Apple will release all three of its new iPhone 11 models in September, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives claims in a note to investors.
That would mark a change from last year, when Apple paced its iPhone launch. In 2018, the iPhone XS and XS Max shipped in September. However, fans waiting for the iPhone XR had to hold on until October.
Ives claims that the iPhone 11 models will be released in the second week of September. That’s marginally earlier than previous predictions. SoftBank President Ken Miyauchi recently suggested that the new iPhones will be available September 20. Ives doesn’t think the pricing will differ from last year’s iPhones.
Impact of China’s trade war
The research note also focuses on the potential impact of trade tariffs on the new iPhones. President Trump announced in early August that a 10% tariff will be placed on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting September 1. That would include the new iPhone, alongside numerous other Apple devices.
Ives agrees with a previous report from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in saying he doesn’t believe Apple will pass these costs on to consumers. Ives writes that:
“With ~40% of iPhones sold globally coming out of the U.S. heading into an important trifecta smartphone launch, at this point we DO NOT believe Apple will pass these tariff costs to US consumers on the new smartphones hitting the market this September … If the tariffs go ahead as planned this will reduce FY20 EPS by roughly $0.50 to $0.55 based on our $12.80 estimate for the year with Apple looking to (at this point) absorb this first round of tariffs.”
While Apple won’t pass on these costs up front, Ives suggests this will change if a China deal isn’t reached. This is likely to cost an extra $75 to $100 per iphone. If Apple does pass these costs on to consumers, Ives thinks it could cost Apple 6 million to 8 million iPhones in the U.S. That’s based on predictions of 185 million iPhones for financial year 2020.
The 2019 iPhone refresh
This year’s iPhone refresh will likely consist of three new handsets. This will include two new OLED handsets and an LCD version. Rumors suggest they will come with the same screen sizes as the iPhone XR, XS and XS Max. The main outward difference is that they will boast new camera setups. iPhone watchers also expect that Force Touch will disappear from the XS and XS Max successors.
Ahead of launch, some are predicting that this year’s refresh will prove underwhelming. Analysts at Mizuho Securities recently suggested that this year’s iPhone models will largely “lack novelty.”