Apple lowered production targets as Vision Pro demand drops for the mixed-reality headset in 2024, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. That suggests lower-than-expected demand among consumers as Apple plans to roll out the headset to new countries.
The company now plans to manufacture only 400,000 to 450,000 units this year, significantly lower than the initially anticipated 700,000 to 800,000 units.
Apple plans to ship fewer Vision Pro units amid weakening demand
This reduction in orders, even before the Vision Pro launches outside the United States, indicates that demand within the U.S. market has “fallen sharply beyond expectations,” as per Kuo’s assessment in Medium and on X.
This seems to agree with a recent assessment from Bloomberg that Vision Pro demand is dropping and that users may not use it as regularly as they once did, a vexing problem with virtual reality systems.
Consequently, Apple is adopting a more “conservative view” regarding headset demand as the Vision Pro rolls out to additional countries. Its launch in the United States seemed strong in January and led to low return rates for the device. But it seems the excitement has waned.
In addition, Kuo noted poor Vision Pro sales could impact the growth of pancake lenses and the adoption of microOLED display technology in consumer electronics.
Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED trends / Apple下修2024 & 2025年Vision Pro出貨預測，不利MR頭戴裝置、Pancake與Micro OLED產業之趨勢https://t.co/WxOjqRoh6P
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) April 23, 2024
Slowing down global rollout and new versions
Kuo had previously stated that Apple would introduce the Vision Pro in new markets before WWDC in June, suggesting that the headset could become available in other regions within the next month or so.
Looking ahead, Apple expects Vision Pro shipments to decline year-over-year in 2025 compared to 2024. The company is reportedly “reviewing and adjusting” its headset product roadmap.
Contrary to earlier reports, Kuo does not believe there will be a new Vision Pro model in 2025, revising his previous prediction of a modified version entering mass production late next year.
In a February report, Kuo mentioned that Apple was working to improve production efficiency and supply chain management, with little change to the product specifications and user experience. At that time, he estimated that a Vision Pro with significant updates would not arrive until 2027.
Kuo suggested Apple must address the Vision Pro’s limited applications, price point and comfort issues — without compromising the user experience.
