And the roulette wheel of Apple Watch predictions lands on… zero? Photo: John Wardell/Flickr CC
Even in the wake of an uber-popular device like the iPhone 6, which sold upward of 10 million units in its first weekend alone, it’s fascinating to see analysts hedging their bets when it comes to the Apple Watch. The spread of predictions from these professional prognosticators might as well have been generated at random.
The latest group to weigh in is Strategy Analytics, which is predicting that the Apple Watch will sell (or at least ship) 15.4 million units worldwide in 2015, which would still make Cupertino the world’s No. 1 smartwatch vendor, but with a much smaller market share than others are predicting.
With iOS 7 Beta 1 now out on the iPhone, the next obvious question is “When is iOS 7 Beta 2’ coming out? And what about Beta 3? Beta 4? When will iOS 7 go gold?
Good questions, and obviously, only Apple could tell you for sure. But Apple’s been releasing post-WWDC betas long enough at this point that it’s pretty easy to track how long on average each beta takes, and by doing so, we can not only forecast when iOS 7 will be released with a probable amount of accuracy: we can put a date on the iPhone 5S’s release.
Here’s what we think. We think iOS 7 Beta 2 will be released next Monday, the 24th. iOS 7 will go gold on September 10th, the same day the iPhone 5S will be announced. And the iPhone 5S and iOS 7 will be released on September 20th. Here’s why.
The biggest tech trade show in the U.S. is just a week away. And while Apple doesn’t officially take part in the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), its influence will be everywhere.
Take Ultrabooks, for example — the PC industry’s answer to the hyper-successful MacBook Air. Attempting to catch up, Apple’s rivals will be showcasing 30 to 50 new models at CES.
There’s also the iLounge pavilion, a section devoted to Apple-related products, which has grown huge this year. The iLounge has balooned from 4,000 square feet in 2008 to 85,000. We think there’ll be plenty to report on, so we’re blowing out CES 2012 in a big way. We’re sending six reporters to Las Vegas, bringing you all the news here on Cult of Mac.com and our sister blog, Cult of Android.com.
We expect a ton of new peripherals, apps and add-ons. There’s plenty more going on, from new smart TVs to smartphone-friendly cars. Here’s what to expect from the show:
The iPhone 5 is imminent. Apple’s shipping times on the iPhone 4 are already slipping, and according to Cult of Mac’s own release timeline, it’ll be announced as early as September 21st and ship on October 7th.
That gives us a pretty good idea when the iPhone 5 will be released, but that still leaves a lot of questions. How fast will the iPhone 5 be? Will the iPhone 5 support 4G and/or LTE speeds? Will the iPhone 5 have a bigger display?How much storage will the iPhone 5 have? Will the iPhone 5 be a world phone? Will the iPhone 5 have a capacitive home button? And so on.
We think we know. Here’s our best guess based on the rumors so far and what Apple has done in the past exactly what the iPhone 5 will look like once it is released.
This week, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal and TechCrunch all published rumors that Apple plans to compete in the mid-ranged smartphone sector, with the launch of a smaller, more affordable iPhone, to be sold alongside the iPhone 4. At Cult of Mac, we predicted as much six weeks ago.
Of course, rumors of a smaller, cheaper iPhone are nothing new. They’ve been around for almost as long as the iPhone itself. And with good reason. Any seasoned Apple watcher will recognize this as Steve Jobs’ standard MO. Launch an iconic, up-market product, allow the market for it to grow and mature, and when the underlying technology becomes cheap enough, introduce a smaller, more affordable mass market version.
The team at Realmac Software – makers of apps like LittleSnapper and RapidWeaver, among others – have posted their thoughts about what changes the Mac App Store may bring.
Lower prices is one. Perhaps not as low as we’ve seen for iOS, but certainly lower than many developers charge right now. The old argument applies: Apple is creating a marketplace that didn’t exist before. That’s why it takes its 30% cut, and why the overall volume of sales should increase (hopefully).
Another prediction is simpler apps that do, ahem, one thing well. Complicated do-everything applications are hard to put into categories, and hard to explain to customers in the limited space available on a typical App Store page. Apps that just do a single job are easier to understand in an instant, and therefore easier to sell.
That said, it’s important to remember that the Mac App Store is, for now at least, just one way to get software installed on your Mac. Developers will be free to sell their wares via their own websites using traditional methods. There’s going to be a transition period where software is bought and sold both ways. The question everyone’s asking is: how long will that period last? Years? Months?
If you develop for OS X, do you agree with Realmac’s thoughts? Are you planning to reduce prices, and re-focus your apps for selling in the App Store? Do you think the App Store is going to completely take over, and how long will that take?