Apple analyst thinks 2016 is the year iPhone sales finally crash

Apple analyst thinks 2016 is the year iPhone sales finally crash

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iPhone 6s 3d
Will next year be the year iPhone sales start to decline?
Photo: Jim Merithew/Cult of Mac

Apple’s iPhone business may have been stronger than ever in 2015, but — never fear — the Apple doom predictors are never far away.

In this case, the doom report comes from Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty who predicts that iPhone sales will drop for the first time ever in 2016.

In particular, she thinks iPhone sales will decline by nearly 6 percent in the 2016 financial year, or 2.9 percent in the 2016 calendar year.

Given that Apple has never had negative sales growth for the iPhone, it’s certainly a bold statement to suggest that it will the year after smashing all previous records — but Huberty think that, “higher prices in international markets (ex-China) and maturing smartphone penetration in developed markets weighs on upgrades and new user growth.”

To be fair to Huberty, she’s not the only analyst who thinks this way. Back in August, Pacific Crest argued that current iPhone sales are “unrepeatable” and investors must be ready for a drop-off sometime in 2016. Respected Apple analyst KGI Securities’ Ming-Chi Kuo also thinks we’ll see a year-on-year iPhone sales decline for this year’s holiday season.

Morgan Stanley doesn’t go as far as predicting an Apple collapse, however. It thinks that Apple revenue will grow 2 percent in the 2016 financial year, with the Apple Watch and Apple TV as, “important barometers of the company’s innovation capabilities under the leadership of Tim Cook.”

Do you think iPhone sales will decline next year? While there’s no way the company can continue expanding its iPhone business indefinitely, I think that the astonishing success of the iPhone 6s, a major new iPhone launch in 2016, promising new markets like India, and Apple’s iPhone upgrade program means next year should be another one to remember.

Via: Business Insider