Predicting sales of a new product based on demand from eager early adopters can be risky. However, one analyst made such a leap. Bernstein Research analyst Tom Sacconaghi told investors Thursday Apple could sell 25 million iPads in 2011. But, then again, it might sell 18 million tablets next year. It kind of depends, you know?
“An analysis based on extrapolating sales trajectories of [the iPhone, iPod and all netbooks] suggests that Apple could sell a staggering 25 million iPads or more in fiscal 2011,” the analyst wrote. This seems to go along with Apple reporting selling three million iPads in the first 80 days.
However. Can you get from there to 25 million? Sacconaghi was quick to hedge his bet. Although iPad sales began at a fast pace, there is no certainty it will continue. But that 25 million figure could be built on a house of cards. Apple could also sell 18 million iPads in 2011.
“We note that the range of outcomes is wide and uncertain, particularly since the product use cases and competitive offerings are very nascent,” the analyst waffled. In other words, the iPad is so new and the excitement exhibited by first-adopters might not hold up in all buyers. In a bit of truth-telling, Sacconaghi warns investors “we do not have high conviction in our estimate.”
The wide disparity it projected sales is understandable. With less than two week before Apple releases real sales figures, analysts feel the need to look into their crystal ball and project outcomes. But a heavy dose of skepticism should accompany these prognostications.
[All Things Digital and 9to5Mac]
