Will iOS Macs Dominate Like iPad Does?

Never in the history of consumer electronics has there been a computer more universally desirable than the Apple iPad.

Market share numbers — 83% of the market — hint at the popularity and market dominance of the iPad.

But here’s the most interesting fact about the iPad’s incredible success that most people overlook: The qualities that make iPad desirable are replicable on bigger platforms — and may even be magnified by them. Which is why it’s perfectly reasonable to predict dominant market share for the iOS-like Mac desktops of the future.

First, let’s understand the unprecedented popularity of the iPad. 

Android Users Want iPads

Maritz Research surveyed 2,500 smart phone users about which tablet they would prefer. The results were surprising.

Some 41% of Android phone users said they would prefer an iPad, the highest score of any tablet by far. While 19% said they wanted a Samsung Galaxy Tab, 15% would choose an Amazon Kindle Fire.

What’s missing from this list of products is the dozens of viable Android tablets which, if included, could add up to exceed the percentage desiring an iPad. And the Kindle Fire is an Android tablet, too. I suspect that if asked according to platform, rather than product, the Android fans would prefer Android tablets over iPad.

In fact my own spectacularly unscientific poll on Google+ found that an overwhelming majority of my circle friends on that service would prefer to receive an Android tablet over an iPad as a gift. That result says more about who’s on Google+ than what the general public prefers.

I think it’s clear that although the Android platform for tablets is favored by Android phone users, the iPad is the most desired individual tablet product among Android phone users.

If Android phone users want iPads, BlackBerry users REALLY want them. About 53% said they want an iPad, compared with 8.5% who want a BlackBerry PlayBook. (That’s even less than the 12% who want a Kindle Fire and 11% who want a Samsung Galaxy Tab.)

Consumers Want iPads

The overwhelming preference for iPad among users of non-iOS smart phones shouldn’t surprise. After all, they’re people, too, and people overwhelmingly prefer iPad.

A ChangeWave survey found that among the public in general, 65% want an iPad, 22% want a Kindle Fire. The Samsung Galaxy Tab came in at 4%, and all other tablet makers fall into the fatal under 1% category.

Kids are people, too. A recent Nielsen survey found that 44% of children ages six through 12 wanted an iPad — by far the most desirable consumer electronics product. (The iPod Touch and iPhone came in second and third place, respectively.)

Another category of people who want iPads: People who already own one. Strategy Analytics found in a survey that half of all iPad owners plan to buy another one within the next 12 months.

Professionals Want iPads

While the Indian government has been trying to get dirt-cheap $35 tablets into the hands of millions of school kids (it’ll never happen — a far smaller number will end up with tablets costing much more than $35, and the students will hate them), Indian Parliament members have all voted to get iPads for themselves at Indian taxpayer’s expense.

Do iPads make good financial sense? Could be. Financial Planning conducts an annual tech survey. The most recent one found that 40% of all financial advisers already own tablets, and one-third more intent to buy one next year. An overwhelming majority — 85% — own or intend to own an iPad.

And while iPads are considered consumer electronics devices, some 90% of IT professionals surveyed by the Enterprise Device Alliance already are using tablets — usually in pilot programs — and three-quarters of those deployed are iPads.

One reason IT pros are testing iPads is that executives at their companies are already using and loving them. Another reason is apps.

The iPad has the most apps because developers love iPads, too. A new survey from Appcelerator and IDC found that 88% of developers are “very interested” in developing for the iPad. (The iPhone numbers were even higher.)

Doctors want them. Pilots want them. Teachers want them. Small retail businesses want to use them as cash registers.

So What Happens When Macs Are Giant iPads? 

OK, so the iPad is hugely popular. Two facts make this especially interesting and almost unprecedented.

First, runaway hit products are nothing new. They happen all the time. But the normal cycle is that a super awesome product hits, it dominates the market for a few months, then a rush of competitors come along that provide choice, bringing that hot product down to earth as just one of many desired by consumers.

The iPad has been on the market since April of 2010 — a year and eight months ago. And in that time, many rivals have shipped, and some are on their second versions. Yet the iPad continues to reign supreme; it’s still off the charts in the Gotta-Get-It department. The only other product I can think of to achieve this is the iPod.

The second fact is that nobody “needs” an iPad.

Nowadays, you “need” (in a first world sort of way) a mobile phone and an Internet-connected PC of some kind.

Because most iPad owners and prospective owners already have both mobile phones and computers, they don’t “need” an iPad.

There’s almost nothing an iPad can do that can’t also be done by a device already owned by the user.

It’s a pure luxury item. Yet Apple is selling millions of them every month, while some rivals are trying to figure out how to cut their losses and get out of the market.

Part of the reason for this is that the iPad is by far the best expression ever of the old Apple vision of a “computer for the rest of us.” Here’s a computing device that infants can use — even cats can use it.

It’s an intensely personal personal computer that thrills the mind with its physics and instantly responsive gestures.

So here we have an unnecessary device that everyone clamors for because of the easy-to-use UI. Most people have no idea what they want an iPad for, what they’ll use it for, and what it’s good for. They just want that UI.

The iPod was as dominant in its day (before the stand-alone media player was obsoleted by the iPhone) as the iPad is today. But the qualities that made the iPod hot weren’t transferrable to desktop computing. The iPad’s are.

So what happens when the iPad user interface is applied to a full-powered computer?

What happens when the iOS user interface goes up in size on bigger mobile tablets, big desktops and TVs? Will the same frenzy of desire take place?

I don’t think there’s any chance in the near future that Apple desktop systems will get 83% market share — the PC industry is too slow-moving and shackled by lock-in. But I can easily imagine, say, 50% market share within ten years in markets like the United States, Canada, the EU, Australia and Japan, once the “magical” qualities of the iPad are fully applied to Macs.

If a tablet nobody “needs” is as popular as the iPad is because of the user interface, just wait until that user interface appears on a device type everybody does need.

Mike Elgan

Mike Elgan writes about technology and culture for a wide variety of publications. Follow Mike on Google+, Facebook and Twitter.