Apple may follow the same launch strategy it used for the iPhone X in 2017 with its first foldable iPhone. While the company will reportedly unveil the device alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup, it may not open preorders or begin sales until later.
That’s according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who shared the latest details about the foldable iPhone’s launch timeline in a post on X.
In 2017, Apple launched the iPhone X alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus. However, the iPhone X wasn’t available for purchase until November 2017. That’s two months after its initial announcement on September 12, 2017.
Kuo predicts that Apple will follow the same strategy with the foldable iPhone. He draws a parallel between the iPhone X and the foldable iPhone to illustrate his point.
The iPhone X was the first iPhone to feature an OLED display, Face ID and the TrueDepth camera system. This made it difficult to manufacture. The foldable iPhone will be similar to the iPhone X in that it will be the first iPhone with a folding display.
Due to this, Kuo believes Apple may not open preorders or begin selling the foldable iPhone until Q4 2026. In a post on X, he says the company may need additional time to build enough inventory to meet the expected demand.
The holiday season may hide the true demand
The analyst predicts that Apple will ship 7-8 million foldable iPhones in H2 2026, with about 0.5-1 million units coming in Q3 2026 itself.
Based on his discussions with suppliers, carriers and scaplers, Kuo says demand for the folding iPhone should remain strong until at least the end of 2026. That’s despite its rumored high price tag of around $2,500.
It’s only in early 2027 that the true demand for the foldable iPhone will be clear. By then, the initial buzz and the holiday shopping season will have passed. Given its expected premium price, Apple may struggle to maintain the same sales momentum once the initial wave of early adopters passes.
Rajesh has been writing about consumer technology for over a decade, with a strong focus on iPhones, Macs and Apple’s ecosystem. He enjoys digging into Apple software updates, hardware changes, and discovering new Mac apps that make work faster and more enjoyable.
You can reach out to him at mail[at]rajeshpandey.me.
