Although we won’t know exactly how many iPhone 4s were sold on the first day they hit shelves until Apple releases the official figures, one analyst pegged first-day demand at 1.5 million handsets. That is 1.5 times as many handsets the Cupertino, Calif. firm sold during the first three days in 2008 and 2009.
Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner understands these first-day prognostications are somewhat futile. Such announcements have “become something of a national sport, a bit like guessing whether Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow,” he admitted to investors Friday. Still, that doesn’t keep analysts — or the press – from playing along.
Here is how Reiner arrived at his estimate:
After surveying 714 buyers Thursday, the analyst also came to other conclusions about just who was purchasing the new iPhone. The chief item: 76 percent of people buying an iPhone 4 already owned an Apple handset. Also, the purchases were due to want, rather than need. Just 26 percent of those in line said they were buying the iPhone 4 to replace a phone that wasn’t working. The rest “were inspired by desire rather than need,” he noted. Of those iPhone owners upgrading, they were doing so only after 14.7 months.
“Apple continues to capture the attention and catalyze the passions of the American consumers in an unprecedented way,” the analyst wrote.
The survey also helped define who Apple’s real competitor is. Despite Research in Motion being the No. 2 smartphone company, most iPhone buyers said the up-and-coming Android-based handsets from Google were the real competition.
The iPad is now a more popular Apple-related purchase than Mac computers, the survey also found. Some 14 percent of iPhone 4 buyers said they planned to also buy an iPad in the next 90 days – twice the number which plan to purchase a Mac. Nearly a quarter of those planning to buy an iPad said they would opt for the tablet over a notebook.
