How Many Days Will It Take To Jailbreak The iPhone 5S? [Chart]

Six months to jailbreak the iPhone 5S? If history is anything to go by, yep.

Six months to jailbreak the iPhone 5S? If history is anything to go by, yep.

It seems like every year it takes longer and longer to jailbreak the latest iPhone… which is because, ever since the release of the iPhone 3G, it has been true. To date, the number of days it takes for jailbreakers to release a public jailbreak for the latest iPhone has increased by an average of 67.58% every year… and the recent evasi0n jailbreak for all iOS 6.1 devices landed a record 136 days after the iPhone 5 went on sale.

Looking forward, we were curious what that meant for the iPhone 5S. Given historic trends, how long will it take jailbreakers to release a public jailbreak for Apple’s next phone? Here’s what we found.

According to our number crunching, if the amount of time it takes to release a public jailbreak of the latest iPhone increases at the historic average, it will take over six months to get a jailbreak for the iPhone 5S. Considering that the iPhone 5 took only around four months, you’d better get used to waiting.

It could take jailbreakers a whole year to jailbreak the latest iPhone by 2015.

Even worse? If that trend continues, by the time the iPhone 6S comes out in 2015, it could take jailbreakers a whole year to jailbreak.

We’ll be the first to admit that this is little more than number guessery, backed up by some historic data and some simple future predictions. On one hand, it’s possible that Charlie Miller on Twitter is right, and that evasi0n represents the last public jailbreak, total. On the other? The iPhone 5S might come out and a vulnerability might be immediately spotted, or a new jailbreak superstar a la Geohot might show up to save us all.

It could go either way. Still, if you were going to make a bet on when the next iPhone would get jailbroken, you should probably go long. The odds will be in your favor.

  • ktaifan

    Hopefully iOS will be different enough by that time not to want a jailbreak.

  • markbyrn

    Somebody asked Charlie Miller if he wasn’t the same person who said there wouldn’t be a jailbreak in 2013. Given new hardware and software changes, the chances of Apple making their devices exploit proof is as likely as making a desktop OS virus proof. As ktaifan noted, perhaps Apple will make dramatic improves to their stale OS and make jailbreaking less desirable. Even so, there’s always going to be the challenge.

  • Andrew Newsome

    Do you reckon it’s because it actually takes longer or it’s because there is less and less demand?

  • Koban4max

    Now that planetbeing revealed his exploit to public…apple will permenantly seal off the exploit for good.

  • HarryWessling

    Enterprise and Business Admins don’t like the Jailbreak because it’s many risks. Less user are interested because the risks and the time to wait is a reason to deny a jailbreak.

  • dieselmaniac

    If Apple allowed people to customize their phones a tad more it might give people less of an incentive to jailbreak their phones. Their’s got to be a way of allowing us to change some things without compromising security.

  • Christopher Columbus

    I’m going to blow your mind….. Ready? How about if Apple allowed you to do whatever the f*ck you want with a device you PAID FOR AND OWN?!? Oh My Godddd! Amazing!

    Nobody would ever let you do that right? Oh wait… Android has a “Install Unauthorized Apps” checkoff right in their own options! Unbelievable!

    We understand that jailbreak compromises security. But if people WANT to make that sacrifice in order to enable more customization of THEIR device, why does Apple have the right to block that? This is not their device… it’s our device that we purchased from them.

    It’s not like jailbreaking allows you to personally effect other people. It’s simply a tool that opens up an app store with third party apps. Apps that Google allows in their own store on a DAILY BASIS!

About the author

John BrownleeJohn Brownlee is a Contributing Editor. He has also written for Wired, Playboy, Boing Boing, Popular Mechanics, VentureBeat, and Gizmodo. He lives in Boston with his wife and two parakeets. You can follow him here on Twitter.

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