Apple will to sell a massive 50 million iPhones a year by 2011, Wall Street analyst Toni Sacconaghi says.
In a research note on Wednesday, the Bernstein Research analyst said Apple will achieve this just by holding onto current market share and adding new countries and carriers.
Sacconaghi’s predictions are in line with estimates from a RBC report on Tuesday, which also estimates 50 million iPhones in 2011. Apple has sold 26 million units since the iPhone’s debut in 2007. Sacconaghi estimates Apple will sell 20 million in 2009.
* More smart phones: Smart phones will grow 27% a year in 2010 and 2011, Sacconaghi says.
* More carriers in more countries: Apple could add 11 million units by adding Verizon Wireless in 2011 when the exclusive AT&T runs out. Plus more carriers in existing markets will add 3.5 million in European and 4 million in Asia.
* China: Sacconaghi estimates a deal with China Unicom is worth 2.9 million iPhones in 2011; and maybe 6 million if Apple also adds China Mobile.
The numbers could be even bigger if Apple adds pre-paid iPhones and WiFi-only iPhones, Sacconaghi says. He notes 75% of the global cellphone market is prepaid.
