The days of iPhone sales growing year after year could be over with the iPhone 6s, claims an investment advisor for KGI — citing a stalling smartphone market in China and an underwhelming Force Touch feature as the handset’s big selling point.
The unnamed KGI analyst — who is more than likely Ming-Chi Kuo — says that Apple is likely to sell between 65 and 75 million iPhones in the last quarter of 2015, which would signal either zero or possibly even negative growth for the company.
If true, this would be in striking contrast to what we’ve heard previously, suggesting that Apple has placed a record order for its first wave of iPhone 6s and 6s Plus handsets. Compared to the 70-80 million iPhones Apple ordered last year, this year the company has reportedly increased that number to 85-90 million units, representing a new all-time high for Apple.
With that said, there’s no doubt that the Chinese smartphone market is slowing down — something which represents bad news for Tim Cook, who has been outspoken about his belief that the country represents Apple’s future biggest market.
According to the unnamed KGI analyst, Apple has reduced its orders for new iPhones by 1 percent.
The argument about Force Touch is that it has not exactly ignited sales for either the MacBook or Apple Watch. I don’t see that being a particularly fair comparison, since Mac sales are a much smaller part of Apple’s business and continue to grow as a category, while the Apple Watch is a totally new product with no official sales figures.
At some point, Apple’s phenomenal run with the iPhone setting new records each year certainly has to come to an end, but personally I’d be surprised if it turns out to be the year when Apple introduces its most significant incremental “s” upgrade in history.
Will you be buying the iPhone 6s? Leave your comments below.
Via: GforGames
Luke Dormehl is a U.K.-based journalist and author, with a background working in documentary film for Channel 4 and the BBC. He is the author of The Apple Revolution and The Formula: How Algorithms Solve All Our Problems … and Create More, both published by Penguin/Random House. His tech writing has also appeared in Wired, Fast Company, Techmeme and other publications.
21 responses to “iPhone 6s sales could be a big disappointment for Apple investors”
I’m considering it but Apple has to give the user a way of getting rid of the apps they install on the phone that the user can not delete, since on my iPhone 5s I don’t use them since all they are are apps to pad Apples bottom line. What does a iPhone need a Apple Watch app on it.
Man, if Apple is expected “to sell between 65 and 75 iPhones in the last quarter of 2015” things really are going south in a hurry.
Thank you. Humble pie being eaten.
No need for humble pie, Luke! Slip of the ol’ digits, which we ALL make. Instead, check out the video of a TV studio version of “Black Coffee” by fellow Brits Humble Pie (with Steve Marriott), easily found on youtube. Now •there’s• something worthy of an essay!
IMO, if Force touch is the main selling point for the upcoming iPhone, i guess the sales will be lackluster compared to previous quarters. with the introduction of a bigger iPhone 6, a lot of people will not upgrade unless the new phone has a killer feature, new internals like RAM and camera is not enough of a compelling reason to upgrade as ios 9 will work very well on the present phones.
As much as i love my iPhone, i sense that Apple needs new products swiftly, things are beginning to look boring lately
See above. Apple releases major updates to the iPhone every other year. Which means that most people will wait until the next major release. Why buy an iPhone 6 or 6s in 2015 when the iPhone 7 will make the iPhone a fundamentally new device in 2016? 2013 was an aberration because Apple introduced a 64 bit SOC and a fingerprint scanner, and even there those changes didn’t really have app or services support to take advantage until 2014. Well Apple is going to introduce a blazing new SOC, more RAM and multitasking in 2015, but the UI/UX features to take advantage won’t come until iOS 10 (iOS X) and the 2016 lineup of iPhones (and iPads). My prediction: at that point the iPhone and especially the iPad will become full-fledged replacements for (Windows) PCs and crush all hopes that Microsoft had of making Windows 10 their turnaround. At that point Microsoft will be decimated, leaving Google, excuse me, Alphabet, as Apple’s main foe. And by then Apple will probably have a raft of cloud services (that actually work!) to take on Google, who will have to resort to abandoning wealthy markets for developing ones as opposed to directly competing with Apple.
Hardly. The 5s introduced 64 bit and fingerprint scanner. The 4s introduced Siri along with 1080p video recording. The 3GS introduced video recording.
The “S” products may not have the sexy case redesign, but they’re far from not being a major revision. Most people upgrade based on contract cycle – I.e. Every two years.
I think if it doesn’t look different people assume it’s not a major update.
i completely agree with you, unless the phone looks radically different, people wont upgrade
Decimate windows!! which world do you live in…..
Windows is not going anywhere and more so, in case you haven’t been following Microsoft strategy, Microsoft is quietly revolutionizing their tech space, trying to boost their cloud infrastructure which will be the bedrock of future computing both personal and business, Azure is second only to AWS and gradually growing…
Apple lags behind in cloud services and will continue to do so, Icloud on the web has been in beta for almost 3 years and will continue to be that way for time to come, Apple sucks at cloud computing/offerings unless a service is directly baked into IOS, it flounders and everyone knows that. Everyone has been talking about ipad being a full fledged replacement for windows for 3-4 years now and that hasnt happened yet, i agree that PC sales are flagging but its not the end and wont be anytime soon,
that is the most idiotic statement i have ever read here keep dreaming about ipad replacing windows
I completely agree with you , no matter how much multitasking and new features /accessories are added to IPad/iPhone, they will never be able to replace Windows. Let him keep on dreaming
Sell between 65 and 75 iPhones, eh? Those would definitely be disappointing numbers. I believe you meant millions.
Thanks. Have corrected. :)
I do not see why this is a big deal. It fits Apple’s general pattern is the same: every even year release is a major version with significant changes/innovation and every odd year release is a refresh that mainly updates the internals. That was the pattern with the iphone 3, iphone 4 and iPhone 5, and it is consistent with the 2 year upgrade cycles of most subsidized phone plans. People whose contracts expire in even years get the main model, and people whose contracts expire in odd years get the “S” or “C” refresh. And the main model always outsells the refresh.
People looking for this pattern to change were simply off the mark. Perhaps the iPhone 5S threw people because it introduced a 64 bit SOC and a fingerprint scanner. But really, those were just marketing/bragging points against Samsung and Google. It was a couple of years before apps started to take advantage of the 64 bit processing, and it wasn’t until Apple Pay – a major new service – that the fingerprint scanner became really useful.
So yes, you will have iOS 9, force touch, more RAM, a very powerful SOC etc. but those won’t really be taken advantage of until 2016 with the iPhone 7, which will have multi-windows with the apps and services to fully exploit it. You should also expect a UI redesign to go with it. (Which would be appropriate since it will be iOS 10, or iOS X if marketing has anything to say about it.)The new SOC, multi-windows, the larger screens, and the UI redesign will make iPhones and iPads legitimately challenge laptop computers. I wouldn’t even be shocked were Apple to come out with docks for the things so you would be able to hook them up to a mouse, keyboard, monitor etc. At that point the iPhone or the iPad would be able to truly replace a PC and still cost less than a MacBook or iMac, and it would also make the poor, neglected Mac Mini obsolete possibly.
So wait until 2016 and the iPhone 7. Unless your contract expires off year or you are switching from Android to iPhone, who is going to run out and get an iPhone 6s when everyone knows that the real changes are going to come next year?
I am planning on upgrading my iPhone 6+ for the 6s+. I made the mistake of purchasing the 64gb version and am cramped. I need 128 or preferably more if it becomes available. Force Touch doesn’t appeal much to me at all, but that may change when I see it in action. I will also be upgrading my iPad mini.
Remember, it was KGI who wrongly predicted 54 million in iPhone sales for last quarter.
He has a spotty track record at best.
I’m on my normal upgrade schedule. I’ll be buying a new iPhone this year as normal. If there’s a subsidy from AT&T I’ll remain a customer. If not, I’m leaving AT&T with one of my phones and will be trying out T-Mobile. That’s basically my plan.
“iPhone 6s sales could be a big disappointment for Apple investors”
But it won’t be.
“Will the iPhone 6s mark the end of Apple’s boom period?”
No.
“The days of iPhone sales growing year after year could be over with the iPhone 6s, claims an (unnamed) investment advisor for KGI”
Riiiiight.
I’ve upgraded every year since the 3GS, but I’m NOT going to this year even though I have an upgrade available to use on Verizon. Imperfectly happy with my 6. And, it took me several years to learn that the S models are what I would call “experimental” models. When they introduced Siri with the 4S it sucked, and I never used it. Apple improved it the next year. When they introduced the the Touch ID with the 5S, it also sucked! It stopped working after 2 weeks. A year later with the 6, they drastically improved it, and it hasn’t failed me yet. I’ll wait next year for the 7 which will likely have a new form factor. Perfectly happy with my 6 for now. Waiting for the iPad Pro, though!
Moving to T-Mobile is an intriguing idea, but I have 3 phones on my plan and would have to get the agreement two other people to do it. I like John Legere and his disruption.
I love these “Apple, the most successful company of all time, is poised for failure” stories. “Don’t be fooled by record-breaking sales, ground-breaking products, and worldwide customer loyalty, folks! Get out now!”