Android’s marketshare is on the decline for the first time ever. Phones based on Google’s mobile operating system hit a snag in March… and it’s likely to continue in the U.S. when the iPhone 5 is released in September, says one analyst.
Android’s share of the U.S. smartphone market in March fell to 49.5 percent from 52.4 percent, according to IDC. By contrast, Apple’s share rose to 29.5 percent, up 12.3 percent during the same period. “This is just the beginning of Android’s share loss in the U.S.,” Needham’s Charlie Wolf claims. He forecasts more Verizon subscribers will switch to the iPhone when Apple launches in September the iPhone 5, a GSM and CDMA handset. Additionally, the Apple handset may also become available on Sprint and T-Mobile, meaning the device will be available to all U.S. subscribers, no matter the carrier.
What’s more, the September launch of the iPhone 5 could be the real test for Verizon. Wolf describes the initial launch in February as “tepid.” This also points to a reason why Apple did not announce the next iPhone at its WWDC in June, as the tech giant has done traditionally. To unveil the new iPhone then would have “upset Verizon subscribers” who just bought the iPhone 4, according to the analyst.
What do you think? Can Apple really reclaim market dominance with their one phone to rule them all, or is this a fluke and will Android quickly claw its way back?
Ed Sutherland is a veteran technology journalist who first heard of Apple when they grew on trees, Yahoo was run out of a Stanford dorm and Google was an unknown upstart. Since then, Sutherland has covered the whole technology landscape, concentrating on tracking the trends and figuring out the finances of large (and small) technology companies.
66 responses to “Analyst: The iPhone 5 Will End The Android Empire”
Well, I think the competition is good. It will keep Jobs & company busy and we shall get better products.:)
As per numbers, they will keep changing and it is impossible to eliminate the green Droid.
Yes, competition is good and I think Apple will start to claw back some, but not overtake. There are just to many versions of Android capable phones.
All the hyper-mutual-annialation language that has crept into all facets of American culture really does obfuscate the need for actual perspective which in turn gives us a tiny shot at discovering some truth along the way. Apple and Google have locked iOS horns and this is very good for them and for us [consumers]. I’m an Apple fanatic, but I never want Apple to be without healthy competition always nipping at its heels. Android will rise and fall over time, just like Apple will, and maybe some other viable iOS options will come along that will give those two a run for our money, and it will all bode well for us. Even if Apple takes the lead in the overall iOS market place I don’t believe that Android is going away anytime soon. I know lots of Android users and they love their iOS devices about as much as I love mine. All is well… Compete long and hard, and prosper.
If the September is true, I’m sure I can wait just 3 months more
As much as I like the iPhone and iOS line of products, what will happen is that the dozen Android phone manufacturers will ultimately cut costs through use of cheaper components and reducing OS ‘improvements’ like Sense and Motoblur. This will allow in cheaper subsidized Android phones will them starting to show up advertised as free even. Then they will gain more marketshare.
Apple already fought this battle with Windows and the scenario will be the same. However what Apple needs to continue focusing on is making the best products they can. People who value quality will continue to purchase their products. People who value dollars over quality in their wallet will not.
Market share is good, but its not everything. I don’t think Apple will ever eclipse Android as long as they are flooding all the carriers with thousands of different devices. People will just buy them because they are cheaper and available. If there was a cheaper iPhone maybe.
Important thing is to continue dominance in how much is made per device so they can continue to build the best phones out there. Developers seem to want to stay iOS too because its a better ecosystem and easier to make money (even with the pains). Apple is in a good position now that Android has hit its high point.
I would suggest that for Apple to ever truly topple google and their Android platform, Apple would have to change their high end only approach and release a lower end phone that more people can afford. If such domination is even something that they are interested in. To take nothing away from Apple and their products, the simple fact is that they are too expensive for many people to afford. This does seem to be working out for them and making them a silly amount of money but is certainly not an all conquering approach.
iOS is Apple’s proprietary mobile operating system, based on OS X – Android and iOS are two different kinds of mobile OS…
I’m hoping Apple can think of something either ground-breaking, or new to the iPhone, for the iPhone 5/4S. With the iPhone 4 it was the radical design change, front facing camera and Retina Display that were brilliant – I hope they can do something similar with the iPhone 5/4S. And as others have said, what’s wrong with a bit of competition? I think life would be a bit too boring if Apple had no one to compete against.
Apparently you seem totally unaware that Apple/AT&T do have a “lower end” iPhone on the market. The iPhone 3Gs has a base price of $49.
I’m hoping that Apple *doesn’t* do the same thing they did with the iPhone 4: They were already outdated when they launched. The Evo had the dual cameras (front-facing and rear) and a bunch of other features before the iPhone 4. Apple needs to be 2 steps ahead…not just matching the competition.
Apparently you’re unaware that the phone is tethered to a very expensive data plan and the initial cost is a small percentage of the cost of ownership. Are you unaware of that – totally.
I’d better sell my Android phone before it’s no longer supported. Or maybe it will become a collectible.
all smartphones are teathered to expensive data plans…android or iOS or RIM.
are you suggesting Apple make a phone with the capabilities of a Motorola RAZR?
Absofu***enloooooootly.
And how is that different from any other subsidized phones?
Unfortunately, it’s the carriers, not Apple or Google, that are setting plan prices and they’re equally high for all smart phones, high or low end, iOS or Android based.
So if a company has a feature and you come out with the same feature a month later you are outdated. You cant revolutionize the industry every year!
Google and android is a necessary evil. They are needed so Apple can be better at being Apple. Kind of like the space race.
I believe they will claw back but also have the majority share of the smartphone industry. Maybe 35 % or something. I dont think android is going to go away and I dont think it should. Competition is good and there are many ways of doing the same thing. Not everyone loves apple and not everyone loves google. But as long as they both exist they make each other better.
All smart phones are NOT tethered to expensive data plans. You are forgetting that many people live outside of the US. Here in the UK I can buy a smartphone that is SIM free and has no data plan at all. I pay more but can put a sim from any company I want. Great for when travelling as I can avoid roaming charges.
And before you dismiss that as relevant, how much of Apple’s revenue comes from overseas sales rather than US sales do you think? Try to begin to recognise that the US is not the whole of the world, and we now live in a global economy. We Are Legion!
This is the same old suggestion that we hear all the time. Apple’s products are “too expensive”, blah blah blah. Apple doesn’t do low-end. Even their low-end products are high-end by comparison to other products on the market. Apple fell behind Android only because there are a lot more phone makers selling Android phones, while iOS phones are only made by Apple. Android is CRAP. The fragmentation of the platform makes it difficult for developers, and for customers. As an email service provider, I’m sick and tired of how some Android phones work great with Active Sync email servers, and others don’t. I have never been impressed with a single Android phone. The graphics are nowhere near as good as the iPhone, and the UI is awful.
Just to be clear, I like iOS, at least on the iPad. I would also probably buy an iPhone if I had the funds. I do not begrudge Apple their position at the top end of the market. My comments are merely to the effect that in positioning themselves there, they have ensured that their products are not for everybody. As such, it is hard to see them ever killing off Android as there will probably always be lower priced handsets as a refuge to keep the brand alive. In some respects though, I find it all the more impressive that they have managed to seize such a large market share whilst sticking exclusively to higher priced products.
Yes, absolutely, low end Android stuff is probably not a patch on an iPhone. I only have the iPad to compare to from personal experience but the version of Android on my cheapo Wildfire is certainly not as nice to use as iOS on that device. It lacks the out of the box usability and definitely seems less stable. But I buy what I can afford that will come as close as possible to doing what I want it to.
I do not know of any UK provider at least that offers any recent iPhone with a combination of a low up front price and a cheap tariff. My Wildfire is a poor option in comparison but cost nothing up front and £12 a month. That is probably not even the best deal around. I don’t know what counts as cheap to everyone else reading this but that is more what I have in mind.
Please note, I am not pimping the Wildfire as a direct competitor to the iPhone. It is not. It is not a great phone at all but it does a decent job for the price.
See my other comments about Apple’s market position though. More power to them if that is what works for them. I may even buy more of their products as I can afford them but I do find suggestions to the effect that Apple will kill competitors off to be just a little silly. Much of their competitors business is not in the same part of the market.
I have read this article and read a good deal of the comments here in the bowels of commentspace. I own a Nexus One (still) and an iPad 2 (just downgraded from iOS 5 beta back to iOS 4.3.3). I consider myself a nerd and I am looking forward to the Ice Cream Sandwich update for Android which will bring hardware acceleration and their new UI to phones (and if you think that name is bad, iOS is using Mexican states for codenames right now) and iOS 5 with its FINALLY copying the notification system from Android, but more importantly integrating an amazing new cloud service.
Now that I’ve explained all that I have one thing to say to this article and all its comments so far:
My GOD you are a bunch of fools if you think company A is going to destroy company B with consumer product X. And moreover, if you think that the American economy is the only standard that matters when the phone market in Asia is far outstripping our western counterparts (British/European here myself), then perhaps you should stop going to the same class as George W Bush.
I would be one of those guys who thinks they’re smart and tells the journalist to stop posting pretentious analysts -video game analysts are even worse than tech analysts, I don’t respect any of them- and start giving us some real news about things we do know, like how smooth the new multi-gesture commands in iOS 5 are looking.
However, for now I’ll just post this and have a good hearty laugh at the different breeds of fanboys and fangirls, all knowing very little about even the products they are fans of let alone competitors, as they go around making idiots of themselves. Ultimately though this kind of tech blogging, and the unintelligent “debates” it creates, can be genuinely pathetic to read.
tl:dr?
Too bad, read it.
Dont be so stupid. While you can buy an android handset for half the cost of an iPhone, android will continue to sell on a metric butt ton of handsets.
“if a company has a feature and you come out with the same feature a month later you are outdated” Yep. Or at least you’re not as innovative. That’s why companies want to be “first-to-market”.
i’m a kind of unwiitting fanboy , early 40’s first really computer was a apple mac love it, then lost touch entered the windows corporate world , even brought a blackberry when everyone was buying iphones and kinda regretted it without ever admitting it
now i have a mac pro at home, imac at work iphone and ipad , perfectly happy but my loyalty isnt blind, a friend has a great windows 7 phone, fortunately he doesnt know how cool it is.
my point is this .. i’ve migrated to apple because i have a need to live in the 21st century BUT bar some apps there a millions who are having the same fun elsewhere and there will come a time, and there WILL when someone starts making gear that uber cool even by apple standards and money permitting i’ll be there
sorry for rambling ..first post but love simply cool products wherever they come from
In related news, after four consecutive days of rain, analysts predict wet weather until the end of time.
The amount of variables involved in market share models make forecasting almost infinitely difficult, so to take two data points and extrapolate forward to talk about the demise of a major player in the market is utter naivety, putting it politely. Ed Sutherland, you seem mature enough to understand this, so how does uncritically embracing such over-simplification help anyone?
It’s disappointing that someone with good insights and intelligence is more interested in making enemies than they are in convincing people of their good ideas. I hope that changes with experience. I think you’re dead right, but no one’s going to change their perspective if you talk at them like that.
Analysts have given that to make a comparison with
the iphone, the price of a phone with Android, should remain constant,
but it is not. So think Android phones with iMedia browser is always venderenno and the decline is by saturation. With IOS5 you Dectretare that they will sell more iPhones, is tough.
http://www.technorotic.com
You are right, that was a very mean spirited and cynical post I made above. But then again, that was the whole point.
I really don’t hate people for what their tastes, or reasons for having those tastes, are and if you’re happy with what you’ve got then why the flying spaghetti monsters should a stranger on the internet care right?
However, this kind of stupid, inane, asinine, unintelligent, moronic, ignoramus-spawned blog post just rubs me completely the wrong way. Quoting some arse-headed analyst and spinning a blog title calling Android an “empire” and iPhone 5 (which we still know squat about except for iOS 5 and A5) as being the vanquisher of this empire is just plain poor form.
This right here is NOT journalism, this is spin-doctor media-taught unintelligent, unfounded and unsupported diatribe which has only one purpose: Get people like and I, those of us with vested interest in the subject matter, to talk about this piece of crap post and shoot the pageviews up and up and up and away!
I don’t hate the writer, analyst or blog. I just want them to pack this predictable and pointless sh*t in! Since I found no one else in the comments pointing out how asinine this entire post and the arguments it has spawned are, then I thought I would do so myself.
I agree with you. I find a lot of blog articles here have a very fanboy spin to things. This is a Apple blog so I expect almost all articles to have something to do with Apple but I for one want to know the facts about whats going on with all of their fine products and services in relation to other markets and players.
Is there only a positive to these market shifts for Apple or are there new phones and OS updates from Google that will also affect the mix later? Where was the gain in iOS coming from (not the Android side)?
I have bought an Android 2.3 tablet from China for 200USD include shipping about 6 months ago. The tablet have the following hardware: Armv7 Neon Accelerated CPU Clocked at 1.2GHZ, 8″ Touch screen, 512MB DDR3 RAM, Wifi built-in, G-sensors etc And I like it more than iPad and here is why:
+Built-in HDMI Output, I can connect this tablet to my big screen TV without docks/converters. A minihdmi to hdmi cable was included. This cable is available everywhere for about 1USD. I can watch 1080p movies, Play 3d g-sensor games (Raging Thunder etc), Watch youtube, Browse etc fullscreen on my big screen tv by simply connecting via built-in hdmi.
+I can not connect 3g to my wifi only ipad, But I can connect usb 3g dongle to this Android 2.3 tablet from China. It have real USB host built-in, Not miniusb, So I can connect 3g USB modem (And it works great) as well as USB keyboard, External HDD.
+It have microSD HC card slot and it is convenient to connect a 32GB MicroSD card to it.
+Flash Player support – I can watch youtube using the Youtube apk or built-in player without Flash, But a lot of websites are having embedded Flash movies that I can not watch without Flash. So Flash is very useful in such cases. I am getting rid of Flash ads simply by setting the “Plugins” settings to on-demand. Then it won’t load any Flash movie unless I click on it.
+Android Market is working and I can install any applications outside of market without unofficial hacking.
+I can play nearly any format on it. For example I could not run IPTV stream with H264/MPEG4-TS/AAC on ipad. But I can run it no problems with players for Android like vplayer which is available from Android Market.
Can i device give me all this for 200USD?