In a striking sign of how the iPad dominates the tablet market, Android phone owners will likely bypass tablets powered by Google’s Honeycomb for Apple, one Wall Street analyst told investors Friday.
Cannacord Genuity analyst Mike Walkley said some Android-based tablets could compete against the iPad, but not until at least 2013. The likely challengers: Samsung, Asus and Amazon. A Microsoft tablet in 2012 “could sell well,particularly to the enterprise channel,” further shaking RIM’s chances of recovery, according to the analyst.
However, Apple is building a massive base of 250 million iOS users at the end of fiscal 2011 – nearly doubling by the end of 2012, Walkley writes. The growing iOS user base coupled with an expected 40 percent replacement rate prompts him to expect 50 million “iOS replacement sales” in fiscal 2011, 100 million in fiscal 2012 and 200 million in fiscal 2013.
In addition, carrier checks find the iPhone 4 and iPad 2 were top-sellers at AT&T and Verizon. Walkley raised his 2011 iPhone estimate to 77.3 million units, up from 75.5 million, and his 2012 iPhone sales estimate to 100.2 million handsets, up from 94 million units. Similarly, the analyst also increased his iPad 2 sales estimate for 2012 to 55.1 million, up from 53.8 million.
Apple’s base of iOS users “will drive sustained longer-term earnings growth and enable it to maintain a key competitive advantage versus its competitors,” the Cannacord Genuity analyst concludes.