Demand for iPhone X has nosedived since the holidays, according to recent reports, which wiped $46 billion off Apple’s market value in under a week. But is that really true? Was Apple really anticipating sales of 40 million units in the second quarter of 2018?
Let’s take a more realistic look.
According to a growing number of analysts and news outlets, including the reliable Ming-Chi Kuo and big names like The Wall Street Journal, Apple cut iPhone X orders to 20 million units for Q2 2018. That’s supposedly half the 40 million it originally planned to produce.
But some say the notion that Apple would have ordered 40 million units to begin with is “idiotic.”
iPhone X was never going to hit 40M sales in Q2
Ryan Jones, an ex-Apple employee who now runs the team behind the Weather Line app for iOS, believes there’s “no way” Apple would have anticipated sales of 40 million units in Q2.
“Q2 sales for the last two years were 51.1M and 50.8M,” Jones noted on Twitter. “So 40M seems idiotic for just iPhone X.” It would mean that iPhone X accounted for 80 percent of total iPhone sales, which seems unlikely given its hefty price tag.
The 20 million units Apple has reportedly dropped its orders to would account for 40 percent of total sales, which sounds about right, Jones adds.
“Let’s just use our brains,” he continues. “iPhone X is probably 33-50% of all iPhone sales. Recent Q2 sales were 61M, 51M, 50M. If Apple forecasted 40M iPhone X, that would be 65-80% of sales to the highest end model. In Q2.”
“Nope.”
Apple probably didn’t reduce orders at all
Apple probably hasn’t reduced iPhone X orders at all, then. And if it has, it seems incredibly doubtful that they were halved from 40 million units. It seems Apple would have been crazy to ever anticipate that it would sell that many $1,000 handsets right after the holidays.
“These bullshit reports of Apple reducing production of new iPhones happen every January,” notes John Gruber of Daring Fireball. “Same thing will happen in a year, guaranteed.”
We’ll have to wait until Apple confirms its Q2 earnings to find out exactly how well iPhone X is performing. Launch sales will be revealed in the company’s Q1 report later today, but we’ll have to wait a few months to see if rumors of a nosedive are at all accurate.
Killian Bell is a freelance writer based in the U.K. He has an interest in all things tech and also covers Android over at CultofAndroid.com. You can follow him on Twitter via @killianbell.
5 responses to “Is iPhone X demand really weaker than anticipated?”
Iwould guess the short answer is yes for the Iphone X. But I assume people were exepecting that total sales number would break a new record and since that didn’t happen and probably never will again for Iphones, it´s seen as a failure. Still good numbers but it (smartphones in general) are mature products, it’s possible sales numbers won´t increase, just flat line. Bring on the next big thing… it’s time.
The iPhone peak was when it went big in 2015. It’s an 11yo product .
Apple will decline as they as a hardware company never succeeded after with a compelling non-iPhone device people want.
More and more people see a cash grab is all. The fun is gone.
Series of huge missteps from watch forward.
So where are the stories reporting that Apple’s share of the largest smartphone market in the world (China) have hit a record high of 29% market share in Q4 2017 according to Kantar?
Why isn’t the media reporting that Android has plunged a massive 10% from 81% down to 71% market share in China year over year?
Why are no journalists reporting the stunning news that Apple now has a record 25% market share in the 5 largest smartphone markets in Europe?
Why do they instead harp on about the Nikkei newspaper’s fabricated story of iPhone X weakness in the channel and supposed falling demand? (The Nikkei has reported that 3 years running just before Apple’s financial report and each time has got it wrong).
You have to roll your eyes sometimes.
Yea, haters just hate…. and many just love the meme Apple is doomed.
The “lemmings” are listening to some doom-analysts, and selling off their shares of AAPL (a.k.a “The sky is falling”). ?
Meanwhile, wise investors (in the minority at present) are taking advantage of the situation, buying up AAPL at the current artificially affected low price. It is an almost foregone conclusion that tomorrow’s quarterly report with the expected announcement of record-breaking revenues and profits, will provide very lucrative gains for those investors, when the stock price rebounds and exceeds its previous highest price. ?
This “game” seems to be played over and over, just before and after each of Apple’s quarterly reports.