More than 100 million people in the world now wear an Apple Watch, Above Avalon analyst Neil Cybart claims.
Provided those numbers are accurate, that’s the equivalent of every single person in California, Texas and Florida, the three most populous U.S. states — and with a good few warehouses of Apple Watches left over.
Cybart — who frequently outperforms Wall Street analysts when it comes to his Apple earnings/sales projections — also claims that approximately 10% of iPhone users currently own an Apple Watch. In the United States, he claims, at the end of 2020, approximately 35% of iPhone users owned an Apple Watch.
Spectacular adoption rate for Apple Watch
Those adoption rates sound pretty spectacular. Especially when you remember that, in the years leading up to the Apple Watch’s unveiling, many analysts claimed Apple waited too long to get into the wearables market in a meaningful way. In 2020 alone, Cybart estimates, 30 million new customers bought Apple Watches. That tops the total number of Apple Watch users in 2015, 2016 and 2017 together.
Despite those big numbers, Cybart sees plenty of growth potential:
“Running with a few simple calculations, if 35% of iPhone users around the world one day wear an Apple Watch, the same adoption percentage found in the U.S., the Apple Watch installed base would exceed 350 million people. That’s 2.5x larger than the current installed base.
Of course, a 35% adoption figure when looking at the iPhone installed base may end up selling the Apple Watch far short. There is nothing preventing Apple Watch from being worn by an even higher percentage of iPhone users. More importantly, the Apple Watch’s future is one of true independency from the iPhone. Opening the Apple Watch up to non-iPhone users would expand Apple Watch’s addressable market by 2.5x overnight. A 10% adoption figure among all smartphone users around the world would amount to 350 million people wearing an Apple Watch.”
Source: Above Avalon