We’re all expecting Apple to deliver something spectacular for the iPhone’s tenth anniversary next year, but what comes after that? According to some analysts, it will be a “decade-long malaise” that will cause Apple to fall.
Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz believes iPhone sales will peak next year with what we believe will be the iPhone 8, with Apple predicted to sell 245 million units during fiscal 2018. That’s a rise of 9 percent over estimates for fiscal 2017.
[contextly_auto_sidebar] The device could finally put a stop to falling demand for Apple’s smartphone, then — but not for long. Uerkwitz warns this will be the iPhone’s “one last growth hurrah” before consumers fall away in pursuit of cheaper smartphones.
In turn, Apple’s revenue will fall, and there’s nothing up its sleeve that will prevent it — according to Uerkwitz. “The risks to the company have never been greater,” he told MarketWatch. “We believe Apple is about to embark on a decade-long malaise.”
James Cakmak of Monness Crespi Hardt shares similar beliefs. He points to the change in consumer behavior that is already lengthening smartphone upgrade cycles, and the threat from rivals like Amazon and Google in phones, content streaming, and augmented reality.
Cakmak also believes that Apple could be shooting itself in the foot by selling refurbished iPhone units, which could cannibalize sales of new devices and further decrease the average selling price of smartphones.
“Apple won’t have it easy again for a while, if ever,” Cakmak said.
There are also concerns about how Apple will fare under President-elect Donald Trump, who seems determined to force Apple into manufacturing iPhones and other products in the U.S., where increased labor costs would almost certainly lead to more expensive devices.
Not all analysts are worried, though. Many others, like Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity, believe Apple has what it takes to weather-the-storm. In fact, Walkley believes Apple can increase its share of the smartphone market despite the increased competition.
Others have faith in Apple’s efforts to carve out a place for its self in the smart car and augmented reality markets. Tim Cook has already promised that Apple is working on AR behind the scenes, but we’re yet to find out what that will bring.
Killian Bell is a freelance writer based in the U.K. He has an interest in all things tech and also covers Android over at CultofAndroid.com. You can follow him on Twitter via @killianbell.
13 responses to “Worried analysts predict decade of doom for Apple”
Things like this make me laugh. No-one can predict what can happen tomorrow, let alone in 10 years time. Apple have over $250 billion, they aren’t going anywhere for a long time.
Hang on, if I predict something like this, do I get money? Seems like a piss easy job.
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There is only one true constant in the universe: Analysts will ALWAYS predict that Apple is DOOOOOOMED. When Apple first came on the scene, the analysts just knew it would fail. When Microsoft copied the graphic user interface to build Windows, doom and a quick slide to obscurity was all the analysts could predict. When Steve Jobs came back to the company, the analysts predicted it was too late to save the struggling company. Apple was doomed. When the iPod came out, analysts predicted no one would buy such a thing. When the iPhone came out, analysts predicted no one would buy it because it was too expensive. As each new iPhone rolls out each year, analysts predict that sales have peaked and Apple would be in real trouble shortly. When the iPad was released… you get the picture. Even millions of sales of the Apple Watch is considered a failure, despite outselling all other smartwatches by millions of units sold.
With Apple’s runaway success and its wealth surpassing that of several smaller countries, the analysts ALWAYS predict Apple failing. If they do it often enough, one day it may finally become true, and after waiting for over 20 to 30 years they can finally crow “See, we were right!” Apple has proven so many times that they can beat the odds and continue to create products a significant portion of the public loves.
We heard the same story a year ago, two years ago and three years ago…
Also how can iPhone sales peak in 2017 or 2018 ? They already announced the ‘peak’ last time, and the time before that…
Dooooooomed, I tell you!
I’m not sure what crack your on but good for you. I don’t mean any disrespect but your an idiot.
You’re (You are, not “your” – possessive) not in a position to call anyone an idiot.
Forecasts of doom and Apple are always to be taken with a grain of salt. But there are some worrying signs that all is not well inside Apple, and that is something even Apple evangelists are arguing. Desktop and laptop innovation seems to be at a standstill (even the new MacBook Pros, although they are lovely machines, are more transitional devices like the initial G4 tower was and not true steps forward). Apple has exited the Wi-Fi router and stand-alone monitor businesses. We have the disbandment of the desktop automation group. And after years and dollars invested in the mysterious Apple car project, that seems also to have been back-burnered. Very few cars currently support Apple’s automotive software integrations, either, and HomeKit development is at a crawl. iOS offers a superior user experience, but the gap is narrowing such that Android and even Windows are plausible, and often cheaper, alternatives nowadays; the exploding batteries was a gift to Apple, one that it surely needed. There are also some weird PR steps, like the $300 photobooks of Apple devices. Apple offers Apple Music at a higher price point than entirely equivalent services on other platforms; Apple is not interested in developing its own movie, TV, and book content or subscriptions; it has never found a way to develop a robust cloud platform. So what Apple does is focus on consumer software and hardware, things it has always done well, but there is minimal new hardware coming out as the company exits the aforesaid hardware lines, and even Apple’s software decisions have been perplexing (eg, demise of Aperture, failure to support legacy Pages document formats at launch of the new version of iWork, etc). So the long-term concern is legitimate, even as someone might continue to absolutely love Apple’s products.
Getting out of the display business was smart and a long time coming. There are cheaper and better high resolution displays and there’s nothing for Apple to distinguish themselves there.
Getting out of the router business is strange. There are other routers out there, even better routers, but the simple setup was a distinguishing factor.
There have always been “worrying signs” inside Apple – the only difference now is that the competition has never been so interesting!
Again? Every year I read the same thing, I predict the analyst will doom due to lack of innovation in predicting Apple’s doomness.
Hold the phone, Apple sells energy back to the gov because it produces too much…which i’m guessing means they’ll always have an income! That plus anything they sell. Plus everything the company is worth and the shares…yea Apple should be fine for a long time!!
this time around apple will collapse because they are removing stuff out of their products and giving less for more money
You’re assuming they don’t add any new products to their catalog.
Well someone did install DOOM on the touch bar of the new macbook pro. So I guess Apple is indeed DOOMed.