Tablet Forecasts: What’s In, What’s Out

Pete Mortensen ()

Tablet Forecasts: What’s In, What’s Out

Render via iSlate.org

Well, it’s finally here: Tablet Week. Or, as I like to think of it, it’s time for there to be Just One More Thing. We all know how significant we expect this announcement to be. A major new advancement in computing, a killer device for a market that has failed time after time, and, just maybe, the last great breakthrough product of Steve Jobs’s amazing career.

All will be revealed on Wednesday, but since we’ve got to something in the interceding 60 hours, I’ve decided to go all in and actually make some bets on killer features for the Apple Tablet With No Name. They’re my best guess based on what we know about the existing tablet and eReader markets, soon-to-launch technologies, and past actions of Apple itself. I haven’t touched one, I haven’t talked to anyone who has, and the Apple employees I’ve seen in the last few weeks are people who know even less about the big secret project than I do.

The Tablet Will Have a Custom UI, but Closer to iPhone Experience Than Mac

Probably the biggest question on everyone’s mind is what operating system will power Apple’s tablet of the future, with the leading candidates being Mac OS X and iPhone OS. The more I’ve thought about it, neither is perfectly suited to running such a device, which will be more focused on content creation than the iPhone but less so than the Mac. I’m therefore willing to say that the Tablet is a lock to get its own user interface built on top of core OS X technologies. It will be heavily gesturally driven (yes, even more so than the iPhone), and have far more precise sensing than the current iPhone screen. That said, this UI will more closely resemble the iPhone in look and functionality than it will Snow Leopard. Multitasking is still of less overall utility on a purely touch device than it is on one with a keyboard and mouse combo, so expect full-screen applications, no overlapping windows and possibly iPhone apps that run as widgets on a Dashboard.

A Novel Processor Will Run the Show, but the Screen Will Be a Standard LCD

Like a few other people, I believe that the Tablet will be Apple’s first product running on a processor designed by PA Semi, the Silicon Valley start-up it purchased a few years back to make what Steve Jobs described as “Systems-on-Chips for iPhones and iPods”. Those promised products haven’t arrived yet, but they’re a solid bet to here, as the demands of the device are different from just about anything else on the market. Expect tremendous power per watt, and excellent battery life beyond anything Intel’s Atom has shown so far. Don’t look for anything else exotic, however. This will have a standard LCD screen, not a Pixel Qi, AMOLED, or something more exciting like a shape-shifting screen that develops tactile keys when you type. On such a risky device as this, Apple will use safe technologies wherever it’s possible to.

Expect a 10-inch Tablet Computer, Not an Over-Sized iPhone

Steve Jobs has said it again and again — he only allows Apple to make devices that make sense to him. For that reason, he wouldn’t make a 5’ iPhone or even a 7’ one — they wouldn’t have obvious clear advantages over the 3.1’ model I have today. At 10’, far more complex gestures become possible, and new kinds of content becomes appealing and accessible. This will be netbook-sized in surface area, but probably even thinner than an iPhone. If looking for industrial design inspiration, see the screen of a current generation MacBook. Pull one off its hinges, shrink it by 25 percent, and you’ve got what this will look like.

The Tablet Loves Books, Magazines, and the Internet, but it Won’t Have Mobile Broadband

The best feature of the Amazon Kindle is its always-on, near-unlimited use 3G data plan included in the purchase price. It is the single differentiator that has allowed the Kindle to get traction when many well-conceived eReaders have flopped out of the gate, allowing mobile purchases of books anywhere you go. Unfortunately, the Tablet will not have built-in 3G (nor LTE, for those wondering). The reason the broadband link works on the Kindle is that the device’s black-and-white eInk screen isn’t suited for anything except reading text. No one’s hitting up YouTube or Hulu on a Kindle. The Apple Tablet, by contrast, will be in full-color and ready to tackle everything in the way of media consumption. Movies, TV, magazines, newspapers, the Web, and video games. No one wants another data plan, so I’m afraid this will be 802.11n only for the first generation. I do believe an LTE version will ship in 2011, but even Verizon’s network is too small to justify that kind of expense in what is sure to be a spendy product already.

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The Headline Here is Production, Not Consumption

Quite simply, the iPhone is one of the greatest entertainment devices ever created. Whether video, music, RSS reading, or games, it really does it all in a compelling fashion. In fact, it’s only evens light blindspot is as a book replacement, where the small screen gets a bit tiring on the eyes over time. But for all the attention lavished on the New York Times and Wired as they’ve flirtatiously hinted they were the reason that Apple was making a Tablet at all, they’re not the story. While the Tablet will have a great publications store for purchasing fantastically formatted magazines and newspapers, the actual focus of the Tablet is on creativity. With a 10’ screen, there’s ample room for this to be a true magic window, accepting a wide variety of finger paints, vector drawings, photo album layouts, movie editing, song recording and more. Apple doesn’t want to replace your computer, your phone, or your media player.

They want to replace the notebook you doodle in.

22 comments »

About the author

Petemortensen

Pete Mortensen is a design strategist for consulting firm Jump Associates and the co-author of Wired to Care: How Companies Prosper When They Create Widespread Empathy, a book and blog that are significantly more interesting than you might initially think. Pete's particular Apple avocations are both around design--interface and industrial. Follow him on Twitter!

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Posted in Apple Tablet, Opinions, Rumors, Top stories |

  • Seong-Hoon Lee

    Just have one more question,
    Mr.Mortensen have stated “the iPhone Apps might run as a dashboard”. Does that mean this Tablet will be able to run Snow Leopard?
    That is what I am hoping for since if this ‘iSlate’ will be running more close to iPhone OS, then what is the point of all the people using only Mac and not iPhone? For me, if Apple shows non-Mac OS X for Tablet, it looks like Apple is wanting more money and popularity from App Store.
    Plus, this will be a good time for Apple to kill all Jailbreakers for iPhone and iPod Touch.

  • Pete Mortensen

    I actually don’t think it will be straight Snow Leopard, but I do think it will have a Dashboard-like environment for certain utility-type iPhone apps. Think Stocks and weather, not Tweetie.

  • porkchop1234

    In other words a high bred OS.
    Less then 3 days and counting, I can hardly wait for the announcement so all these rumors finally get put to rest.

  • Charlie

    I agree 100% that the tablet is about creating things and the user interface. I think the big hidden feature that no one is talking about is how it will be used with your primary PC. I think Apple is going to design the tablet so it can double as the ultimate touch keyboard.. the ultimate FingerWorks keyboard no one could afford if that is all it was used for rather than as a portable as well.

    FingerWorks is the company that Apple bought and mined for their touch interface and gestures. They made a great touch keyboard that was very expensive and was near being perfect.. I think Apple has finally perfected it.

    http://www.ergocanada.com/products/keyboards/fingerworks_lp.html

  • Poppa

    What if there is no Tablet anounced? I hope there is

  • Andrew

    I like all that you say but do believe that mobile broadband will be an option at least. A couple of reasons. Firstly, I can see it being a way to amortize a part of the cost with a phone company subsidy. Secondly, a buddy in Apple didn’t body swerve a cunning question well enough and left me with the distinct impression that they were in negotiation with carriers. Just my read of course; they weren’t stupid enough to say anything but, equally, Apple don’t train their employees to be as slippery as a politician.

  • Drew Caster

    I disagree with the production position. I think this is 100% about consuming content between our desktops and our phones.

    None of the example you gave for content creation are exactly compelling reasons to buy a new device.

  • ged

    is that a big iphone in your pocket or you just pleased to see me

  • alan

    Preceding

  • Greg Ward

    I really love the way they “flick” content from a desktop to a tablet in Avatar. That’s what I would like to see on the iSlate – neither a big iPhone nor a keyboardless Air – rather a typical Apple rethink. A hybrid device that allows you to start work on your main computer and seamlessly flick it onto the tablet for consumption and/or more work.

    I’d also like to see the opposite. For example checking emails on the iSlate when watching TV – then “flicking” the pictures you just received on email up to the big screen TV.

  • Chris

    I had a thought when I went into my local Apple store earlier.
    I was showing my dad around and got to the Macbook Air. Anyone else notice how out of place it looks now?
    So my thinking is they’re gonna fully update it to match the rest of the Macbook lineup this week.
    But, what if Apple decided to drop the Air completely and bring the Tablet in its place?
    To me that sorta makes sense, given how long its been since an upgrade and its primary use being for traveling when you can’t take a full-sized laptop.
    They rebranded the 13″ Macbook as a Pro, so why not the Tablet as the Air?
    Of course I could be wrong and probably will be, but I’d like to think it could be possible.

  • Lars Pallesen

    I agree with most of your predictions except for a couple of points; I DO think that 3G-connectivity will be offered as an option in addition to the obvious Wi-Fi connection of the device. The very point of the tablet is to be connected everywhere. For the tablet to be a true “take it anywhere-device” which also works when riding the train or sitting in the park it needs 3G-connectivity.
    But for customers who find their needs covered by Wi-Fi when at home or at school/work, they can get the tablet as a Wi-Fi only device.

    Also I’m not so sure that the emphasis of the tablet will be on creativity/productivity (the splashy artwork of the invite notwithstanding). Its greatest sellingpoint will be the combination of direct acces to 130.000 apps of all sorts in the App Store + iTunes Store with music, movies, TV-shows and now books and magazines. Just my two cents.

  • http://www.ideorium.net belenus

    a new medium for digital painting softwares!

  • http://ihbs.co.uk Ben

    I dont see why a touch version of snow leopard would be fantastic. having the dock and then the menu bar at the top would be much more elegant for this device than what the iphone has. not to mention it looks a lot better than these wierd widget pages that seem to have popped up in images of a tablet

  • http://www.cultofmac.com Leigh McMullen

    Actually Pete… you make a great point on content creation…

    did you see any of the documentaries, or articles in Wired on the making of Avitar? JC used a big panel like device to visualize his world in CG… could totally see a Xth generation tablet being used like this, like a camera with a HUGE finder.

  • Roger Owens

    There are other possible uses. What a great video phone this would make. 3G/4G or 802.11n or whatever. It really ought to have lots of I/O connectors, Bluetooth, etc. so 3rd parties can extend it for uses not yet thought of, like lab uses, testing devices, mini-TV Station, etc.

    Why isn’t anyone predicting futuristic capabilities to show up on this device like speech recognition for control of the device and apps, like video&audio blogging (think Captain’s log reporting to Star Fleet command, etc.)? Others predict hand and finger gesturing and soft full size keyboard control, why wouldn’t Apple, Inc. solve the vexing, inefficient input/output problems we’ve had to deal with using computers for decades?

    But it seems to me the most obvious use will be to replace dated or obsolete “technologies” like newspapers, text books, and $30 hard cover books.

    I agree with most off the other folks here, but I think it will be multi-purpose leaning toward consumption.

  • http://www.drtablet.com Dr. Tablet

    I agree re: the lack of 3G on the initial models. Most predictions indicate otherwise, but as you say – if the device is designed for consuming content, then WiFi is the only economical method of doing so – especially as it seems like it’s been designed for a household/family environment.

    I do hope however that it allows bluetooth pairing with a phone / internet tethering. I imagine it probably won’t. But if it did, at least that way I could get it to share my iPhone’s data connection (what? OK, you’re right … carrying a tablet and an iPhone might be a bit much… but still… ;)

    –
    http://www.drtablet.com – Tablet news, info, reviews and opinions.

  • Charli

    okay Pete. I’ll take you on.

    3g. yes it will be there. required, I think not. GSM only, maybe but likely not. I’m thinking both chips, unlocked and optional. that way those that want it can have it and those that really like their T-Mobile, Verizon etc won’t have to switch which would put off sales.

    you don’t mention battery. this will be a hyped point. same battery tech as the laptops I”m thinking with the same longer charge times etc.

    the dashboard thing. perhaps. but i’m thinking not as an overall scheme. and option for those developers that feel no need to upscale their apps. I do agree that things like the weather and stocks would be contenders.

    the whole eReader side of things will be the major content hype of the day. We all know the netbook, ipod etc stuff. They will mention that many existing apps will already work on the tablet and developers can today download all the tools to test and update their apps for tablet use. perhaps a brief mention that all the LP and Extras stuff will work on the tablet and that it can play those higher def 720p files. and then they will launch into a big talk about the eReader.

  • chano

    Shameless Mr. Mortensen. You are simply adding fuel to the fire.
    An interesting article though, intelligent and well written. I wish there was more ‘considered’ opinion like this on the web, rather than simple regurgitations of other people’s (usually) incorrect pronouncements, without any exercise of judgment or any endeavours to add value to the debate.
    I think PixelQi were too late to be considered for a tablet display, (watch them though) but this raises the question, how will Apple approach eReader levels of legibility – high contrast, transflective and hence, non-tiring (on the eyes) display tech?
    I think it is important that a new tablet can, in no way, be regarded as a squashed MacBook or an enlarged iPod Touch/iPhone. Apple made the groundbreaking journey from Mac OSX to iPhone/Touch OS many years ago, and steadily refined both since. I feel sure that they would have done the little extra OS work needed to differentiate a tablet from devices on either side if it in the product range. Get too close to either side and it becomes difficult to justify a purchase. People would either go large or go small if you will pardon the McDonalds-ism. Think Differentiate, I say.
    Thanks for a good article.

  • chano

    …… and, just maybe, the last great breakthrough product of Steve Jobs’s amazing career.

    Don’t say that. Don’t even think it.
    Apple is on a roll after a long hard struggle post-1997.
    I believe that we are witnessing a carefully crafted strategy unfolding and that the best is yet to come. The hub is far from complete.

  • pezdave

    If you think about it, creating an industry defining tablet is lined with several problems that demand answers?

    - How can a tablet be comfortable on the eyes, like e-ink, while still being full color with a sharp and vibrant display? Technology is week in this area.
    - What role would a tablet play that would be different than my iphone and laptop?
    - How will a tablet change the world? This is Steve’s goal for Apple, to change the world.

    No matter how much, I think about these issues – I see no way to solve these problems. Rest assured that Job’s has solved them. Wednesday will be a greater day than anyone expected. Watch out world!

  • Roger Owens

    Oh yes, I forgot that. Thanks to John Brownlee’s for his post today. Have you seen how well the EyeTV works on a Mac to bring Digital TV signals into the Mac? Wonderful. Small. Why wouldn’t Apple eventually give us a TV and Internet streaming TV programs on a “tablet.” Ever since Apple entered the consumer markets, I’ve thought that someday they would make a portable TV. Like I said before, a small TV studio or just a consuming TV, this device could do so much. It may not be ’til the 3rd generation like the iPhone has matured into the product it always should have been. Apple has a way of telling us we need (want) something that we had no clue we really did want. They are the champion of Marketing lately.