An analyst Tuesday issued a very bullish prediction for iPhone and iPad sales next year, double that of other onlookers and following lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales. Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair believes the Cupertino, Calif. company will sell 100 million iPhones and up to 48 million iPads in 2011.
While Blair admits the sales estimate is a “staggering number any way you look at it,” he insists Apple is prepping for a “nearly 100 percent year-over-year growth for iPhone” next year. By comparison, Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner believes Apple will sell 52 million iPhones and 23 million iPads during 2011. On the low end, following lower than expected fourth-quarter numbers, Needham & Company analyst Charlie Wolf predicts Apple will sell only 18 million iPads, but cautioned even that figure may be too high if tablet distribution doesn’t increase.
Blair’s 100 percent year-over-year projection for iPhone sales growth in 2011 would not be far from Apple’s official sales for this fiscal year. In a 10-K statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Cupertino, Calif. company said it sold 39.9 million iPhones in fiscal 2010, a 93 percent increase over fiscal 2009, and 7.4 million iPads.
Like other experts, Blair sees iPad growth propelled by the iPad 2.0, an updated tablet many expect will include a front-facing camera and thinner design.
In terms of Mac sales, Blair expects Apple’s recently unveiled $999 MacBook Air laptop to provide a “meaningful opportunity” for hardware sales. “Apple has created something rather spectacular with the new Air, but has done so in almost a stealthy manner,” he told investors.
Wedge Partners has a mixed record for previously predicting Apple actions. In 2009, the company predicted Apple would refresh its iMac and MacBook devices, but was off by a few months when the firm’s analyst Matt Mathison predicted Apple would launch an iPhone in China before February. The handset actually appeared in October 2009.
