Morgan Stanley Cuts Apple to $95 And Drops iPhone Estimate
11:02 am, December 10th, 2008, Ed Sutherland
Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty Wednesday cut Apple’s target price to $95, down from $100. Huberty pointed to a survey indicating weaker consumer interest.
Huberty also trimmed her expectations for calendar 2009 iPhone sales to 14 million handsets, down
Photo: Cishore/Flickr
By contrast, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster expects Apple will sell 45 million iPhones next year.
A Morgan Stanley survey revealed 5 percent of consumers expressed “extreme” interest in the iPhone. That’s down from 7 percent in February of 2007.
The analyst said Apple could increase demand for the iPhone by reducing pricing, a possibility “increasingly likely,” according to Huberty.
Huberty also cut her forecast for Mac sales in calendar 2009 to 9.9 million, down from 10.8 million. She maintained expectations Apple will report selling 2.6 million Macs during the December period.
The analyst predicted iPod sales will drop 30 percent in calendar 2009 with 34.3 million iPods sold next year, down from 37.5 million.
“Huberty has turned lowering Apple targets into a bloodsport,” CNBC’s Jim Goldman reported Wednesday. Goldman noted the analyst previouslt was off by 700,000 iPhone sales, 2 million iPod shipments and 200,000 Mac sales.
Posted by Ed Sutherland in News | Comment on this article
That’s quite a spread between Munster and Huberty. Though past performance is no guarantee of future results, if forced to choose I’d probably say Munster is likely to be less wrong.
Hey, maybe I should be a stock analyst…
Lonnie Lazar, on December 10th, 2008 at 11:36 am
well, one of these people is wrong.
DAVID OWENS, on December 10th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
45 million? really. I really don’t think that’s going to happen.
r2, on December 10th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Munster at least gets out and looks at the stores – HIs number may be high but certainly closer than Huberty ….
As for Huberty’s price target of $100 – yea right it is already trading in that range, why didn’t this price target come out say 3 months ago before the stock fell thru the roof!
Ansel Wade, on December 10th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Katheryn Huberty has been looked at as an idiot in the technology space for years.
Not an idiot savant, just an idiot.
She personifies the Peter Principle.
Quick…who can come up with the last time she was withing 20% of being right?
OK, 30%…
That’s right, try never.
Realitybites, on December 11th, 2008 at 7:11 am
Munster is a permabull, but has a better record.
His thesis, which makes sense, is that the iPhone will see another price drop and/or more price points in 09. Which Apple will certainly have room to do.
What does it mean to have a $95 target anyway? Does this mean she’s wrong if the stock goes higher… right if it hits the price on any given day?
More like non-analysis.
Anyway, she has an opinion, but no track record.
Both numbers are possible. But I don’t think the boys and girls in Cupertino will just sit around and let only 14 million worldwide happen. Remember that a $199 to $99 price drop is only a $600 to $500 to Apple. Between normal component price trends and the weak commodity markets, Apple will be able to do that without hurting its margins one bit.
yet another steve, on December 13th, 2008 at 5:54 pm