If you want to offer a tablet not powered by iOS or Android, you might want to cool your heels until the next decade. Apple’s iPad and various Android-powered tablets will control 90 percent of the market through at least 2017, researchers announced Monday.
What’s more, forgot about Samsung or RIM challenging the two tablet leaders. Look instead to Windows, but then as only a distant third choice, according to research firm In-Stat. The key is building a base of software developers and publishers that ship alongside your tablet, a huge advantage for Apple and Google, researchers say.
“Not supporting one of the leading OS platforms is likely to lead to the failure of several companies in the tablet market due to lack of application support,” In-Stat announced. Key evidence: HP’s decision to kill the webOS-based TouchPad, which never caught on despite repeated price cuts.
Still, there is room to grow. By 2017, 250 million tablets will ship, more than 10 times the 17 million devices in 2010. More than half of those will have 9- to 11-inch screens, seeming to put the kabosh on talk of 7-inch alternatives, such as RIM’s PlayBook or Samsung’s Galaxy Tab.
As in smartphones, wireless carriers “could have a tremendous impact on future tablet demand,” the researchers say. However, there’s likely not to be any carriers putting bets on non-Apple or non-Android devices. That’s even more probable given the dropping of webOS, the reluctance to support the embattled RIM PlayBook and the consolidation of Motorola under Google.
Ed Sutherland is a veteran technology journalist who first heard of Apple when they grew on trees, Yahoo was run out of a Stanford dorm and Google was an unknown upstart. Since then, Sutherland has covered the whole technology landscape, concentrating on tracking the trends and figuring out the finances of large (and small) technology companies.
9 responses to “iPad Will Dominate The Tablet Market Until At Least 2017… With Some Help From Android”
It would be nice if Apple could hold 65% tablet market share for a few years. Those kind of numbers work wonders for a company’s share price. Looking forward to see Apple’s reserve cash reach $100 billion by the end of next year. I’d be even happier to see Apple share price at around $430 by the end of this year, but that’s looking less and less likely. Amazon and Netflix always seem to have a leg up on Apple despite Apple’s really high price targets.
Talk about a self-serving news release. HP’s exiting the market completely destroyed the validity of InStat’s research, so what do they do? Wait to find out what HP’s plans are for WebOS? No!! They just make believe it never happened!!
An undergrad who submitted this paper would get flunked. InStat wants to use it to drum up business, even though they know it’s baseless and useless.
Once all of this economic turmoil dries-up, Apple’s stock price will go over $600. Guaranteed!
I don’t want to see Android pass iOS until they deserve it. iOS in tablets is fantastic.
Well done. Where do I get a crystal ball just like yours?