iPhone 7 demand predicted to be ‘remarkably high’

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Apple iPhone 6s
The iPhone 7's reception will be anything but frosty.
Photo: Ste Smith/Cult of Mac

Forget about the “peak iPhone” problem: Goldman Sachs thinks this year’s iPhone 7 is going to be a big one for Apple.

Coming off the back of Apple selling its billionth iPhone sometime this summer, the bank’s senior equity research analyst Simona Jankowski says the number of people clamoring to get their hands on Apple’s next-gen iPhone will be “remarkably high.”

The Goldman Sachs analyst’s theory is based on an online survey of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers over the age of 18. While Jankowski found that “just” 17 percent plan to buy an iPhone over the next three months, a sizable 44 percent said they would be purchasing the iPhone 7 this fall.

Of these, 70 percent already claim to be iPhone owners, while around 24 percent are so-called “switchers” leaving the doldrums of Android for a brighter, happier life on iOS.

What impresses Jankowski most of all, however, is what she expects to happen with the replacement cycle for Apple’s next iPhone. She writes:

“To us, the most significant aspect of this response is that a third of the replacement demand is coming from current generation (i.e. less than 1-year old phone) users. This could suggest that the iPhone 7 will drive a shorter replacement cycle, perhaps in response to installment/lease plans such as the iPhone Upgrade Program, which allow a user to upgrade to the newest phone every year while maintaining a flat monthly bill.”

In contrast to Apple’s major iPhone 6 redesign in 2014, this September’s iPhone 7 is expected to offer only minor changes to the design, such as the removal of two antenna bands on the back, a dual-lens camera and a slightly thinner body.

Writing about Apple’s forthcoming Q2 financial report later this month, Jankowski says she expects Apple to beat expectations with $54.4 billion in revenue and $2.17 earnings-per-share. That compares to a consensus view of $52.03 billion and $2 earnings-per-share.

She also thinks Apple will announce 53.6 million iPhones have sold in the quarter, compared to a consensus of 50 million.

Source: Barron’s

  • imtough

    If the rumors are correct and its going to keep the same form factor sans an antenna line, I’m out. Don’t need a dual camera- I’m not an avid photographer. I liked the edge-to-edge display rumor, but I fear it is only that. The old “its faster and a millimeter thinner” ruse is not enough to make an annual investment. I’m not asking for revolutionary, just something to be excited about- maybe same screen size with smaller physical footprint, eliminate the outdated home button and make the phone more efficient by integrating 3D/Force Touch and gestures. Something that says progress and future rather than money-milking iterations of the old.

    • Richard Ludwig

      Looking at past history, the Prime Number releases are the ones that see physical design changes (though the 5 looked similar to the 4, just a larger screen). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a design change of some sort with the 7.

      Even though the rumor mill has gotten pretty good, it’s not perfect.

      • c_hack

        Actually, the biggest physical changes were the iPhone 4 and 6. Neither are prime numbers.

      • Richard Ludwig

        You are right – I should have chosen my words more carefully – I didn’t mean Prime as in the mathematical “Prime Numbers”, I meant “Prime” vs. “S”.
        Add the iPhone 3G to that as well (it was a big design change from the first iPhone).
        Personally, I count the 5 as a big design change because of the change in screen size. You could make the argument that “it was just a stretched 4” (from a design PoV) – and you wouldn’t be wrong. To me, it’s still a design change (where the design didn’t change from “prime” to “S”).

        The design change may not be major, but I would be surprised if there was NO visual design change.

  • c_hack

    I’m not even going to consider it if it has no headphone jack. I’m not going to throw out hundreds of dollars of quality headphones to support a new iPhone, and I do not want to carry around some sort of dongle adapter attached to my phone.

  • winnertakesteve

    weird, this upgrade cycle strikes me as one of the least compelling based on everything that has been rumoured so far. And that’s on top of a general fatigue with the whole “your social media rectangle has been replaced by a slightly better social media rectangle!”

    But then who am I to question statistics presented by analysts?

    • Richard Ludwig

      Rumors aren’t everything!