The iPhone’s upgrade supercycle analysts have been predicting for months won’t materialize until next year.
That’s according to reliable KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who is blaming the delay on production issues affecting iPhone X supply, among other things.
iPhone sales have been less than spectacular in recent years, thanks to somewhat disappointing refreshes. iPhone 6, with its all-new design and bigger display, was a huge success — but many fans felt that iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 didn’t do enough to justify the upgrade fee.
iPhone X is expected to change that. Analysts have long been predicting that the device, which has been overhauled with a new look and exciting new features like Touch ID, will revitalize iPhone sales and send Apple revenue skyrocketing.
That was expected to happen this year, soon after iPhone X made its debut, but Kuo expects it to take longer. He’s blaming the delay on production issues affecting the handset’s TrueDepth camera, and a longer sales period.
Here’s the research note Kuo issues to investors, which was obtained by MacRumors:
The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera’s production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.
Apple is expected to iron out its production problems later this year, which will allow for shipments to “pick up strongly” in early 2018.
iPhone X will make its official debut on November 3, but you’ll be able to pre-order it from October 27. You’ll have to be quick if you hope to secure one for launch day delivery, because these delays are going to mean that initial supplies are incredibly constrained.
