You know that scene in a horror movie where everything seems to be good, but things are just a bit too quiet?
Well, according to analyst Abhey Lamba of Mizuho Securities, Apple is there right now. With the company coming off its most profitable iPhone launch ever, exciting new devices on the horizon and a stock price that recently hit an all-time high, what else is there for the self-respecting analyst to do but predict that doom is right around the corner?
What is the metaphorical monster ready to leap out of a cupboard and savage Apple to bloody death, so soon after it hits its glorious peak? Why, the Apple Watch of course.
And according to Lamba, it could cost Apple big.
In a note published Thursday, Lamba argued that AAPL shares could fall by 20 percent this year as iPhone sales slow down, and the Apple Watch isn’t enough to offset this decline.
“While F1Q15 results will likely be extremely solid and March guidance could indicate continued momentum, we believe iPhone sales will decelerate more than normal later in the year,” said the guidance note to clients. “Additionally, our checks indicate that Apple Watch sales could be disappointing and other categories are unlikely to offset the slowdown in iPhone sales creating pressure on out-year estimates.”
And why not? What says “end of days apocalypse” more than share prices which rose almost 40 percent in 2014, and two new iPhones that Apple quite literally couldn’t build fast enough to fill demand?
If you need me, I’ll be sitting in the lifeboat.
Via: CNBC
Luke Dormehl is a U.K.-based journalist and author, with a background working in documentary film for Channel 4 and the BBC. He is the author of The Apple Revolution and The Formula: How Algorithms Solve All Our Problems … and Create More, both published by Penguin/Random House. His tech writing has also appeared in Wired, Fast Company, Techmeme and other publications.
39 responses to “RIP Apple: Analyst predicts doom after Apple Watch”
The funny thing is, if (when) he’s wrong, not only will he not get the sack, he’ll probably get a bonus.
Here’s the thing that’s kind of misleading. Apple announces a new iPhone lineup every year, and they sell quite well for about 6 months and then during the slower months, iPhone sales slow down. This has been happening every year, but this analyst knows this and is using it to get attention. Will Apple’s stock go down? Well, that depends. Usually, Apple has a little cycle to it’s stock price because of the slower quarters, BUT last year Apple bought back a bunch of shares, which helped the stock price spike. I don’t know if the AppleWatch is going to sell as well as anyone predicts. I’ve heard anywhere between 8 and 40 Million units for the first year. I quite frankly have no idea, but it’s a pretty big spread. Time will tell. The one reason why it might not sell 40 million units is because there are already rumors of a AppleWatch2, for 2016 and some people will probably wait.
They are also working on new products for this year, which includes the iPhone 6/6+ replacements, but that means that the 6/6+ will come down in price at the end of the year as Apple does their typical yearly product shift.
I also read that Apple is slated to implement 2nd gen Foxconn robots to eventually increase production capacity by a factor of 3x their current levels, which would help them “POTENTIALLY” decrease their costs and we will probably see the effects of any cost reductions. I don’t think Apple is doomed like the Analyst predicts, I just think he’s a bitter Google or Microsoft user that’s trying to conjure up nonsense. Time will tell if the guy is right, but I doubt that Apple is doomed. The stock MAY go through a up/down cycle but not if Apple finishes their promise to buy back shares helping the stock increase. We’ll see if they do it at the end of the March quarter like they did last year. :-)
I’m not so sure moving to ‘robots’ (robotics?) would be detrimental to the product by way of cost cutting. They’ll be used for precision, specific tasks that take humans (3 times longer as you mention you read) more time to complete ….which leads ME to believe they’re intricate and/or ‘skilled’, maybe tedious tasks that when replaced by machinery will actually have the opposite effect. Each will be ‘perfect’ in comparison to human builds or engineering.
Sorry but we’re all human. If it’s Friday, coming up on beer thirty and you’re running behind …out of the 50-60 million rolling out over the next 90 days ….who would notice if you cut a corner or two? Broke a ribbon or let a cold solder ‘go’ to hasten your exit? Humans aren’t perfect. Nor are all machines, but they’re a HELLUVA lot better than us, especially when it comes to tedious, repetitive and precision tasks.
And not calling in sick
To the author, your line
“And why not? What says “end of days apocalypse” more than share prices which rose almost 40 percent in 2014, and two new iPhones that Apple quite literally couldn’t build fast enough to fill demand?”
It’s pitiful Bozos like these analysts make the livings they do. ALL have been wrong and EVERY single one of them ….with hindsight and the ability to rewind ‘life’, would have ALL sunk EVERY dollar they had in 99-2002. It’s amazing to me folks like this are published, much less listened to or is tutoring financial management, your future and being ready for retirement. The same can be said for another couple of incredible, one revolutionary product(s) released last fall. It took me almost eight weeks to receive my 5K iMac, and I wasn’t able to collect an iPad with 128GB for a few weeks either. We did the 6+ update as well.
Apple Watch may or may not be hit, double…triple or home run. It might be a single this year and evolve into a product too functional to dismiss. The possibilities are incredible with a wearable as inconspicuous as a watch. Google Glass or an Apple Watch with a killer sports strap or gorgeous 18K Rose gold? I’m not the least, nor have I ever been interested in Google’s Glass project. It’s ridiculous IMHO. As a 44 year old, I wear a watch and maybe it’s a generational thing but to me, it’s a lot quicker and more efficient to look at my wrist than pull out my phone. As well, medical aggregation and interaction with your doc — BP, Sugars or heart rates sleep patterns or ‘activity’ and exercise.
The ability to turn my TV on, my Apple TV on, check a text or a reminder, the time and weather or snow conditions up at the mountain, GPS and ‘apps’ aplenty in the App Store I see being phenomenal on a watch …but, I enjoy and will continue wearing watches for life. And I’ve got every gadget there is. Doesn’t matter. A watch is always on, always with you and extremely personal. So much so, they’re going to pretty extensive lengths to offer ‘one for you’. For me, working out, coaching the kids, keeping track of the business, staying ‘in touch’ with something as small as a wrist watch is easier, more convenient and less conspicuous checking than pulling your iPhone out when you’re coaching first base ;)
Then there’s Broadwell. It’s delay and the product refreshes that will stem from the roll out of the bigger and more powerful chips through the year. The MacBook Pro chips are ready now, as are the ULP 4-6 watt guys if there’s a retina MBA we’ve all heard about and Apple TV is a treat. But it can be taken further, like TiVo …actually take the place of your Comcast STB and still Be able to access your content from CCast with all the functionality of the wireless communications with your computers, phones, tabs and different users, etc. They’ll update, most likely quietly the internals of the 13/14 MacPro with new gen GPU and PCIe storage solutions, faster or newer Xeon CPUs….while finally spanning all devices by the end of fiscal ’14 with ‘retina” class HiDPI displays, including the Air and smaller iMac.
The iPad Air 2 is in an iOS class by itself. And I own the ‘4’ and original Airs as well ( we use a couple dozen in the company )… While I wouldn’t run out and buy one today if I owned an original Air, but I certainly wouldn’t go ‘use’ one either. It’s hand’s down the best, fastest, most incredible display to date on an iOS device. While I don’t really fall for the RAM thing in my iPhone (I also own a Note 4 w/3GB, a quad core clocked twice the speed — yet the iOS experience on apps with parity are always, without fail, more fluid, responsive and generally All Around Better, easier to use and. Ire efficient than my Android counterpart.)
Twice the cores and twice the speed with three times the RAM does not ‘make’ the systems Better. It’s the ability to build the software, the hardware, control production and eliminate cell companies from robbing their UI. Stock Android is very boring. I’m one of apparently few (even though they sell more than anyone else) that enjoys TouchWiz. It’s come a long way since the S2, Note 1 and days of yore. That said, it’s still creamed when it comes to the selection of both tablet and phone apps equally …the ‘experience’ is better without the thick layer of peanut butter (JavaScript) pasted to the competition and as folks become more and more reliant on phones and tablets as their primary ‘mobile’ computer, they’ll need some sort of vertical & horizontal supporting cast at home, the office or private jet
And it’s NOT going to be a Chromebook.
Analysts. Weird. Do they TRULY get paid for that gibberish? Especially after being wrong ALL the time!
Thanks for sharing. Always worth a chuckle when the sky’ stage limit with their 7-1 split. Now anyone can go buy a share. Not a partial because it’s $600;) a full share for a C note and change. Then you’re an Apple owner! The company is poised to blow all the estimates away, including their own with the iPhone 6/6+ and Air2, second gen A8 64bit processor… & anyone that has seen that presentation of the technology that went in to the SoC on the watch, its internal sensors, BT 4.1 and haptic feedback — & the crown is such a VERY cool instrument of control. Brilliant and intriguing to those of us wearing watches.
I’ll own one and like my first iPhone, iPad and Apple IIe, they’ll go into the chamber of nostalgia when the ‘real’ one drops in ’16
Well, an analyst said it. That’s it guys. Pack up and let’s go home.
Was a good run.
Perhaps an iShit would revolutionize the way we……
Yep, an analyst said it, (again); was that anal-yst? Somewhere around the house I have a page from a magazine with about 20 quotations from respected members of various industries (from years ago when Apple was floundering): “Apple is a software company. They should sell off their hardware sector.” “Apple needs to merge with a company such as AT&T.” “Apple should do this. Apple should do that. Apple should do this AND that.” Somebody is always willing and eager to mind someone else’s business, in industry, in politics, in personal relationships.
Has “analyst Abhey Lamba of Mizuho Securities” every successfully analyzed a company and accurately predicted its future? Was it a lucky guess?
We know who Macalope will skewer in his next column…
At last check Apple is expected to sell 50M Apple Watch’s. I don’t think that’s a small number. I don’t see “doom” around the corner.
Maybe, but it doesn’t matter. Apple will sell more $400+ wearables in the next 12 months than all of its competitors – combined. Anything priced under $400 is just a fancy watch.
This guy is just an analyst trying to not go with the herd. Yeah, his advice could be dead wrong and terrible. What are this guy’s credentials? Is there any reason anyone should listen to him? If it’s just a random guy,then who cares? As for the Apple Watch, we don’t really know how successful it will be, even if we think it will do very well, no one knows for sure. I think he’s totally wrong about the iphone
Not agreeing with this guy – Apple is very smart and I am sure they have other items in the pipeline – but I do think phones are becoming more of a commodity. Some cool new features but I have a 2 year old Note II as my main phone. I have not felt the need to upgrade. It does what I want, is plenty fast enough, has the big screen and a stylus which I use plus really solid battery life and support for external memory.
The iPhone 6 / 6+ did help deliver on a pent up demand – larger iPhones. Possible that Apple releases a 5s sized version with the new internals because many like that form factor. They do multiple sizes of Macs so why not of phones?
As for the Apple Watch, I don’t think it will be a huge hit. It will sell decently and make Apple money but so many people have moved away from watches in general. Second issue is many iPhone purchases are subsidized in the US. Your payment is spread over generally 2 years. I can’t see this happening with the Apple Watch, an accessory to your iPhone and not the thing that will make carriers money. That is a large upfront payment especially for the target audience which I feel is the younger crowd who is more tech savvy.
Will the Apple Watch be better than the current crop of watches on the market? Probably, Apple is darn good and figuring out usability. Will that be enough? With the up front cost and the need to charge daily I am seeing an uphill battle no matter who makes the watch.
It’s not about the phones becoming commodities. It’s about the integration of multiple platforms across fitness, the home, mobile payments, and more. Apple is so far ahead in this way that they’re moving towards making an iPhone not a commodity, but something people feel they have to own in order to participate in the 21st century in a seamless way. Android’s fragmentation will become its Achilles heel more and more. Apple is solving the problem of commoditization with every move that they make and they’re the only ones in a position to do it. Apple Pay and use cases nobody thought of will massively drive Watch sales. ios integrated homes and appliances and cars will become a major selling point. YOU CANNOT COMMODITIZE ECOSYSTEM and that’s what the naysayers and the companies churning out cheap plastic phones and trying to flood the market on razor thin margins don’t understand.
“RIP Apple: Analyst predicts doom after Apple Watch”
Another slow day for the ANALysts. This guy is popping of large (and stupid), simply because there is no better way to generate clicks and taps than with “news” about possible Apple failures, however unlikely.
The bit about Apple shares dropping “as the iPhone sales slows (sic) down” is the most ludicrous part. Few companies, perhaps none, get so hammered by ANALysts because they make such a successful, popular product. Even when Microsoft made the Google Glass thingie—which was clearly doomed from the get-go—ANALyst were reluctant to predict its demise or harm to the Google brand. And look how that turned out. The only reason iPhone sales have ever slowed is because they’re already in the hands of so many people, people who love them and buy them with every iteration.
It’s just too bad that during these slow news cycles, Cult of Mac feels it necessary to join the race to print such ridiculous drivel.
An attempt at market manipulation by another unimaginative analyst.
No kidding. I think he’s a bitter Android/Windows user that just doesn’t get Apple.
That’s what every Apple fanboy thinks but the facts aren’t nearly as self serving as you think.
In short, analysts have too much of a rep to worry about to truly base their research on personal brand loyalty.
You’d think by now these asshats would have learned to STFU. Not only has AAPL proved them wrong every single time over the last 15 years they still remain manically focused on iPhone while Cupertino is diversifying it’s sources of revenue. Apple Pay is in its infancy but that alone could be a massive contributor to Apple’s bottom line and will not be subject to the seasonal buying cycles of Apple’s other products. They haven’t even tipped their hand about what’s happening in the TV space then there’s the enterprise push with IBM.
I’d love a job as an analyst. They get paid huge salaries for adding no value what-so-ever and only have to make the odd dumbass prediction every now and then. Gravy train or what?
They’ll learn to STFU if they are proven wrong enough times. There were a few analysts that did predict that Apple was going to go down from $700+ to $400 a number of years ago, but I don’t think that is going to happen again unless there are some significant issues beyond Apple’s control, which are doubtful.
As far as AppleWatch sales. I just don’t know and I’m not going to predict anything. I think 8 to 15 million units sold is pretty easy for them to do. When they start talking about 40 million or so units sold, I get a little nervous. I only hope Apple doesn’t overbuild them at first. I hope that they are a little more conservative on production for these things. It would be better for them to ramp up than to scale back.
Agreed on all counts. I’m on the fence about the watch. I need to see a good use case and sending doodles or my heartbeat don’t cut it.
I think we’ll see good use cases nobody thought of. I crapped all over the Watch cause I was (and still am) upset that they didn’t fit it with stand-alone gps. As a runner, I wanted to ditch the Fitbit Flex, my Garmin 210 with stand alone gps, and my heart rate monitor chest strap and have it all in one device. I don’t take my phone on runs cause of having the Garmin.
Anyway, I bought the Microsoft Band and it’s pretty awesome. Does everything I wanted plus the bonus of notifications and the gps locks on way faster than my garmin. Come back, sync with iPhone 6 and have a map of my run with relative speed throughout, heart rate graph, etc., it’s amazing.
So I thought there is no way in hell that I’d get the Watch cause what I’ve seen of Android apps hasn’t impressed and I have everything I wanted for fitness in the Band.
However, I haven’t tried Apple Pay on my 6 yet. And I HAVE been to Disney World and enjoyed using Magic Bands to pay for everything as well as not needing to bring my wallet everywhere. That alone is making me think I might enjoy using the Watch if it’s a pretty seamless experience. Also, I’m starting to see use cases pop up in videos about the Watch where I’m like, “Hmmm…” One was contextual maps in a grocery store that would tell you where to go to find an item on the Watch. I probably wouldn’t use that, but I was impressed that I had never thought of something like that and I could see how it could be useful.
I think between Apple Pay and whatever other ‘cards’ they’ll start allowing you to link to the Watch, perhaps using the Watch heavily with Homekit and Healthkit, and then the ARMY of developers salivating at the thought of coming up with that first killer app for a wearable, something nobody had envisioned at the start, the Watch is going to do just fine. In fact, I’d say it’s going to become an almost indispensable accessory to the iPhone.
The other thing is, when I got the Band, I didn’t even know it could do notifications with the iPhone. I figured I’d not really want to use that feature, but it has become possibly my favorite thing about the Watch. When I’m at work in another room away from my phone or when I’m driving or trying to put my kid to bed, I can just glance at my wrist and see what’s going on. I can keep my phone on silent yet still know if I’m getting an important phone call but I’m in another room, People are SEVERELY underestimating how much seeing other people doing this will influence more buyers.
On top of that, I think people, like they do every year, are sitting on a mountain of gift cards purchased over xmas that they could be saving for the Watch. I have two that I think I’ll use for just that purpose.
They never will, because nobody ever publishes their track record to embarrass them or bring up the news a year later when they’ve been proven horribly wrong. Only sites like Apple Death Watch keep track. They should be hiding in caves for being such massive failures, but instead they republish the same drivel every quarter. Shameful.
Yep. They love that word ‘commoditization’, when Apple has already moved beyond that. They’re into making the ecosystem not only stickier, but irresistible to users of other platforms which will cause more conversion. And they have PLENTY of room for sales growth because of this. That and emerging markets. You cannot commoditize ecosystem… not sure when these idiot pundits will ever learn that. I guess when ios becomes a standard like bluetooth is a standard.
Yeah right. What Lambda ignores is that the success of iPhone 6 was not exclusively caused by current iPhone users upgrading. The success of the iPhone was caused in large part by those new to the platform. I think they call that ‘installed base’.
But you can’t think exclusively in terms of iPhone installed base. You also have to think in terms of Mac installed base (growing for the past 10+ years, the iPad installed base, the iTunes installed base, and the installed bases that Apple Watch and HealthKit will generate.
Then you have to consider the halo effect that occurs when consumers buy their first Apple product. The likelihood that they will buy another Apple product is quite high.
Further, I don’t think enough respect is being given to the ability of Apple Pay to drive sales of future iPhones. Not even on the market 4 months, in a category that is multi-years old, and Apple Pay is the standard by which all other mobile pay platforms are being judged. This is being exhibited very well in Apple Pay’s adoption rate (more users that all competing platforms in the US – combined).
That BoA number is wrong. There are barely that many iTunes accounts and most of them don’t have an iPhone 6 or 6+.
No they aren’t. I am. The number attributed to BofA should have been 800 thousand. Thank you for bringing the error to my attention.
The fact remains that Apple Pay signups at BofA are greater than the total of mobile pay users of all competing platforms – combined (in the US).
Same diff. It’s actually about 1.1 million as of the most recent numbers.
1.1 Million is the number of BofA cards registered with Apple Pay. 800 Thousand is the number of BofA CARDHOLDERS that have registered with Apple Pay.
I’m not sure of the point you are trying to make. I made a factual error, thanked you for bringing to my attention, now it appears you are trying to pick a fight. Nice try but I don’t debate split hairs with anonymous screen names that seem to have an agenda unrelated to the subject.
Ahh, correct. My tiredness made me a little dyslexic.
Not sure which of my two sentences was picking a fight. You seem to be more interested in doing that.
Seriously, where the hell does the author get his headlines from, his ass or someone else’s?
Is it Apple Doomsday again already? LOL You’re absolutely right. Even if the Apple Watch fails, they could never bounce back with their hundreds of billions of dollars! Bahahahahaha
Another one of those click-bait ‘forecasts’ from someone we never heard of before, who we’re unlikely to hear from again, from a ‘firm’ also previously unknown, but obviously desperate for some publicity. I’ve got an excellent sea view property in Arizona for sale, if they are interested.
This analyst is a genius with an almost perfect track record. Apple will not be up before earnings and maybe 1 or 2 days up the rest of January. THe watch will be apples biggest failure and iphone sales will be scant due to xiaomi and samsung.
The stock should end the year in the low to mid 60s
Back under your bridge, Mr Troll.
Apple are flying at the minute and people are waiting for the downturn
Who is this analyst? And how many times did his Windows machine crash while he wrote his prediction?
Wonder how many times his Windows machine crashed while he wrote his big analysis?
Abhey Lamba – a nobody to whom you have just given some more free publicity.
This scenario could probably fit any company on the planet. No company sells huge amounts of products equally every quarter of the year. All companies have slow quarters, so why should Apple be an exception. Why should Apple be the only company that is doomed for being like any other company? However, Apple’s future is not set in stone, so simply saying sales will plummet could easily be wrong. This analyst’s predictions can easily be wrong. He won’t even be obliged to apologize for misleading investors if he’s wrong about his predictions.
Why is Microsoft being given a premium and positive outlook for Windows 10 sales when sales could also not live up to expectations. Microsoft’s future is looked upon with optimism while Apple’s future is always looked upon with a pessimistic attitude. Why that is, I’ll never understand. No one should be able to read the future with high accuracy. Why is it that Wall Street ignores things like the Butterfly Effect? Any company’s future outcome can certainly be affected by that. Apple is no more or less affected by that than any other company.
Here’s my prediction:
Apple stock will fluctuate during the year until the Holiday Buying Season. Then it will rise 10-15% with the sales of the iPhone 6S/6SPlus, increased sales of the Watch, which started off hot in March for early adopters, but then tapered down to a slow simmer through the summer. Also a new iPad Pro which will sell modestly but still bump the stock a little bit showing Apple is willing to fight for market share in most categories and continue to create “new” products.
Now give me an analyst job and pay me big bucks.