What if Apple launches the iPad 3 tomorrow and it doesn’t ship for another week and a half? The company could lose almost $1bn in sales. Here’s how:
Apple sold 15.43 million iPads in the first quarter of this year. Divide that by 14 weeks (98 days) and you get 157,450 per day. We’ll take the price of an iPad as being halfway between the $499 model and the most expensive $829 model. That gives us a figure of $664.
So, crunching the numbers Apple is making around $104,546,122 per day. That’s $100m per day Apple stands to lose if people stop buying the iPad 2 to wait for the iPad 3.
That’s a lot of money, and explains why Apple is willing to invest so much in both keeping the iPad 3 a secret, and in getting the things into stores as soon as possible after the announcement on Wednesday. As Alex reported yesterday, “Apple has singlehandedly bought the majority of air cargo space coming out of China at premium rates.” That may sound lavish, but it’s probably cheap compared to the potential loss of sales.
And that secrecy can’t come cheap, either. How in hell do you manage to ship millions and millions of units of possibly the hottest consumer electronics item today, without a single leak? Because you can be sure that, even if the iPad 3 doesn’t go on sale on Wednesday afternoon, there are still millions of the things in the airplanes above your head right now.
Of course, my numbers are not entirely accurate. They take in the holiday quarter, and they also assume that everyone will just stop buying iPads until the new model is available. They were also produced by me, and my math is terrible. But they do give an idea as to why Apple has its supply line so incredibly locked down: because its cheaper than the alternatives.
Charlie Sorrel writes reviews and how-tos. Follow Charlie on Twitter at @mistercharlie, and at micro.blog on @mistercharlie
22 responses to “Apple Could Lose $100 Million Per Day If The iPad 3 Doesn’t Ship Tomorrow”
Retracted Statement.
Lack of sleep + speed reading = bad critique
Point taken, although it would have to be said that all those iPads will sell when they find their way into the shops, so although revenue might be delayed, it probably won’t be lost.
even if they wait till a month, no doubt they will still be selling millions.
Cheap filler. Gotta write something, huh, in this vacuum of real news period.
Kinda like how a big ocean wave sucks all the water off the beach as it rears up and gets ready to crash down.
They aren’t losing anything. Apple would actually lose $100M/day if people switched to another company’s product if Apple’s new iPad doesn’t ship right away. Instead, people will wait to buy a new Apple product instead of an older one. Apple will still get the money in the end, they will just have to wait a few days (like the rest of us).
Delayed, not lost.
Graphs without labeled axes. Brrr.
LOL. Who really thinks like that??? Stupid
are you a retard?
Ya, they COULD lose that money, but they won’t. Interesting article, and I liked the graph and the sales stats, but the point is somewhat moot…
Um…. Do mean lost revenue or DELAYED revenue. As I’m sure most of those sales just get put off until the release of the new,
This also assumes that Apple does’t discount the iPad2. People will absolutely jump on a $300 iPad 2!
No, no, he’s right. Because its obvious that if Apple can’t get me an iPad 3 by thursday, I am going to go and buy a Playbook instead.
Let’s be reasonable here. With every major launch there are always new articles on how the employees are being prepped for the sale, how to use the new equipment, and stores closing for prepping. Now those articles usually are posted several days before the release. When Apple announces the iPad and AppleTV3 tomorrow I really don’t see two and a half days being enough time to prep the stores and the staff. Especially for the NYC stores where it entails thunderous applause and shuffling hundreds of people in and out as soon as possible.
Bloggers are always writing about how Apple is going to LOSE money if a product is delayed or doesn’t live up to tech critic expectations. Consumers are definitely willing to wait for the latest Apple product and don’t give a damn about tech critic’s disappointments and that has already been proven. Consumers have been selling off their old iPads knowing that the latest iPad is on its way and they’re not going to be buying some crappy Android tablet in its place even if the new iPad comes two weeks later than expected. Lines for the iPad-buying consumers will be as long as ever.
iPad frenzy is reaching a fever pitch for SMB owners. Schools and government agencies are going to start grabbing up as many iPads as Apple can make. Don’t pay any attention to iHaters because they don’t know jack about the power of Apple’s marketing skills. Apple is one of the few companies that has grown revenue over the past few years of a weakened economy. The past two days have seen a sell-off in share price due to profit-taking, but the stock will spring back well within a month.
What a stupid, stupid article.
If I can’t buy an iPad 3 tomorrow, so what? I’ll wait. These are not lost sales, they’re delayed sales. Many people have held off purchasing new iPads for a while now because we know a brand new iPad is forthcoming. In no way whatsoever are those lost sales.
What is this guy smoking?
Charlie, I’m surprised at your leap of illogic here. It’s worthy of a Windows or Android user desperately scraping for “facts” on why “Apple will ultimately die, soon!” Your use of “lose” is extremely loose. As many have pointed out already, even if the iPad 3 doesn’t ship for a month or more, there is so much pent up demand that the sales will only be delayed for a short time. Apple is not discontinuing the iPad 2 and will still have it for sale in the meantime. Like they’ve done with the iPhone, earlier models are still on sale at reduced prices, and are a great bargain for people for whom price definitely is an object.
The write is a noob.
the writer is a noob.
Pro tip: The more Apple delays its product, the more these zombies become hungrier & multiply in droves..
Delays don’t affect Apple products broham.
If Apple were to LOSE 100 million a day, they’d be out of business by the end of the month. They’re not LOSING anything. Whether it goes on sale today, tomorrow, next week or next month doesn’t matter – Apple isn’t LOSING anything in the meantime.
It isn’t a new product. And they can have a team do the prep overnight to launch in the morning
A short turn around is only really a problem for the scalpers as it gives them less time to get things in order, but Apple isn’t concerned with that