Predicting the future of any technology is a risky proposition. Weird, unexpected things happen that no one can anticipate. Lest any of us forget, for a brief moment in 1998, many assumed that DVD-Audio would replace the CD before something called Napster totally changed the game.

But predictions of the future are fun (why else is speculation about Apple so fascinating?), and everyone gets in on the act at some point. The latest to try to imagine what comes after the iPod is Rick Rubin, the bearded producer who launched the career of the Beastie Boys and revived those of the Red Hot Chili Peppers and Johnny Cash. He’s legitimately credited with helping to break hip hop worldwide, but I hardly think his abilities to accurately read the new sound 20 years ago has anything to do with his ability to guess how we’ll get our music.

“You’d pay, say, $19.95 a month, and the music will come anywhere you’d like. In this new world, there will be a virtual library that will be accessible from your car, from your cellphone, from your computer, from your television. Anywhere. The iPod will be obsolete, but there would be a Walkman-like device you could plug into speakers at home.”

You want to know what I love about this quote? That it’s actually stating the complete obvious,  but it also anticipates a future where people treat music differently than they do now. First, yes, the iPod will be obsolete at some point in the future. And then Apple will release a new one, including one that works in speakers at home (Oh, wait, that’s been around for years). People are obsessed with the current solution instead of thinking about the needs that it meets.

The bigger question is why anyone thinks subscription music will suddenly take off, however, I can’t guess. Subscription music has never been big, dating to the Columbia Record Club. We’re probably only a year or two from a time when we can put our entire iTunes libraries into a cloud we can access from anywhere, but I want it to be my library, not every song ever. I want to have access to the whole library and choose a song to download, but I want to add things to my library, not have glorified radio going on.

But you heard it here first folks: Sometimes, technology gets obsoleted!

Via Epicenter.

The iPod will get three new features at Steve Jobs’ media extravaganza Sept. 5 according to the rumor mill: a touch-screen, Wi-Fi and digital radio. I think two of three are likely:

1. The touch-screen is a slam dunk. It’s the natural successor to the scroll wheel. Who’d buy a new, high-end iPod without it? Case closed.

2. Wi-Fi is unlikely. What’s it good for? Sharing tunes with other iPod users in public, ala the Zune? Maybe, but I think not. Copy protection and DRM is too problematic. How about using Wi-Fi to sync tunes with your computer? Maybe, but you’ll still need a cable to charge the device, so what’s the point? Maybe Wi-Fi could connect the iPod to a set of speakers via an Airport Express base station and AirTunes? Seems like a lot of trouble for a pretty minor feature. Wi-Fi is good for getting on the internet, so unless the iPod is also getting Safari and e-mail, I don’t see the point of adding it.

3. Digital radio is the real killer. It’s a feature that could spell real trouble for the satellite radio industry. With digital radio, the iPod could be a portable TiVo for music, automatically recording favorite shows, rewinding live broadcasts and purchasing songs over the air. Digital radio is so consumer-friendly, it’s completely transformed the UK radio market in a couple of years, and though U.S. broadcasters seem terrified of it, the success of satellite radio is spurring them into action. As Wired News reported in July:

“In the United Kingdom, more than 4.7 million digital radios have been sold since 1999. Listeners browse station listings in an electronic program guide, pause and rewind content as it’s broadcast, bookmark specific programs or songs, and record them using postage-stamp-size memory cards. And starting in May, they can buy songs as they hear them on the radio, downloading them to computers, digital receivers or cell phones.

… IBiquity says that the HD Digital Radio Alliance, a consortium of U.S. broadcasting chains, will commit nearly $250 million in air time to promote the format in 2007. And UBC Media’s Simon Cole says that satellite’s head start in the United States might actually be good news for HD Radio. “Satellite is softening up the market,” he says. “It’s waking U.S. consumers up to what digital can deliver.”

Sunday, I caught a cab with some friends over to a favorite bar in the lower Haight. By complete chance, we got the most Mac-loving cabbie in the entire city. He was blasting music on his iPhone through the stereo, and he fixed his 4g iPod while he drove by slapping it around a bunch. Most impressively, he announced plans to sell off a recently acquired Titanitum PowerBook G4 for parts on ebay. He was a consummate wheeler-dealer.

To cap it all off, as we arrived at our destination, he pulled out his iPhone, scrolled through his video list and produced the intro movie for Leopard, which I hadn’t even seen yet. Needless to say, it was gorgeous on the iPhone. Enjoy the visuals, courtesy of San Francisco’s finest. Apple’s really embracing that supernova look, eh?

Apple just slapped NBC down hard. Responding to reports NBC was pulling out of the iTunes Store, Apple announced that it was prematurely canceling their partnership — Because NBC wanted $5 per episode of its shows!

Apple® today announced that it will not be selling NBC television shows for the upcoming television season on its online iTunes® Store (www.itunes.com). The move follows NBC’s decision to not renew its agreement with iTunes after Apple declined to pay more than double the wholesale price for each NBC TV episode, which would have resulted in the retail price to consumers increasing to $4.99 per episode from the current $1.99. ABC, CBS, FOX and The CW, along with more than 50 cable networks, are signed up to sell TV shows from their upcoming season on iTunes at $1.99 per episode.

Incredible. NBC has benefited from iTunes more than anyone else, and they’re throwing out crazy price increases. I mean, that would have made Friday Night Lights Season 1 cost $110! NBC is selling the DVD for less than $20 brand-new with more special features! If this is any indication of Hulu’s pricing scheme, it’s screwed out of the gate.

Via Daring Fireball.

Rick James pic from CBC.

A lot of mystery remains about Apple’s big iPod event next week. Will we see widescreen touch iPods (what were known as “true” video iPods before the iPhone showed up)? Nanos with video? A shuffle that can scramble your brain?

What is certain is that, for once, Steve Jobs won’t demonstrate a new iPod video with a clip from “The Office,” as NBC Universal has announced its withdrawal from the iTunes Music Store as of December, according to the New York Times. While it’s possible that existing content will remain or that NBC will offer new content on an as-chosen basis like Universal Music has, it’s more likely that NBC is packing up its toys for Hulu.com, the bizarre commercial video service that NBC and News Corp. promise to launch “real soon now.”

This is a huge blow — NBC makes up 40 percent of all video sales, and I can’t think of a recent iTunes event that didn’t feature an NBC show, which really says something, given Steve Jobs’s close ties to Disney and ABC. Not a sign of doom, but a clear sign that Apple isn’t as secure in video as it has been in music.

Via Apple 2.0.

Just got the chance to watch this absolutely hysterical video that demonstrates the iPhone as rendered by Microsoft. It savages the company every which way for some typical and not-so-typical flaws that show up in MS products. It’s so spot-on, in fact, that it reminds me of the notorious “Microsoft iPod” commercial from a few years back.

Of course, that spot turned out to be generated by Microsoft itself, so it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that this is of similar origin. It’s the kind of video you watch yourself to remember what not to do, you know? Especially since the user who uploaded it has no other videos on YouTube…

Via Apple 2.0

Leopard isn’t even here yet, but the first big Easter Egg has already turned up. All icons for the new version of Mac OS X are resolution independent (basically, they can scale to be freaking HUGE), which provides all kinds of room for mischief. Apple has already taken advantage, printing the full text of the first “Think Different” commercial (Also known as “Steve’s back in town, boys!”). Ah, memories

Italian site Macity turned up the thing, which makes them responsible for my tears. I’m not crying, though. I was just cutting onions — making a lasagna.

For one…

Via Digg.

Next Wednesday’s Apple event will likely see the announcement of the next evolution of iPod, dubbed the iPod Touch. Which is a little bit weird, because the iPhone is obviously the next evolution, what with its revolutionary multitouch interface and the widescreen and the like. So this week, we’re all sort of praying for an iPod with a big hard drive, multitouch, and maybe iTunes purchasing via WiFi. A hard-working country mouse to iPhone’s city slicker.

But in really thinking about where Apple might go (and in the spirit of free-wheeling rumor-mongering), I must admit that a possibility I haven’t seen much of anywhere is that the new iPod would carry over the breakthrough Internet browsing device piece of the iPhone puzzle. As much as I would love an iPhone, its storage capacity is far too small for my iTunes library, and my phone is fine as a phone. I just want awesome multitouch web-browsing and e-mail. If Apple is going to the trouble of building WiFi into the next iPod, it would be a complete waste not to put in real Internet capabilities — even if it steals some iPhone thunder.

All of which leads me to think that the new iPods will remain free of wireless connectivity. Apple isn’t one to give away the farm, and the iPhone is clearly designed to one day completely replace the iPod line. They cannibalize up, not down.

What do you think the next iPod will be (let’s leave the hideous iPod nano phat out of the conversation for the time being)? Widescreen evolution or iPhone web browsing revolution without all those pesky phone calls?

Image via Gizmodo

Unafraid of Apple’s lawyers, Think Secret has a gallery of gorgeous screenshots and icons from the latest build of Leopard (9A527), which was released to software developers last week.

Above is the large version of the new Network Utility icon. According to Think Secret, almost all the icons in Leopard are now bigger, better and brighter.

And just as the icons are getting bigger, so too are the applications. According to Think Secret, Address Book has grown from 25.2MB in Tiger to 47.7MB in Leopard; Safari has grown from 6.5MB to 51.9MB; and Mail has grown from 49MB to 279.7MB.

Hacker genius Erling Ellingsen has made his own $2 multitouch input pad from a plastic bag full of blue dye and an iSight camera. He’s also hacked the iPhone’s accelerometer that allows you to control the phone by tipping, rotating or shaking it.

Ellingson’s jury-rigged multitouch input pad lets him control his computer with his fingers, just like the iPhone or Jeff Han’s futuristic multitouch table. Using a bag of die and an iSight camera beneath it, Ellingson can navigate the Web, move chess pieces and play a virtual keyboard. How it works exactly is not clear, but check out the impressive video:

Ellingsen has also hacked the iPhone’s accelerometer, allowing him to control various homemade iPhone applications by tilting, rotating or shaking the iPhone. Ellingsen has created three demo apps controlled by tipping and shaking: a virtual Steve Jobs bobble-head that bobs its head when the phone is shaken; a maze that is navigated by tipping and turning the phone; and a virtual box of balls that roll and bounce as he rotates the phone. Again, see the impressive video:

Ellingsen has released the source code for the iPhone hack, and he’s asking for people to submit their ideas and vote on suggestions for what to do with it.

So far, he’s thinking about an iPod+Nike-like pedometer, a Labyrinth game, SmackBook navigation for Safari and a virtual pet that’s shakeable, among other ideas.

(Via Waxy)

Apple just sent out invites to a special media event at San Francisco’s Moscone West convention center on September 5 at 10AM — and music is clearly the theme.
There’s been lots of speculation that new iPods are on tap, including stubby, ugly iPod nanos and a touchscreen iPod Touch.

There are many measures of Apple fandom. Some people hoard old machines and keep them in pristine running condition. Others get tattoos and unfortunate haircuts.

And then there are those who drop cash on limited-edition lego replicas of Steve Jobs and Woz. No, I’m not making this up. According to Ars Technica, the sets go on sale tomorrow at 9 p.m. Eastern. You can be one of the few, the proud, the Mac proud.

Via Digg.

Photographer Frasier Spiers spotted this chappie with an Apple ‘do at the weekend grand opening of Glasgow’s new Apple store.

The rest of Fraser’s pictures in this Flickr set capture the character of Glaswegians better than any other the other pictures I’ve seen from the grand opening.

One of the things I thought strange about the other picture sets was the absence of drunks. If you’re out all night in Glasgow, you’re certain to encounter a few. Well, Fraser captured one. Fraser says this young man was extremely drunk, and boasted about his sexual prowess to the waiting line for hours.

I thought this guy was a drunken thug, but he’s nerd from GlasMUG cheering people on.

And here’s a kid who queued for hours in a Che Guevara shirt. Fraser writes: “The irony of wearing a Che Guevera (SIC) hoodie whilst queueing for hours to attend a retail store opening is beyond parody. “I wanted an iPod Shuffle for Christmas, but my mommy says that Apple exploits the workers! I got a packet of seeds and a sickle instead”¦.”

(Thanks Oleg for noting Fraser’s pictures in the comments).

The latest build of Leopard (build 9A527) has a default desktop that looks like some kind of Star Trek supernova in outer space, according to a leaked screenshot.

Here’s what it looks like in use. The outer space theme is used at least twice in Leopard: the Time Machine backup app also has a spacey UI.

As Phil Ryu notes, with the cosmic backdrop, Leopards’ interface looks like the control deck of a futuristic spaceship looking out into void.

Could Apple be trying to imply that Leopard is so advanced it’s positively science fiction?

After learning that the teen who first unlocked the iPhone got a Nissan 350Z for his efforts, Wired News editor Kevin Poulsen is willing to trade his classic Nissan 300-ZX for an unlocked iPhone.

Kevin’s car is similar to the car Woz drove (see below), but it needs a bit of TLC, so you might want to offer him an unlocked Razr instead. Or maybe just a regular razor. You know, for shaving. Bids in the comments please.

Via Fake Steve.

Two Apple geniuses from Apple’s new store in Glasgow, which celebrated its grand opening this weekend. Photo by Setteb.it.
Gary Allen of IFOAppleStore, who travelled to Scotland from Berkeley to attend the grand opening, noted that the doorway smelled of urine. Scots are notorious drunken urinators in shop doorways. Link.

Photo by Stillframe

Many wireless companies will unlock cell phones after the initial one- or two-year contract has been fulfilled. But AT&T says the iPhone is “different” and won’t be unlocked at the end of the contract:

AT&T will unlock phones for customers once they have fulfilled their contracts, which typically run one to two years. One big exception: Apple’s iPhone, distributed exclusively in the USA by AT&T. “That’s different,” says AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel.

USA Today.

Once upon a time, way back in 1984, the Mac was new. Let us travel back to the past for another look into the amazing first issue of MacWorld, which I acquired two weeks ago at a family reunion.

This week, let’s turn to “Polishing the Mac,” an extraordinarily long interview by David Bunnell (almost 4,000 words) with Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates that is basically just about the Mac’s greatness. I’ll tease with a choice quote, then click through for some more of Chairman Bill’s still-prescient (and now hilarious and ironic) praise for the Mac. Also, dig the hair and glasses. Could he look more like his Anthony Michael Hall doppelganger if he tried?

On the Mac’s Ease of Use: “The Mac heralds a major change in how people view and interact with application programs. That’s why I’m so excited about it. There’s no question that I’ll let my mom try it out.”

Much, much more after the jump.

In response to a story I posted about a fixed Mac getting repeatedly shipped all over San Francisco, including to a CompUSA, reader Jonathan has produced quite possibly the most appalling story ever, from his attempts to fix an iMac with Apple New Zealand. It’s unbelievable.

Wednesday, day 8. I phone up at lunchtime, hows my Mac doing? Huh? What? The technician is just installing the parts right now and the MAc should be ready some time thisafternoon, but we’re still waiting on the replacement mouse? WTF?

later that day Apple call back. Your iMac is ready to be picked up. What about the mouse? No we’re still witing on that. Can I have my old mouse back in the interim? No, we have to keep that to send back when we get the replacemnet Mosue.

And that’s just the part about the mouse — Jonathan took it in because of a broken SuperDrive. You simply must read on in… 

The time has arrived. All of us cheapskates who’ve been holding out for cheaper iPhones have been thrown a frickin’ bone. At Apple’s online store, we can now purchase factory refurbished iPhones for a full $100 below retail price. Which makes it just an arm and a bit of a leg instead of the whole limb.

I am surprised to see the refurb discount be so deep — this suggests that Apple has had to replace a lot of iPhones here in the early going. Who’s sent theirs back? Go ahead, you can tell us. No need to be shy.

Via Gizmodo 

Great (and totally horrifying) story of customer service gone awry up at SFist yesterday. The writer in question had a PowerBook completely melt down and went to the San Francisco Apple Store only to be awarded a free MacBook Pro — which was shipped to CompUSA. No, really.

Yet, somehow we knew there would be at least one more hurdle before our computer woes had been resolved. Thank you, Fed Ex, for mistaking the number 760 Market (our s.o.’s office building — stalkers take note) for 750 Market, which happens to be CompUSA. Luckily, we were able to track down the package and obtain it from Scott, the sales manager at CompUSA, who not-so-subtly scolded us for not buying the computer through CompUSA.

Wow. That totally puts my worst Genius Bar story to shame, which was getting a free hard drive replacement in a PowerBook, but then having the video cable get crimped in the process, leading to spontaneous black-outs — and then losing the computer temporarily.

Anyone else had bad experiences with Apple Customer Care to balance all the good ones we’ve all had?

Feast your eyes, folks. Who likes the Z-Car? Woz likes the Z-car! Because it’s AWESOME!

Via Epicenter

Very cool post up at Apple 2.0 right now about the connection between press attention and Apple’s marketing efforts. Essentially, as Leander has argued before, the company lays off the advertising a little bit when interest is high. Phil at Apple 2.0 decided to see if Apple then pumps it back up again when things tail off. None-too-surprisingly, press hits about the iPhone are way down from two months ago. Last week, after the company rolled out “All These Years” and “All the Parts,” the volume of iPhone stories went up again.

Check it out, it’s great.

Apple’s new iMac has one of the coolest, thinnest keyboards ever released. How does it stack up to where the company came from? Blake Patterson set to find out, shooting a fascinating set of other keyboards next to it for comparison, including the Newton, the Lisa (seen above) and the NeXT keyboards.

Very nice.

Via Daring Fireball