Could the MacBook Air offer a future for notebooks? That’s the belief of one Wall Street analyst who says notebooks could make a comeback with tablets coming out on the losing end.
“The evolution of Apple’s MacBook Air laptop suggests that notebooks and tablets are converging,” Sanford Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi told investors Tuesday. That convergence is driven by the increasing use of low-power processors and solid-state storage.
“In the next 2-3 years, we believe OEMs will offer notebooks at the weight of the original iPad with touchscreen and integrated keypad capability for under $1,000,” Sacconaghi writes. “Ironically, availability of such notebook devices might undermine tablet sales, rather than vice versa,” the analyst notes.
Such a converged future could take two forms, one being Apple’s iOS “ecosystem,” with App Stores, hardware and services combined. Such a future could mean a 28 percent compound annual growth increase for the Cupertino, Calif. tech giant with Apple pushing PC makers to single-digit growth, according to the investor note.
So, in other words, this guy seems to be arguing that notebooks will become more tablet-like over the next two or three years. We doubt that’s going to kill off tablets… and certainly not the iPad. What do you think?
Ed Sutherland is a veteran technology journalist who first heard of Apple when they grew on trees, Yahoo was run out of a Stanford dorm and Google was an unknown upstart. Since then, Sutherland has covered the whole technology landscape, concentrating on tracking the trends and figuring out the finances of large (and small) technology companies.
48 responses to “Will MacBook Air Revive Notebooks… And Help Doom The iPad?”
I think now that the iPad has been in our grubby little hands it’ll be awhile before it goes anywhere. It’s just soooo convenient to browse the web and do email and apps from the couch or my bed!
-Chris
http://friendsofmac.net
Nope, within the next 3 years I highly doubt a notebook could shed 50% of its weight to match a current tablet or iPad. And if it could why wouldn’t that iPad or tablet shed 50% of its current weight and be even more convenient? The analyst’s assumption doesn’t take into account tablet technology getting better.
Nope! They are different beasts. I travel with the AIR when I need a real Mac. THe iPad when I need a large iPhone that weighs 0.5x an Air. The analyst as usual has it wrong. What the Air kills is the low end Mac Book line – especially with iCould. It’s really simple!
Yes, notebooks will get thinner, lighter, and have touch screens. So will desktop computers. But it won’t eliminate tablet computers.
The split keyboard of iOS 5 is going to change how we use the iPad once again.
Saying that people want to go back to notebooks instead of the tablet format ignores all of the places that are using iPads (medical, education, aviation, etc.) BECAUSE it isn’t a notebook. It also ignores the huge popularity of eInk devices.
I do forsee better docking situations where tablets will take advantage of keyboards and monitors when desired (like the Asus Transformer)…but my guess is that the “traditional” CPU and notebook will grow to be more like tablets, not the other way around.
I think its a silly comment. As systems like the Air get lighter and ligher, and have technologies where the keyboard can be hidden, they aren’t going to replace the tablet, they are going to become the tablet.
If Apple comes out with a device in two years that weighs the same as the current iPad, but has a clamshell case that can be folded down behind, will it be called the iPad 8 or the Macbook Air 2014? And will it really matter which name it has?
So what is happening to the tablet whilst the notebook is undergoing this miniaturisation and weight shedding? Is it anticipated that it will remain static? For a start, would it not be expected that it too could become lighter and more powerful for the money? More to the point though, is it also anticipated that it will suddenly leap in price to $1000+? I mean, surely that is one of the clinchers here. There will always be a market for cheaper products, as long as they offer the user experience that many are looking for. Or a close enough approximation to be worth the saving.
Probably also worth bearing in mind that, so far, touchscreen laptops have remained niche products. Including those that try and offer tablet functionality. Perhaps it is a market that Apple will figure out how to crack but it seems rather early to make that judgement.
@Chris Brunner, I don’t have the iPad, but using a MacBook Air is just as convenient and portable if you want to bring it into the bed or anywhere. Unless ipad comes with a real keyboard like the macbook air, I think the air’s will outsell the ipad. No?
It will be a laptop config with a 180 degree fold over screen with touch capability possibly 2 years away to take advantage of upcoming tech. ( OLED screens, more compact SSD’s,need for less storage) It will be a “Do Everything” device with phone capability via link.
why does one always have to come at the expense of the other? I mean really, who’s going to just have one?
are you dumb… ive seen articles that are misguided before, but un;ess it touch running ios it not going to kill it….
I own both and I can tell you that neither one of these devices cannibalizes the other. They are completely different animals. I use the Air to work and produce. I use the iPad to read and consume. I use the Air on the hotel room table, I use the iPad in the hotel room bed. I use the Air at Kinkos, I use the ipad on the toilet.
half the weight of the macbook air? no way. quote from a story about john ive regarding the macbook air:
“With the MacBook Air, he told me it’s, metallurgically speaking, about as far as you can actually go with aluminium before you start disrupting molecules.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/hom…
composite materials could help make up some of that ground (and apple is looking into this), but there is no way a 13″ notebook is going to get down to 1.5 pounds.
also, the idea that all these notebooks will have touchscreens is wrong. remember the initial ipad keynote? steve jobs says they tested putting a touchscreen on a laptop and it sucks. the user gets tired of holding their arm up to move objects around. HP made a touchscreen PC years ago and it never caught on. I have already seen some other companies coming out with touchscreens on laptops now (e.g. ASUS) — they suck. Tablets are a different animal and people use them differently. Both laptops and tablets will be useful in the future and they may converge, but not in the way these stock brokers think they will.
Will the Air kill the tablet market? Sure, why not? But it won’t touch the iPad. Only idiots seriously believe there’s a “tablet” market anyway. There is an iPad market and a separate “iPad-like keyboardless computing product substiture” market. This analyst merely compounds the error by trying to put the Air in the mythical “notebook” category. Nobody cross-shops OSX devices with Windows small plastic computers.
WTF? No. The analyst is looking at the hardware only without taking the software and the user experience into account.
iPad sells to people who *hate* computers, and the average computer user doesn’t even know how to install or uninstall an app. iOS will take over the majority of the market from OS-X devices based on that fact alone.
I don’t think increased Macbook Air sales will doom the iPad. I am thinking about buying a Macbook Air myself and own an iPad. Will most likely buy an iPad 3 when they are released as well. They serve different purposes in my mind. I am not going to open up Zinio, LA Times, Kindle, Nook or iBooks apps on an Air and read in bed or play touch screen games on it. It will be easier to hand the iPad to my autistic stepson so he can watch a movie in the backseat. I am not going to use the Air as a remote for my home automation system or entertainment system.
Likewise, my wife won’t use the iPad to write her short stories and novels. The Air would be better suited for that. The iPad is great for presenting spreadsheets and reviewing documents but not as great at creating them.Both devices have their place, along with the desktops and servers in my SOHO network. If anything, I believe the tablet will become more capable and like the Macbook Air. Was hoping for a 128 GB iPad this year and was disappointed. Maybe next year. Couple that with better dictation and voice command and it can become a very capable device. So instead of a desktop in every bedroom, I’ll have an iPad in the future. I can see computers being more portable and the average desktop being removed from the total equation.
Apple is toying with my emotions, first they make me fall in love with my iMac then the iPad and now the Air.
“I use the Air on the hotel room table, I use the iPad in the hotel room
bed. I use the Air at Kinkos, I use the ipad on the toilet.”
Why you dirty little bitch!
If they were to make it both a netbook and ipad… Imagine the netbook in the picture above with an ipad for a screen. You fold the keyboard all the way back and it functions as an ipad. Don’t fold it, and it remains your netbook, but with a touchscreen. The orientation of the keyboard determines the functioning OS (ios or osx) and it’s actions.
Steve – just send my check to…
And what about a notebook with a detachable screen, so you can use as a tablet?
I just bought the Macbook Air for my wife, and the Ipad2 for me.
The Macbook surprised me. It’s thin, fast e light.
I think something like the Asus Eee Pad Transformer will be the future of laptops (or netbooks) and tablets.
you get a tablet and a “laptop”. If you want to have a tablet, you undock it and you can carry it around. If you need to type or do more laptop/netbook-like stuff, you just dock it.
The problem I see is not everybody can afford a laptop and a tablet. This way you can get both.
That’s one of the reasons why I’m looking at (possibly) picking up a next generation transformer. cannot afford to buy a tablet and a netbook/laptop, but this way I’m able to get both.
It would be cool if apple did something like that, but it probably won’t happen. :(
Last time I checked, Apple’s notebooks were selling quite well – at record breaking levels even. It’s PC notebooks that are declining.
Fewer people are buying netbooks because their target market has realized that an iPad can serve the same function (email, web, etc.) better with far superior battery life, performance and portability. And ultimately, who wouldn’t rather have a state of the art tablet over a bottom of the barrel netbook?
As a Professional User that creates content, I am reading this article and commentary with a slightly sour look on my face. My needs are for slightly heavier iron that the wee pretties. So while I find both the iPad and the Air charming little slabs of electric crack, I can’t do prepress, high end photo work or serious web development on them. My sort of folk are wondering if Apple and Steve forgot about us.
Yeah, I’m whining. But I remember when the Mac towers got both t3h shiny AND braggin’ rights first. LOL.
I think you guys should stop writing and making predictions under the influence of weed.
I LOVE this comment! Ha ha. I’d venture to say that a lot of people who own an iPad or just a tablet of any kind… do use it on the toilet. Much more convenient than a laptop. Ha, this just made my day haha.