Readers deserve to feel a bit like a ping pong ball as analysts swing back and forth on the question of whether or when Verizon Wireless will get the iPhone. What was once thought to be a moot issue gained new life earlier this week after a report suggested Apple would award the iPhone to Verizon in January 2011. Now comes an analyst who spoke with AT&T and says Verizon Wireless customers will have to wait until the second half of next year.
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan made the statement to investors Thursday after what he terms an “upbeat” talk with AT&T chief financial officer Rick Lindner. “The company gave some solid reasons as to why the iPhone will not affect its financial results all that much, but also why Verizon is unlikely to get [the handset] until the second half of 2011 or later,” he wrote.
Now how much of that was whistling past the graveyard or blowing smoke isn’t known. However, among the several reasons Lindner offered as to why AT&T isn’t concerned about a Verzion iPhone, were moves another analyst Wednesday termed as a “last-ditch effort” to lock subscribers into contracts before the Verizon tsunami hits.
Along with claims of improving service and customer care, Lindner also pointed to most customers being locked-into two year plans, the increased penalties for terminating those contracts early and the image of Verizon customers would be stuck with some fat and ugly handset jammed full of CDMA and other network compatibility. Noting Apple cares “about the iPhone quality and form factor,” the AT&T executive suggested Verizon customers won’t receive the thin iPhone 4. Having to fit LTE/EVDO/CDMA technologies will require a larger battery, he said, warning “which will not make Apple happy.”
To his credit, Horan points out AT&T’s decision to shorten the time period required for current iPhone subscribers to upgrade to the iPhone 4 is a “major signal” Verizon will carry the iPhone in 2011. He also predicted Apple could sell 10 million iPhones to Verizon customers in a 12-18 months, a figure that matches other analysts’ sales projections.
The analyst also warns Apple may not be able to repeat its massive first day sales for the June quarter, noting iPhone 4 sales have “largely been an upgrade event” with around 85 percent of handsets sold purchased by iPhone owners.
[via Barron’s]
