It seems like every year it takes longer and longer to jailbreak the latest iPhone… which is because, ever since the release of the iPhone 3G, it has been true. To date, the number of days it takes for jailbreakers to release a public jailbreak for the latest iPhone has increased by an average of 67.58% every year… and the recent evasi0n jailbreak for all iOS 6.1 devices landed a record 136 days after the iPhone 5 went on sale.
Looking forward, we were curious what that meant for the iPhone 5S. Given historic trends, how long will it take jailbreakers to release a public jailbreak for Apple’s next phone? Here’s what we found.
According to our number crunching, if the amount of time it takes to release a public jailbreak of the latest iPhone increases at the historic average, it will take over six months to get a jailbreak for the iPhone 5S. Considering that the iPhone 5 took only around four months, you’d better get used to waiting.
It could take jailbreakers a whole year to jailbreak the latest iPhone by 2015.
Even worse? If that trend continues, by the time the iPhone 6S comes out in 2015, it could take jailbreakers a whole year to jailbreak.
We’ll be the first to admit that this is little more than number guessery, backed up by some historic data and some simple future predictions. On one hand, it’s possible that Charlie Miller on Twitter is right, and that evasi0n represents the last public jailbreak, total. On the other? The iPhone 5S might come out and a vulnerability might be immediately spotted, or a new jailbreak superstar a la Geohot might show up to save us all.
It could go either way. Still, if you were going to make a bet on when the next iPhone would get jailbroken, you should probably go long. The odds will be in your favor.