If past behavior is any indication of the future, Apple’s September 1 announcement could mean more coins in the pockets of savvy investors – or so says one analyst. Since 2005 (except 2008), the announcements resulted in an average 12 percent increase in Apple stock price by the end of the month. That rise nearly doubles to 22 percent by the end of the year.
“We believe that investors generally anticipate the Sept. event by the beginning of the month, and anticipation builds ahead of the holiday shopping season with Apple’s iPod lineup (along with Macs and other products) set for holiday sales,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told clients Wednesday. “However, keep in mind that historical trends are not necessarily an indicator of future events,” he warned.
However, when Apple announced Sept. 9, 2009 the iPod nano with video, stock for the Cupertino, Calif. company rose to $185.35 by the end of the month, up from $165.30 at the start of September. By the end of December 2009, Apple shares hit $210.56, a 22 percent increase.
Munster believes “Apple will hold a similar event this year to announce the first iPod touch with a camera, an updated Apple TV with an App Store, and iTunes changes, like a cloud-based iTunes service,” the analyst wrote. Hinting at the purpose for the media event, Apple’s invitation included an image of an acoustic guitar.
Updating the Apple TV from a “hobby” to one with built-in App Store support would “add new and meaningful features,” Munster said. Among the possibilities: offering Netflix streaming or gaming.
The analyst said reports of an iTV update would be a likely next step toward Apple offering an HDTV or flat-panel TV in the next two to four years, Munster suggests.
Ed Sutherland is a veteran technology journalist who first heard of Apple when they grew on trees, Yahoo was run out of a Stanford dorm and Google was an unknown upstart. Since then, Sutherland has covered the whole technology landscape, concentrating on tracking the trends and figuring out the finances of large (and small) technology companies.
