How To Estimate How Long You’ll Have To Wait To Get Into Orchestra’s Mailbox App

mailbox-app

We’re huge fans of Orchestra’s email inbox management app, Mailbox, here at Cult of Mac. Less popular around here? The extraordinary queue that Orchestra forces you to sit in before they’ll let you into the app.

The reason Orchestra has set it up this way is to prevent demand from crushing their servers, but that doesn’t make it any less annoying (for more info on Orchestra’s rationale, see this article). When we download apps, we expect to be able to use them right away, not sit in a queue for an indeterminate amount of time.

We can’t help you get to the head of the Mailbox queue, but we can tell you roughly how long you’ll have to wait based on how fast Mailbox has let people into the app in the past. Here’s how.

Reader Phillip G. wrote us, telling us he had been tracking how many people on average Mailbox was letting into the app, based upon how many people were ahead of him in the queue. Averaging it out over the course of a few days, Phillip determined that Mailbox’s servers are allowing about 19.5 individuals per minute access to the app.

Consequently, it’s actually pretty easy to estimate how long you’ll have to wait to get into Mailbox:

50,000 — 42.7 hours (1.77 days)
100,000 — 85.4 hours (3.56 days)
200,000 — 170.9 hours (7.08 days)
300,000 — 256.4 hours (10.68 days)
500,000 — 427.3 hours (17.8 days)

Phillip G. points out that “this is only an estimate, as Orchestra has indicated that the rollout will be exponential, but at least this gives a time if rollout is linear.” So don’t set your watch by this estimate. Still, it does make it a little easier to wait if you know it’s only going to be a day or two, instead of a few months.

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  • grelca

    Well in my first 24 hours, the people in front of me went down by 10,000. Second 24 hours 20,000. Third 24 hours another 20,000. And another 20,000 since then in the pats 18ish. So I would say it’s definitely not linear even in just the past few days.

  • dieselmaniac

    Took 3 days for me.

  • Atienne

    I think its pretty fair thing top do. Why have people screaming about down servers when you don’t have to? It’s not like you don’t have access to your email while you wait.

  • PedZad

    Through accurate observations, I have noticed that it takes three seconds for an individual to be let in. So Use the following formula. (number of people in front of you * 3) / 3600 = Your wait time in hrs.

  • geeklibrarian

    Per the very article you linked to (http://www.cultofmac.com/215183/why-you-have-to-wait-to-use-mailbox-on-your-iphone/) as time goes on, the number of people allowed access will accelerate. Using an “average” is the wrong mathematical approach. But thanks for another time-wasting article.

  • geeklibrarian

    So I would say it’s definitely not linear even in just the past few days.

    And we have a winner! (But Orchestra themselves has stated as much.

  • grelca

    And we have a winner! (But Orchestra themselves has stated as much.

    True but actually showing the numbers demonstrating something to be true is more telling than just a company saying it. :D

  • Inginious

    How are they making money, though?

  • Gastono

    I have to wait nearly 25 days!
    Mailbox App Time Calculator http://goo.gl/BfwmH

About the author

John BrownleeJohn Brownlee is a Contributing Editor. He has also written for Wired, Playboy, Boing Boing, Popular Mechanics, VentureBeat, and Gizmodo. He lives in Boston with his girlfriend and two parakeets. You can follow him here on Twitter.

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