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When Will Apple Sell Its 10 Billionth App?

When Will Apple Sell Its 10 Billionth App?

When will Apple sell its 10 billionth app? Next Friday morning (PST), according to my calculations.

Here’s how I worked it out. We took a screenshot of Apple’s app counter at about 8am on Jan 14th for our first report about the sweepstakes. It showed ~9,775,350,000.

At 8am this morning (Jan 16), it showed ~9,830,422,000. That’s a difference of about 55,072,000 apps in 48 hours, which means apps are being sold at a rate of ~1,147,333 apps an hour. (CNet says Apple is selling 1,000 apps every second, or 1,200,000 apps an hour).

The counter is approximately 170,000,000 apps short of 10 billion. At a rate of ~1,147,333 apps an hour, it would take 148 hours — or 6 days — to hit the 10 billion mark. Hence, early Friday morning.

Now, I’ve flunked math all through my life, and I am in no doubt I’m totally wrong (plus I’ve done a ton of rounding). So please help me out. When will the 10 billionth app be sold?

UPDATE: Reader Allan in the comments reckons it will be Saturday evening PST. Here’s his reasoning: “The counter is running at about four seconds per 1,000 apps (watching the counter), or 15,000 per minute. That’s 900,000 per hour, or 21,600,000 a day. When the counter hits 9.862 billion, there will be 138 million to go. At 21.6 million a day, it will take 551,232 seconds to go another 138 million, or 6.38 days, which is six days and a bit over nine hours. Set your alarms.”