It’s no secret that iPad sales are stalling. After an incredible start, iPad sales have continued to decline, year over year. Tim Cook has characterized it as just a speed bump, a statistical aberration more to do with how fast the iPad grew than customers losing interest in the line, even as Cupertino otherwise readies a stylus-boasting 12.9-inch iPad Pro to help boost sales.
But will the iPad Pro be enough? Not according to reputable KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who says we can expect iPad sales to decline by as much as 30% in 2015.
In a note to clients issued on Friday, Kuo said that he believed that iPad shipments will “struggle to top” 45 million units this year, which would result in a 30 percent year-over-year decline since 2014.
But could the iPad Pro save things? Don’t hold your breath. Kyo believes that the 12.9-inch iPad, while on schedule for launch later this year, will not “contribute meaningfully to shipments momentum.”
In fact, it looks like it’s about to get gruesome for the iPad. Kuo believes iPad shipments will decline 52.7 percent in Apple’s Q2, falling to just 10.1 million units. He expects another drop in sales in Q3, falling to between 7 million and 8 million units.
Woof. Those numbers are bad. And it’s not like Kuo is terrible at predicting Apple’s success: in the last quarter, he was closer than almost any other analyst in predicting how many iPhones Apple had sold. His prediction was 73 million; Apple actually sold 74.5 million. Chances are, he’s right.
John Brownlee is a writer for Fast Company, and a contributing writer here at CoM. He has also written for Wired, Playboy, Boing Boing, Popular Mechanics, VentureBeat, and Gizmodo. He lives in Boston with his wife and two parakeets. You can follow him here on Twitter.
43 responses to “The iPad Pro might not be the answer to Apple’s prayers after all”
There is no real reason to upgrade from the iPad 3/4 to any new full size ipad. There are no apps that require the extra processing power. The new mini was a joke too… Until they add must have features, or developers release must-have software that requires the newer hardware, don’t expect people to upgrade. My iPad 3, iPad 4, ipad Air and mini are all pretty much the same… I used to buy a new iPad every year. Now I probably won’t buy an other for a a few years…
Yes and no. I don’t see the general population needing one, but for artists, and boardrooms presentations, kiosks, etc, I could see it being huge. Not like, sell a few hundred million huge, but huge.
The Mini is still my favourite iPad.
Tim Cook never claimed the iPad Pro would turn around decreasing iPad sales. He only said it would likely help sales. I’m sure he realizes that consumers are not suddenly going to start upgrading from their earlier model iPads unless there is a need to and that will only be likely when older iPads are no longer useful. I personally don’t think iPad sales will ever return to their initial high sales unless Apple can get corporations, hospitals and schools to start using them in high numbers and I don’t foresee that happening any time soon.
I don’t understand why everyone is so obsessed with iPad sales when iPhone sales are off the chart. Profit margins are much higher for the iPhone than the iPad. Consumers aren’t made of money to just keep buying every product Apple makes. Apple is still selling plenty of desktops and notebooks so I really don’t see why the great concern. If I had to make a choice between an iPad Pro and a MacBook Pro, I’d go with the more expensive MacBook Pro and I’m sure Apple would prefer that. So, no. The iPad Pro will not turn iPad sales around to former levels.
“I don’t understand why everyone is so obsessed with iPad sales…”
Because when the iPad was first introduced, everyone made it out to be the Jesus tablet. Now with four or five consecutive quarters of YoY declines, it might end up looking like a false prophet.
Please, people were saying it was the stupidest thing ever.
Wasn’t just people. Pretty much every Apple tech blog, including this one.
21 Million iPads sold last quarter is more than than PCs by Dell or HP-right?
I think the real issue is, once you have an iPad you probably don’t need another one.
Perhaps if some great new feature is in a new one an upgrade might be in order.
But for apparently most people, the first one is ‘good enough’.
Gosh, only sell 45 million iPads! I love how Apple is so big that only selling 45 million units is perceived as doing badly. I’ve resisted buying an iPad so far, because my Mac Pro, iMac, MacBook Pro and iPhone fill my needs for everything right now. I may make the leap into the iPad arena this year, just to see what it’s all about. Now if they brought out a tablet that had a full version of OS X, but with touch controls, I’d probably buy it. Small, light and with a bluetooth connection to a wireless keyboard — it might be an effective laptop replacement, as long as the battery life and processing power were sufficient. Make mine 17″ and I’ll pick one up in a hot second.
Knowing Apple it will be too expensive for consumers.
What consumers are you referring to? Presumably not the tens of millions that buy Apple products every quarter.
Don’t have a cow man
I was merely asking a question of a fairly uninformed yet opinionated commenter.
And after the most profitable quarter for a corporation in the world ever you presume to know what Apple’s prayers are for a fictional product?
iPads are not bad, but a $220 Nexus 7 is a much better deal. Spending big time on phones is fairly easy to rationalize (even though it is irrational), but for tablets the price point matters. Google is seriously going wrong with the Nexus 9, which is way overpriced, just like Apple’s tablets.
The iPad Pro isn’t going to happen. THAT is why it won’t help iPad sales. Can’t sell something that is never released.
While I personally hate the smaller form factor of the mini, that size has been a proven winner across brands with consumers. Not a fan, but definitely not the “stupidest tablet ever envisioned”
You can’t assign intelligence to an inanimate object like the iPad so you’re argument is stupid in the first place.
“stupidest tablet ever envisioned”
Seems you’re the one who needs to learn how to read his own comments. If you don’t like nonsense then you should stop spouting it.
Only one making up straw men is you. Learn how to argue without making up senseless crap.
Nope. No facts in any of your comments. Only unfounded opinions. The only fact here is that you’re making yourself look like a massive douche. Try again, dum dum.
Nope. The iPad Mini is a winner. I upgraded to it from a 3rd gen iPad and don’t regret it one bit. It’s more powerful and much easier to carry around, especially with the Smart Case. Consumers have proven you very wrong.
Well that comment was useless. Try actually making sense if you’re going to reply.
I can read just fine. Can’t say the same for you.
I an an artis of sorts, and me and my kin have been waiting for a big pad for some time. Since pre-iPad tbh. I’ve anted one since the 90s.
There are plenty of apps that could utilize the power, and in addition to that, split screen is a possibility, letting me have both my recording software (cubasis or beatmaker for example) on the left side of the sceeen and some effects or a synth on the other side. This would boost workflow in a way that makes my whole tummy region tingle.
Or how about just drag-dropping samples/images or whatever from the browser and into your apps instead of flipping between, copying, pasting, blabla.
Mostly for creative people, much like ALL their gear with a Pro on the end.
That iPad Pro needs to run the full version of OS X Yosemite. Must of my Creative, Editor counterparts are using the Surface Pro to run Adobe Premiere Pro, Illustrator, Photoshop i.e. Creative Cloud. That’s the direction the need to focus on bring FCPX and other major apps to a tablet.
I disagree. Why would you want OS X on an iPad which is a touch device (OS X is not a touch-oriented OS)?
The iPad Air really helped kill the Mini, the 6+ further hurt the mini- this should be no surprise, the real question is what are combined iPhone 6+ and iPad sales- guessing they are stable. And the real bottom line is the bottom line, and even with this decline, didn’t Apple have a record quarter for all corporations, ever? So why is this a concern? Guessing they are not losing sleep in Cupertino, and am guessing the 12″ Macbook and large iPad will move partially into Air sales as well. Again, bottom line is the bottom line.
Finally, every iPad, phone and Macbook is profitable alone, doubt many other companies can say that. If they are, why is Samsung doing so poorly in Android profits? They have no R&D costs outside of legal fees.
To boost ipad sales, just add sd card slot and allow people to plug a freaking usb pen to use it as memory. Also lower the price tag to at least the same as competition.
If they do this, they will sell more and get back the consumers that went for android tablets.
Don’t hold your breath.
None of those are going to happen. If you’re too cheap to pay for a quality device, Apple doesn’t want you and will gladly show you where you can buy your crappy, $60 Android tablet.
No need for an iPad pro. The iPhone 6 is already giving the competition the near death experience. And the watch comes out in 2 months, well let’s say the bells will start towing.
What if it’s meant to replace the MacBook Air and can run OSX?
That doesn’t make any sense. Apple wouldn’t make a device with a mobile OS to replace a full-fledged computer OS. If this thing does ever come out, it’ll be Apple’s answer to the Surface Pro and run full OS X. That won’t happen until OS X gets a touch-optimized interface, which isn’t going to happen this year. They just did a design overhaul with Yosemite. This next version will be all about under-the-hood enhancements (a la Snow Leopard).
What’s the point? That Apple knows what its customers actually want in a computer? Or that you can’t seem to make any coherent points?
“If it was meant to replace the MacBook Air, it by definition wouldn’t run OS X.”
You should read your own moronic comments before posting them if you don’t want to get called out for being stupid. Move along, dum dum.
Still talking about yourself? Just continuing to prove how much of an asshole you are. I’ve made plenty of arguments here. You should try addressing it instead of continuing to avoid it. Try again.
Says the guy whose trolling comments are dropping like flies!
Go learn some reading comprehension so you can actually understand what I’m saying. Bye troll!
I’m sorry, I don’t understand the logic behind that. Why wouldn’t it?
The iPad Pro isn’t real at this point so yeah it won’t fix anything.
That said, it’s Apple, folks will buy the shit out of it, even if its crap. Just like they will buy the crap out of the Apple Watch
If Apple sells iPads with a lower price and/or removable storage, I doubt they won’t have record sales for it.
The current prices for iPad, specially the ridiculous iPad Mini 3, are absurd.
What’s stalling them out is that they are no longer being innovative, they are chasing now. They don’t want to put apps and programs that will make them great again so it’s now just a one trick pony that looks nice but isn’t worth the money considering it’s competition that got off to a slow start is making the tablet replace the laptop in all manner of ways. If Apple doesn’t take their heads out of their asses they’re gonna have major problems moving a product that is “new” and obsolete at the same time. And trust me, large iPhone sales won’t be able to save sales of a device that is suppose to be the happy medium between iPhone and laptop/desktop.