Predicting the future of any technology is a risky proposition. Weird, unexpected things happen that no one can anticipate. Lest any of us forget, for a brief moment in 1998, many assumed that DVD-Audio would replace the CD before something called Napster totally changed the game.
But predictions of the future are fun (why else is speculation about Apple so fascinating?), and everyone gets in on the act at some point. The latest to try to imagine what comes after the iPod is Rick Rubin, the bearded producer who launched the career of the Beastie Boys and revived those of the Red Hot Chili Peppers and Johnny Cash. He’s legitimately credited with helping to break hip hop worldwide, but I hardly think his abilities to accurately read the new sound 20 years ago has anything to do with his ability to guess how we’ll get our music.
“You’d pay, say, $19.95 a month, and the music will come anywhere you’d like. In this new world, there will be a virtual library that will be accessible from your car, from your cellphone, from your computer, from your television. Anywhere. The iPod will be obsolete, but there would be a Walkman-like device you could plug into speakers at home.”
You want to know what I love about this quote? That it’s actually stating the complete obvious, but it also anticipates a future where people treat music differently than they do now. First, yes, the iPod will be obsolete at some point in the future. And then Apple will release a new one, including one that works in speakers at home (Oh, wait, that’s been around for years). People are obsessed with the current solution instead of thinking about the needs that it meets.
The bigger question is why anyone thinks subscription music will suddenly take off, however, I can’t guess. Subscription music has never been big, dating to the Columbia Record Club. We’re probably only a year or two from a time when we can put our entire iTunes libraries into a cloud we can access from anywhere, but I want it to be my library, not every song ever. I want to have access to the whole library and choose a song to download, but I want to add things to my library, not have glorified radio going on.
But you heard it here first folks: Sometimes, technology gets obsoleted!
Via Epicenter.
8 responses to “Rick Rubin Sez: “My Beard Shall Replace The iPod!””
Personally I don’t think that the subscription model is ever going to go anywhere, but… if you take the same idea of “all music available all the time” from the net and couple that with micropayments then you’re talking. Your iPod-like device would just contain your playlist and when you want to listen to a song it costs some fraction of a cent to stream it. You won’t even think about it as a purchase.
The subscription paradigm has been wildly successful in many applications, cable TV being the most obvious. But we also don’t think twice about Internet, mobile phones, NetFlix, the gym, and even our credit cards. Each of these use the frame of reference where we have a predictable, constant, fixed cost each month. With a bit of work we could all probably spend a little less on the phone if we dumped the monthly plans. We all love the idea of occasionally paying $12 for a month instead of the usual $50, but the fear of of bill for 90 bucks scares us into going with the fixed price.
But music is very different. TV, Video, and telephones are communication. Music is personal. We don’t listen to music and hear the individual notes. We hear memories, we feel emotions, we internalize the sound and interpret it individually. When we watch Star Trek, everyone sees Spock wearing a blue shirt. When we hear Rhapsody in Blue we all see a different picture in our mind, or feel different emotions. We rent DVDs, we record over TiVo and VHS all the time, but we keep music.
These other constructs are disposable; we use them and throw it away. We listen to music we like over and over again. That’s why we want to own it. And we aren’t willing to pay a subscription for our memories.
“We’re probably only a year or two from a time when we can put our entire iTunes libraries into a cloud we can access from anywhere, but I want it to be my library, not every song ever.†– Leander Kahney?
Leander,
We’ve got what you need, and we have it now! Please check http://www.dottunes.net/ .
You can access your own iTunes library from any mac or pc on the internet, gaming consoles, and now, the iPhone. You can even securely share specific songs, movies and playlists amongst your own private network of family, friends, and/or business associates.
Already, Artists, DJ’s, Producers, Creative Directors at TV Networks and Ad Agencies use this tool to satisfy a bevy of previously impossible tasks.
We’d be very interested if you think that the future you envision is indeed in the present by adding DOT.TUNES to you toolset.
your outfit just covered the surface in The Listening Post, but we think the entire movement around this capability stands to change both the creative and business frameworks of media business, both b2b and consumer and would love to see an indepth feature in WIRED or WIRED.com
http://blog.wired.com/music/20…
Get at us so we can get you up in running. The future is now.
There is currently an application called DOT.TUNES which allows you to access, share, publish and manipulate the contents of your iTunes library remotely over any device capable of an internet connection. With DOT.TUNES you can select specific songs to stream or download, publish playlists which you can give others access to (by creating usernames, passwords and permissions), browse playlists and watch movies.
You can upload songs to your iTunes library from anywhere, and those songs will be synchronized automatically. DOT.TUNES extends the reach of your iTunes library beyond your desktop, into the web, making it accessible anytime, anywhere.
The day that Rick Rubin was talking about is already here, but it will not be according to the rules or within the confines of the music industry (and not likely through the subscription model), but rather, by the way people choose to access their music, which is anytime anywhere.
DOT.TUNES is leading the charge towards free music, by making your music available via any device. They currently have plug-ins developed for the iPhone, the Nintendo Wii, Sony Playstation, PSP and PS3 gaming consoles, which allows the user to access their music either through the television or on the consoles themselves. DOT.TUNES can also be accessed via most internet capable phones, like Palm devices, although some playback capabilities are dependent upon the actual device you are using.
DOT.TUNES is free to download, and the plug-ins are priced between $10 and $100 (for a bundled suite of plug-ins).
I’m confident that there any many people looking for the type of solution that Petermortensen is looking for, so please visit http://dottunes.net to download the application or to learn more about DOT.TUNES.
As they say at DOT.TUNES, FREE YOUR TUNES!