Apple’s quarterly earnings call is set to take place later today, but one set of figures we’re not expecting to get is the initial Apple Watch sales. Apple has already acknowledged this data be hidden in the “other products” category — alongside the iPod, Apple TV, Beats Electronics and accessories division.
However, while Apple is likely to keep quiet on the exact breakdown of Apple Watch sales, it will be possible to get a rough idea of how the company’s debut wearable device is faring by doing the following:
As Quartz notes, over the past four consecutive quarters, revenue from Apple’s “other products” category has fallen by around 6 percent, visible from the above chart. This suggests that, not accounting for the Apple Watch, the category would likely pull in between $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion for the June 2015 quarter. Any spike over this amount is likely to be the Apple Watch.
If users estimate that Apple is making between $500 and $700 per Watch, reflecting the relative popularity of lower-end Apple Watch Sport models over higher-end wearables, then every added $1 billion Apple makes in the “other” category translates to roughly 2 million to 3 million Watches sold.
This isn’t an exact science, but it does mean we should be able to start gauging the approximate popularity of the Apple Watch in its early days.
Don’t get too excited, though: According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, the Apple Watch is unlikely to truly find its audience until 2017. Let’s not forget that the original iPhone sold just 1.39 million units in its first year — around a tenth of what the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus did in their launch weekend.