The Apple Watch is still searching for its “killer app,” claims a new report — arguing that the lack of a “must have” use-case is stopping Apple’s wearable device from achieving its sales potential.
The analysts in question suggest that the Apple Watch will sell between 9-12 million units this year.
For those keeping track at home, that’s more than the 7.5 million units the iPad sold in its first fiscal year, and way more than the 5.4 million iPhones Apple sold in year one.
Since both of those markets exploded the year after (iPad sales quadrupled in 2011, while the iPhone became, well, the iPhone) I don’t think Apple has too much to worry about going forward — particularly as the Apple Watch becomes more of a standalone device.
9-12 million units is about in line with the more conservative early analyst predictions. Gene Munster previously argued that first-year Apple Watch sales would be around 10 million, while Trip Chowdhry overcompensated for his Apple doom predictions if it didn’t release an Apple Watch by May 2014 by predicting a whopping 42 million unit sales.
The “killer app” argument is an interesting one. For those unfamiliar with the term, it was first applied to computers in the 1980s when the spreadsheet VisiCalc suddenly made it clear to big businesses and home business owners why they’d want to buy a personal computer.
Since then, there’s been a lot of discussion about whether or not the term is relevant — with an articulate case against it being made by ex-Appler Ken Segall (the man who came up with the “i” naming strategy.) Segall’s case is backed up by recent research showing the broad range of things people use their Apple Watches for.
Do you think Apple Watch is hurting because Apple and developers are failing to provide that “must have” app that makes your non-techie dad or partner run out and buy an Apple Watch? Or would 9-12 million be solid first year sales that are going to explode from here?
Leave your comments below.
Source: Digitimes
Luke Dormehl is a U.K.-based journalist and author, with a background working in documentary film for Channel 4 and the BBC. He is the author of The Apple Revolution and The Formula: How Algorithms Solve All Our Problems … and Create More, both published by Penguin/Random House. His tech writing has also appeared in Wired, Fast Company, Techmeme and other publications.
20 responses to “Apple Watch still in need of its killer app”
For me, and everyone I show it to, Apple Pay is the killer app. It gives me a “we are living in the future” frisson every time I use it.
I can’t agree less. Apple Pay on the watch works fine but isn’t so much more convenient then pulling your phone out and is a touch more embarrassing . That’s the problem with the watch. The apps typically replicate things that are easier to do on the phone.
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It is if you only have a 5s.
More to the point though is that WatchOS 2 hasn’t been released yet. Until that’s available there will not be a killer app. We’re currently on the “save an HTML 5 link to your iPhone” phase. Once native apps appear then people can begin to push the envelope.
I agree. The Apple Watch lacks the killer use case to date. I’ve had mine since day one and I appreciate having it during meetings and dinners where I can screen activity on my phone in a discreet way, but the rest of it is all kludge and a waste of my time. Glances stop being glances when you have to wait for screen shots to upload from the phone and you have to tap the watch face two or three time to check when your data has finally appeared. That is one of the worst software compromises Apple has made in a long time and all of us patient early adopters should get a gift card for our trouble.
I look forward to the new era of native apps. If something is going to pop, it will come in the next few months. I’m not a doctor (or an expectant parent) but the AirStrip demo during the keynote does begin to hint that native apps will have some real power to them.
I will be watching the WatchOS reviews carefully in the months ahead.
At some point I suppose we’ll be able to lock our doors, turn off lights, ovens and other electronics in the house using the phone. But when you start relying on your phone for these tasks, a battery dead phone is potentially dangerous! And at this point I think people will want to control these things using their watch, which has a longer battery life.
So when I’ve left home and stop and think “Did I remember to turn off the stove?” I’d love to just say to my watch “Siri, turn off my stove” and get the reply “Your stove is already turned off”.
The delay in launching Watch OS2 can only be hurting Apple Watch. As someone who travels around Europe, a better Maps (sorry Apple, Google maps is still streets ahead, pardon the pun!) with an integrated local information system and local transport system, would be my killer App.
Ease of access to triage notifications, Siri becoming something much closer to a personal assistant on your wrist for reminders, etc and Apple Pay is already the killer app.
Apple Watch has had a killer app from day one – Messages. The point of the Apple Watch isn’t some mythical app to solve a problem we don’t have but to replace a time telling device on your wrist which only tells time with one which gives you insta-glance notifications. The “killer app” is a use case.
It’s own cellular chip will be the “killer app”. When I can go for a run or out to the store and still stay connected, it will become much more useful. Cellular will be like the iPhone getting the App Store. I’ve had my watch since the first day and I really don’t find it that useful.
I agree, whether you call it the killer app or killer use case the Apple Watch is still kind of spaghetti on the wall waiting to see what sticks. It’s great for a 1st gen product but it hasn’t found its purpose yet — or what it replaces. I remember when the iPhone first came out Apple did lots of “regular people” videos showing how they rationalized the purchase. People would hold up their phone, PDA/contact book, and crappy P&S camera and say it is now a single device. That was the killer part: convenience, connectivity, and small/simple. I still can’t see what the watch replaces that makes my life more convenient, connected where I want, and it isn’t small enough yet. Maybe the 2nd gen watch will solve a bit of that. Maybe watch OS 3 might make it an independent device? We’ll have to wait and see. In the mean time it’s more a fun to have fashionable item than a must have device that is clearly moving the industry forward.
My poppa always used to say ‘if you can’t say anything good, don’t say anything at all.’ Well, I am not sure anything NEEDS a killer app. If it does, then this implies that device really only has one purpose. It use to be phones were JUST phones. Isn’t that their ‘killer’ app? I never considered a particular program on a computer to be a ‘killer’ app. A computer for one person is much different than it is for someone else. A graphics artist, for example, uses a computer for a much different purpose and uses much different apps than, say, an accountant or an engineer. I would have a tendency to think that is more not the app but the technology itself that is the ‘killer.’ For me, I needed to warm up to the Apple Watch. I still think it is overpriced but it does what I expect it to and am quite satisfied with its function. It shows me my blood glucose values through my Dexcom sensor (a huge plus), it serves as a remote for my entertainment system, and it shows me the time and other extraneous data including weather that I use several times a day. Let’s not mention mirroring my phone on calls and texting. It serves its purpose. Isn’t that what should be ‘killer?’
As a person with Type 1 diabetes, I think this device has had a while now the “killer” app. I can at a swipe of a finger glance down and see my blood sugar level and determine if it is going up or down. For non diabetics, probably many of you, you can’t understand how important and convent this is. I would hate to lose this functionality.
That’s not a “killer” app, that’s a “lifesaver” app.
A universal identity authenticator that financial institutions are hooked into so that any transaction conducted supposedly by you, does not go through until it checks with your Apple Watch which uses bio authentication (based on the dermal pattern read by the back of the watch?) to approve the transaction. There are different levels of approval: automatic for small amounts, positive input (fingerprint reading?) required for larger amounts, and perhaps notification but no approval beyond a threshold (transactions in your name which you want to know about and protect against right away, such as someone opening a credit account using your identity). Basically, a system to reduce the risk of identity theft to virtually zero. The authentication network can also be used to make identity checkpoints such as entering concert halls, boarding planes, checking out library books, go much smoother. For me, only Apple can do this because I don’t trust anyone else, such as Google, to respect user privacy.
I think my hesitancy in buying the watch is, most of health tracking is still done manually, by diligently logging every little thing you do after everything you eat, or go to sleep, lol even your period(which my gf did for 2 months then gave up, like any sane normal person would do) Really who the heck has time to remember to log all this crap. And that’s a problem for me, I have absolutely no motivation to keep track of all that. It would be like counting your steps every day and manually logging the number. Since I don’t have to count my steps and my phone logs it for me, I actually use the pedometer feature. We’re shifting into a world of more and more connected devices, specifically, devices that can log in depth health data (like that “smart cup” that can tell you the ingredients and calories of you beverage), I have not read nor heard anything about the watch connecting and communicating in tandem with external fitness/health trackers. I don’t own a watch so maybe I’m just unaware but I feel it would be more useful if you could pair it with other smart tracker devices, like a fitbit for example. Having trackers on both arms(and the shoe attachments) would drastically increase the accuracy and types of data the “iWatch” and Health App could use. Maybe this all already exists, but if that’s the case then whomever is responsible for advertising/branding the watch should be fired cause that message is not coming through, all I know is that for $350+ I can send my heartbeat to people…
For me, the killer “app” isn’t really an app at all, I need care free health tracking functionality before I could invest, otherwise I would be buying into a lifestyle of logging headaches I don’t need in my life.
que the defensive apple fanboys->
Its “killer app” will be watchOS 2
Everyone likes the refer to the “killer app” situation from the early PC days. But the iPhone doesn’t have a killer app nor does the iPad… their killer app is the app store. Meaning so many apps for so many purposes, everyone can personalize it for whatever they want to do.
But having a ton of apps for the watch isn’t going to be its killer app. Nor will even one or hundreds of killer use cases that are only marginally more convenient than doing the same thing on our phones.
The watch will become indispensable when artificial intelligence is applied to it so we are truly being pushed only the information we care about, when and where we care about, and that information is rich and actionable or even passively doing things for us. Unlike the phone, the watch is guaranteed to be secure since it knows its still attached to our bodies and will lock itself when its taken off. We shouldn’t have to launch an app for anything.
Here are a few examples of what I’m talking about:
* Doors on our house, cars, and hotel room automatically unlocking and locking for us, not just based on our proximity but the relative proximity of other family members or guests. Same thing with our computers and phones unlocking and locking, lights turning on and off, etc. No need to open an app or even hit a button on a notification.
* Email, Facebook, and other social networking notifications that the watch knows we want to get based on time of day, whether we have something already on our calendars or not, etc. and showing us enough of the message that its useful and letting us respond immediately to accept or ignore an invite, like or comment on a post, etc. It should continually learn our preferences based on how or whether we respond to notifications.
* Similar rich, actionable notifications for early flight check-in, requesting a first class upgrade, confirming we’ll be on time for a dinner reservation, etc. as much based on time, location, direction traveling, etc. as automatically as possible with certain things requiring a quick tap on a button to confirm or deny. These events shouldn’t have to even be manually added to our calendar, it should scour our work and personal email or have direct access to these services.
All of these things can be done our phone. Typically with launching an app or through manual configuration of alerts across various social feeds and email. What I’m talking about is the watch doing just the right things at the right time and prompting us only when its unsure what we’d like done.
Give me a cheap continuous ( every 10 minutes ) blood sugar check for my Diabetes and I would buy one immediately.
I am type 2 Insulin dependant
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