Every Time Apple Sells 5 iPad Minis, It Will Lose A 9.7-Inch iPad Sale [Report]

Every Time Apple Sells 5 iPad Minis, It Will Lose A 9.7-Inch iPad Sale [Report]

The iPad mini’s little price tag could have an impact on 9.7-inch iPad sales.

Apple’s upcoming iPad mini is set to shake up the tablet industry for a second time later this month. Its 9.7-inch tablet is the king of premium slates, and the smaller model is expected to dominate the entry-level market. But it won’t just cost rivals like Amazon and Google — it’ll cost Apple, too. You see, for every five iPad minis sold, the Cupertino company is expected to lose one 9.7-inch iPad sale.

That’s according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who says iPad mini sales could reach more than 5 million units during the December quarter — assuming the device goes on sale on November 2, as expected. That would make the device a huge success, but it could have an impact on 9.7-inch iPad sales.

Based on that forecast, Munster predicts Apple could lose one million 9.7-inch iPad sales during the same three-month period. With a price tag between $249 and $299 for the base model, some customers who may have been planning an iPad purchase could be tempted to go for the smaller, cheaper model as opposed to the larger one.

Even so, the upcoming iPad mini announcement has led Munster to increase his forecasted iPad sales from 21 million units to 25 million units for the December quarter. He also added 8.5 million iPad sales to his 2013 forecast, estimating a total of 95 million units sold, with a quarter of those being the iPad mini.

Even though the iPad mini may mean less 9.7-inch iPad sales, it’s going to mean more iPad sales overall for Apple. And more sales means more App Store users, more iTunes users, and a bigger boost to the iOS ecosystem. Apple’s hardly going to mind losing a few iPad sales if it leads to bigger profits, then.

Munster says the iPad mini could be available in a number of different colors and capacities, and that there could be a cellular version as well as the Wi-Fi-only model. We’ll find out for certain on October 23 when Apple’s event takes place in San Jose.

Related
  • FriarNurgle

    Why are these analysts so stupid? Of course the iPad mini has the potential to impact sales of the regular iPad. So does refurb and last gen iPads. But loosing sales of a million regular iPad units is a bit of a stretch. The majority of impact from the iPad mini will occur in the lower prices tablet market, i.e. Android.

    I respect some commenters on the tech blogs more than these analysts.

  • Steffen Jobbs

    Why are these analysts so stupid? Of course the iPad mini has the potential to impact sales of the regular iPad. So does refurb and last gen iPads. But loosing sales of a million regular iPad units is a bit of a stretch. The majority of impact from the iPad mini will occur in the lower prices tablet market, i.e. Android.

    I respect some commenters on the tech blogs more than these analysts.

    Gene Munster just likes to hear the sound of his own voice. He talks as if he knows more about what’s going on at Apple than Apple itself. He’s obviously just guessing since the iPad Mini hasn’t even gone on sale yet. He’s never used one nor has anyone else. I don’t know how he can form any conclusion about the future of iPad Mini sales that would be accurate. If schools suddenly started purchasing iPad Minis by the cartful, that would be a whole new bunch of users and that would throw off Munster’s predictions by quite a bit. As far as colors are concerned, does Apple need to take on more SKUs considering there’s more than enough already for the iPad Mini without adding in colors.

  • Len Williams

    Let’s define what an “analyst” is: He/she is someone who has very few facts, has heard lots of rumors and makes guesses based on incredibly incomplete information or even makes stuff up, but who expects us to believe that he/she knows what he/she is talking about.

    How much effort does it take to figure out that some people who were thinking about buying an iPad will opt for the cheaper, smaller iPad? Duh! This is NOT news and most people can figure this out for themselves. Somehow Munster takes the negative spin on it that the mini will eat into big iPad sales. How about changing that around to the positive side: Apple will be offering a choice of big and small iPads. Now the consumer gets to choose the size and price range that fits his needs and budget. Hooray! But then, that’s not “news” because there’s no “conflict.” Apple will be gaining millions of new customers and selling minis to boatloads of its old customers. There’s no downside to this.

  • Boris Terekidi

    Lets take the lower-end models
    5 iPad minis = $1250
    1 iPad = $500

    If Apple has the same profit margin (%) for both products, selling 5 iPads Minis will give Apple EXTRA 150% profit. I don’t see how that is a bad thing.

  • yankeesusa

    Like no one knows apple is going to make a lot of money on the mini iPad. I just hope that it’s internal memory is bigger than 8gb and has a retina display. I use 16gb on my phone and it’s getting full pretty quick.

  • Thistle

    FEWER 9.7-inch iPad sales, not LESS, please

  • technochick

    I call bullshite on this. 90% of the folks that buy a mini were folks that were never going to buy a full sized iPad in the first place. So they aren’t costing Apple any full sized sales.

    So rather than Munster’s “for every 100 mini sales, that’s 20 lost full sized sales” it’s more like “for every 100 sales, that’s perhaps 10 lost full sized sales (these folks weren’t committed to the full size unless forced into it by work, school etc) and 90 folks that didn’t get a Nexus 7, Kindle Fire etc”

  • technochick

    Let’s define what an “analyst” is: He/she is someone who has very few facts, has heard lots of rumors and makes guesses based on incredibly incomplete information or even makes stuff up, but who expects us to believe that he/she knows what he/she is talking about.

    You forgot “then makes up rumors about production issues etc to cover up he/she was wrong”

    Or as I like to put it
    Analyst: someone paid to talk out of his ass

  • technochick

    If schools suddenly started purchasing iPad Minis by the cartful, that would be a whole new bunch of users and that would throw off Munster’s predictions by quite a bit.

    Great example. 99% of schools haven’t even tested tablets yet. Perhaps due to costs or because they are full of smaller kids that the teachers feel would have trouble with a big tablet. A smaller, cheaper tablet might get them to change their minds. So that’s potentially thousands of no sales that weren’t ever going to get the full sized ipad, suddenly getting the smaller one.

About the author

Killian BellKillian Bell is a staff writer based in the U.K. He has an interest in all things tech and also covers Android over at CultofAndroid.com. You can follow him on Twitter via @killianbell.

(sorry, you need Javascript to see this e-mail address)| Read more posts by .

Posted in News | Tagged: , , , , , , , , |