It’s pretty clear that the iPhone is going to boost Apple’s bottom line this coming Wednesday, September 12, when it’s expected to release along with an invite-only event at the Yerba Buena Center in San Francisco. Michael Feroli, chief economist for investment firm, J.P. Morgan, thinks it might actually raise the overall U.S. economy.
Yeah, that’s kind of a big deal.
According to Reuters, Feroli and the other analysts at J.P. Morgan expect to see sales at about 8 million units of the upcoming iPhone 5 in the fourth quarter alone. If the new iPhones sell for an average of $600 apiece, the effect on gross domestic product will be significant, even if discounted imported component prices are taken into account.
“Calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost annualized GDP growth by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate,” Feroli wrote. That 0.33 percentage-point boost, he added, “would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth protection, which remains 2.0 percent.”
Feroli made sure to caution readers of his note this evening, saying that the impact may actually be a bit of an overestimate, “and for that reason should be treated skeptically.” He continued, noting that when the previous model iPhone was launched in October of 2011, it outperformed all sales expectations.
“Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned … is reasonable,” Feroli wrote.
It’s fascinating to see the cultural and financial impact this one device from one device manufacturer is having across our world. Only time will show the full measure of the iPhone’s effect on the world as we know it.
How about you? Will you be contributing to the rise in the U.S. gross domestic product this week? Let us know in the comments below.