One analyst Wednesday expressed ‘measured enthusiasm’ for Apple’s iPad, the thin, lightweight tablet device Cupertino announced after months of speculation. Despite the cautionary optimism, Piper Jaffray senior analyst Gene Munster said the iPad could mean $4.6 billion in new revenue for Apple by 2011.
“We have measured enthusiasm for the device’s first year, but we expect 2011 to be a breakout year for the iPad,” Munster told investors. The Apple watcher said it will take a year for the iPad business to ‘solidify’, but be worth $4.6 billion, or 7.5 percent of the company’s revenue in 2011.
Apple should sell 3 million to 4 million iPads within the first 12 months, double an earlier expectation of 2 million based on a $600 to $800 price tag. The analyst calls 2011 a ‘breakout year’ for the iPad, with sells of 8 million units.
Munster added by just 2011, iPad sales could equal the iPod’s, slicing 1.8 million of the popular iPod touch devices in 2010. Apple is expected to sell 20.6 million iPod touch units in 2010, down from an earlier projection of 22.4 million, according to the analyst. Although just announced, and not available until March, Munster forecasts 2.7 million iPads in calendar year 2010.
Although the iPad’s introduction could threaten sales of the touch, consumers seeking a mobile computer won’t necessarily view the tablet as an alternative to more traditional Macs. The iPad “is a premium mobile device, not a computer,” said Munster. “We see some iPod touch buyers stepping up to the iPad, but consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup,” he added.
