The nattering nabobs of negativism on Wall Street think Apple’s runaway success is over.
Apple’s stock has been in the doldrums for the last six months, and the reason is that analysts don’t think Apple can keep it up. Here’s what they’re saying:
As noted by Philip Elmer-Dewitt at Fortune’s Apple 2.0, analysts like RBC’s Mike Abramsky don’t think Apple has another big hit like the iPad in the pipe:
Last year investors were excited about Apple’s massive tablet head start and iPhone share gains/market expansion (e.g. the Verizon iPhone),” he wrote by way of explanation. “This year, the multiple has been compressed by the market. Investors appear more restrained than last year, considering the big run in the stock. It reflects market uncertainty regarding what will drive the next leg of growth, how much or not Android will impact Apple, Steve’s health, etc.
His sentiments were echoed by Susquehanna’s Jeff Fidacaro, who thinks that “Apple’s quarters of breakneck growth are largely over,” and BCG Partner’s Collin Gillis, who said Apple’s most recent quarter “was about as good as it gets.”
A year ago, the iPad was a new source of revenue for Apple,” says Gillis. “Growth over zero was tremendous. Now it’s not, and revenue growth has to slow down.
Are they right? Is the iPhone and iPad train slowing down? Doesn’t look that way to me. What about Apple’s expansion into overseas markets, like China?