially when it comes to the Apple HDTV, where Misek has (so far) been almost universally off-point.
Here’s a run-down of some of Misek’s “greatest” predictions.
Prediction:In April 2011, Misek said Apple was going to launch a “far reaching” video service to disrupt traditional TV businesses. Misek’s main argument was that Apple’s new data centers are too big to be just for music, so they have to be for a new video service.
Reality: Apple launched iCloud in October 2011 along with iTunes Match in November 2011.
Prediction: In September 2011,
Reality: Apple launched the iPad with Retina in March. There has never been any evidence to suggest they made a million iPad 2 HDs.
Prediction: In March 2012,
Reality: The Apple HDTV is still not on the horizon.
Prediction: A month later,
Reality: The Apple HDTV is still not on the horizon, and there is no evidence it is in production.
Prediction: Feeling the heat in June 2012, Misek claimed Apple would unveil their HDTV at WWDC.
Reality: The only hardware Apple announced were new MacBook Pros along with a preview of iOS 6 and Mountain Lion.
Prediction: In August 2012, Misek claimed that Apple’s HDTV is in full production and that Apple is going to sell them with a subsidy through Verizon and AT&T starting in early 2013.
Reality: Verizon and AT&T both have their own TV services, but Apple isn’t attached in any way.
Prediction: In December 2012 – Peter cited “supply chain source” to claim that iPhone 5 part orders have been cut drastically.
Reality: Tim Cook personally shut down Misek’s rumor and said you can’t get a handle on Apple by look at one or two points in Apple’s huge supply chain.
Prediction: Today(!), Misek claimed that Apple would throw an Apple HDTV related event in March.
Reality: The Loop’s Jim Dalrymple — who, unlike Misek, actually does have reliable sources within Apple — says it’s not happening.
Peter also think the iPhone 5S is going to come in 8 colors, have NFC (although it almost definitely won’t), and a Super HD camera. And when none of his Apple HDTV predictions panned out, he blamed it on Sharp rather than admitting his sources were wrong.
To be fair, Misek has got some predictions right over the last few years. For example, he predicted the name of the iPhone 4S when everyone else called it the iPhone 5, that it would boast HSPA+ speeds, and that it would come to Sprint.
More often than not, though, Misek’s track record is just comically wrong, especially when his famous pink elephant — the rumored Apple HDTV — is concerned. If you ever see an Apple rumor with Misek’s name attached, take it with a huge lump of salt. We’re not saying he’s always wrong, but this is not the kind of informed source with a flawless track record you build your newsday around.