Apple enjoyed an incredible start to 2018 thanks to a record-breaking holiday quarter, but according to one analyst, this year’s will be even better.
Thanks to an impressive new iPhone lineup and the best Apple Watch yet, revenue could reach insane new heights as we see out 2018. iPhone sales alone are predicted to surpass a staggering 81 million units!
When Apple announced the iPhone X with its $1,000 price tag, many analysts predicted it would be a flop. A lot of Apple fans thought the same. But the device proved us all wrong, becoming Apple’s best-selling handset for much of 2018.
The iPhone X’s launch last November helped Apple rake in a record $88.3 billion in revenue for Q1 2018. But that’s nothing compared to what Asymco analyst Horace Dediu expects for Q1 2019.
Apple earnings could be sky high over the holidays
Dediu predicts Apple will sell 81.2 million iPhone units and rack up $99.56 billion in revenue over the three-month period. The iPhone’s average selling price is expected to rise to $810 — the highest it has ever been — helping increase Apple’s gross margin to 38.3 percent.
In comparison, Apple sold 77.3 million iPhone units in Q1 2018, which was impressive, but shy of Wall Street’s expectations of 80 million. Mac sales dropped, but iPad and Apple Watch sales were strong, with a 50 percent increase year-on-year for the latter.
These are staggering numbers — even for Apple, a company that continues to go from strength to strength. It’s a testament to the success of the latest iPhones, which continue to sell like hot cakes despite their hefty price tags.
But new iPhones won’t be the only Apple products that sell well over the holidays. Next week, Apple is expected to deliver a new affordable notebook that will replace the MacBook Air, a more powerful Mac mini, and, of course, a refreshed iPad Pro lineup.
All of these things — the iPad Pro, in particular — are also likely to be a hit as we approach the end of 2018.
Earnings predictions for Q4 2018
Next week, as we enter the first fiscal quarter of 2019, Apple will confirm its earnings for Q4 2018. The numbers aren’t expected to be anywhere near as impressive.
Dediu predicts Apple will report $63 billion in revenue, which is a decent increase over the $52.6 billion it turned over during Q4 2017, and a gross margin of 38 percent. But sales numbers for many key products are expected to have fallen.
!!Predictions!!
Fiscal Q4 ’18
Rev: $63.0b
EPS: $2.88
iPhone units: 46.7m
iPhone ASP: $800
iPad units: 9.7m
Mac units: 5m
Services: $10.2b
Other products: $4.4b
Gross margin: 38.0%Fiscal Q1 2019:
Rev: $99.56b
EPS: $5.43
Gross margin: 38.3%
iPhone units: 81.2m
iPhone ASP: $810— Horace Dediu (@asymco) October 24, 2018
Dediu suggests Apple will have sold 46.7 million iPhones (around the same as last year), 9.7 million iPads (down from 10.3 million last year), and 5 million Macs (down from 5.4 million last year).
