Tablet sales are expected to more than double in 2011, not so much due to first-time buyers, but from upgrades. The iPad could follow the trail broken by Apple’s iPod, creating a brand-loyalty that lasts for years, one analyst reasons.
Of the 24 million tablet sales projected this year, growing to 44 million by 2015, “the lion’s share will be iPads, despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012,” Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman Epps said.
Attempting to explain why tablet users will quickly grow to 82.1 million by 2015, Epps said it is another reason why iPad sales cannot be likened to PC replacements.
“One major assumption that changed in our model is the replacement rate, which we think will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs,” according to the analyst.
Unlike PCs, which often are seen akin to a toaster or an everyday device, consumers often view the iPad more like a TV or game console.
“Tablets are proving themselves to be ‘lifestyle devices’ at home and at work, and as much we think consumers will upgrade to new models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC,” she said.
What impact will this have on plans of iPad users when Apple releases the iPad 2? “Many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new (likely Facetime-compatible) model,” the Forrester Research analyst adds.
The report does not reconcile the apparent difference of expected tablet users versus tablet sales. If upgrades will comprise most sales, the number of tablet owners should remain relatively steady, rather than be double the number of devices sold.
