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‘Game Over’, AppleTV (Watch Your Back HBO)

goatv

AppleTV is dead, it just hasn’t stopped moving yet.  With fewer than 2 million units sold, it hasn’t achieved the commercial success of its rivals, and continues as a failed effort on the part of Apple to extend the digital hub into the living room.

The final nail in AppleTV’s coffin comes yesterday as Netflix announces a digital only subscription option, but the fatal shot was fired back in November.  Follow me after the jump, as we discuss how Netflix strategy not only killed AppleTV but also threatens more than just longtime rival Blockbuster, and what (if anything) Apple can do about it.

On November 19th 2008, 28 million XBox 360 consoles woke up with the ability to stream movies from Netflix. Overnight, Netflix projected themselves into living rooms of over 10 million XBOX Live Gold subscribers. A couple of months later, in January of this year, they fired again, and added nearly 4 million TIVO subscribers to the mix.

No big deal, right? AppleTV’s, Tivo’s and a dozen other set-top boxes from cable companies and off-brands alike have some kind of streaming capability. Most of the Apple faithful probably shrugged it off –just as they did Steve’s announcement of movie downloads to AppleTV the year before. It’s just Pay-per-view nothing new about that, Right?

Netflix has been making a bundle and seizing market-share with both hands from competitors who either realize too late that they’re competitors, or shrug off their offerings as ‘also-rans’.

What people don’t understand is that Netflix offering on XBoxes and TIVOs is that it’s not just pay-per-view, it’s a subscription service, that for $8.99 –the cost of two pay-per-view movies a month– gives consumers unlimited downloads and video rentals (one movie out at a time). And yesterday they’ve announced a new plan for online only which will likely have a more attractive price point.

Shows stream to my TV, Laptop, Desktop, Netbook, (and though I haven’t tried, I’m sure there are or will be phones that work with the service) in SD or HD depending on my bandwidth. My play queue, and even pause points persist across multiple devices.  After using the service for 3 months now, I have to report, it’s nearly flawless.

This is a huge deal –whose aftershocks we’ve not even begun to feel.

For example, I have a wife who is seriously questioning why we need HBO? Most movies on HBO are or will be on Netflix soon. The series’ I like to watch on HBO and Showtime are on Netflix shortly after the season ends. “We can wait”, she says. Our “Now Playing” queue on our TIVO proves it.

Prime time shows too, no need to pay for iTunes downloads of ‘Heroes’, when I can watch the whole series wherever, whenever, on whatever thanks to powerful mobile devices, open standards, big bandwidth, and ubiquitous connectivity.

Netflix has skyrocketed from a Blockbuster challenger, to a game changer that threatens several entrenched business models from video rental to pay-per-view, and now even premium cable channels.  We’ve not seen it’s like as a revolutionary force for an industry since iTunes, which is ironic since iTunes own video service finds itself under fire.

I’m not saying folks need to trash their AppleTV’s. Heck with very minor modification’s they’re the least expensive legitimate Macs money can buy. However, Apple is going to need to do more than deploy some ‘also-ran’ service and think they can compete with Netflix, Xbox, and TIVO.

Of course one can argue that a strong second place runner is well within Apple’s comfort zone –but not in this space.  Apple is accustomed to owning personal entertainment, and extending the computing experience into the living room has been a stated objective of Apple’s since Steve’s return.

So what is that something more that will put Apple into the show for real, and maybe over the top?

My vote? Gaming.

The meteoric rise of gaming on the iPhone was predicted here before there was such a thing as an App-Store, and its easy to see Apple entering this space with force –although I can’t envision them doing it organically. To be successful they’d need to be bold, like buying up Sega’s assets, or bolder like buying Nintendo.

UPDATE: Some great debate, and some alternative strategies being discussed in the comments…

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About the author

LeighMcMullen

Leigh McMullen leads the Advisory Services & Strategy practices for the professional services arm of one of the Big-Five firms. He has written several books that would cure any insomnia you might have, and is an avid Mac junkie.

Email the author | Read more posts by Leigh McMullen.

48 comments

    I hear what you are saying but I am not going to switch to Netflix and dump my AppleTV. I love my Apple TV and I use almost daily. Guess I’m just loyal to Apple….

    I tried to convince myself that I needed an apple tv, but I am on those crazy few, who has the the tv within wiring distance of my desk. Whenever I want to watch something I just plug in my 40″ samsung to my trusty MacBook, and enjoy. Netflix, Hulu, and the ocasianal download all at my fingertips.

    the big problem with netflix’s instant watch option is the selection is kind of….meh. i love it a lot for old tv series and stuff (yaay adam 12!) but for movies it has a long way to go, and the hd offerings are currently abysmal at best, plus you need a pretty good (at least 5 mb down) pipe to stream hd content. it’s a start anyway, and i think it’ll get others moving in the right direction. don;t be surprised if you see apple doing a subscription model sometime in the near future.

    Apple needs to put netflix on the AppleTV YESTERDAY. Why are they so pig-headed about ANY subscription service? Video isn’t the same as music, people don’t watch the same videos over and over like song tracks. Sony also dropped the ball on this one trying the same thing with the PS3. Who the fuck is gunna buy movies from the PS3 Store? Man, I hate to say this but, Microsoft is the only one that got it right this time. =(

    And for AppleTV gaming? That’s a no-freaking-brainer. Look, you already have the control in your hands! Why is this not happening?

    Seriously, Apple, what the eff. Get your shit together.

    My netflix queue has 80 items in, only 11 of which are available for download.

    No one has won or lost anything in this space, because we have by no means arrived at the promised land. Netflix isn’t pushing their digital only subscription option as mainstream because of the title shortage, and that’s controlled by the studios who are proceeding very slowly in this area.

    AppleTV is certainly not dead. Apple is as likely to roll out an iTunes subscription model tomorrow as Netflix is to suddenly have all their titles available for download. Leigh McMullen is seriously jumping the gun here.

    You are missing a big item here. Let’s assume that Netflix is wildly successful. As of right now the entire market capitalization of NetFlix is 2.14 Billion. Apple has about 24.5 Billion in cash on hand. If they ever became a threat Apple could buy them either friendly or over their dead body and Apple would not even notice the missing cash.

    It is more likely that NetFlix will be the name of the subscription video delivery service in iTunes.

    Apple TV is fine with me. They just polled Apple TV owners about features they’d like to see (VERY unusual for Apple), so I imagine there will be a completely new Apple TV in the next year or so.

    Meanwhile, I’m content with Apple TV as it is.

    Boxee will have Netflix on the aTV in another 90 days, so this is sort of a non-issue.

    I think the biggest looser in this news may very well be the movie houses, not Apple by any stretch of the imagination. The next looser may be the cable network. It is way cheaper to get your entertainment through the Apple TV + NetFlix combination rather than to pay the outrageous monthly fee to the cable services.

    firesign is right…my biggest barrier to using Netflix is the selection…and that’s something I feel is not of their choosing. My opinion is the studios are feeding Netflix just enough selections to keep it interesting, but not enough to become the de facto service for digital distribution…they don’t want the music industry’s iTunes scenario. The studios in turn don’t have to worry about Apple because its Apple TV model is built on iTunes sales & rentals; there’s no profit in the current hardware for Apple. So Apple’s not going to offer an “unlimited” subscription model.

    With a more current movie selection, my Apple TV remains a very nice option to have. Otherwise, Netflix is a no brainer with its low monthly subscription fee.

    /

    The elephant in the room the author forgot to mention is this:

    selection.

    And Netflix’s Watch Now service, as nice as it is, doesn’t have a lot of it that anyone would be interested in. Yeah it has 12,000 titles but its still 12,000 copies of a whole lot of nothing. Its easy to get 3rd tier distributers, indie filmakers and tiny documentary producers to sign on to dirt cheap all you can eat plan for just pennies. You might even get some of the major studios to dip their toes in by testing old catalog titles they would have a hard time selling if they were released again right now.

    But the real test will be can Netflix maintain a 10 dollar a month all you can eat plan and get the rights to stream all the physical content they have now in digital form. They can probably get the content, but there is no studio in the world that is going to let you have unlimited access to all their first rate titles for just 10 bucks a month.

    Get ready to pay more… lots more. In which case the a la carte prices for renting via Apple TV, X-box 360, Vudu and VOD start to seem more appealing.

    Have you checked Nintendo’s market cap recently? Even with the amount of money Apple has in the bank, it’s a pittance compared to what it would take to buy Nintendo.

    Also, I suspect the Japanese would be quite averse to any such thing.

    The limited selection of streaming titles on Netflix makes it poor competition for Apple TV, and the streaming on Netflix isn’t HD at all. At least with Apple TV you have the HD option. I did send a note to Apple that their HD feature film price is too high by a dollar. I’ve chosen to order delivery of a blu ray disc through Netflix over buying a rental from Apple several times.

    But the Netflix streaming feature isn’t quite ‘there yet’. The moment we can get an HD viewing with 5.1 surround on NEW RELEASES through Netflix, Apple TV is in trouble.

    Couple of points:
    1. Netflix is a service and it hasn’t made devices. AppleTV is a device (altho today it is mostly but not completely tied to the iTunes service). If Apple wanted the Netflix service on its AppleTV device, why wouldn’t Netflix be open to an additional source of revenue?
    2. What is the barrier for a competitor like Apple to enter and compete with Netflix’s streaming service and subscription business model? Does Netflix hold patents that would block entry? If Apple wanted a Netflix-like subscription streaming service, what would stop Apple from adding it to AppleTV at a lower price for just the streaming (no costly packaging and shipping of DVDs via the post office) to not only your TV but also your iPhone/iPod touch?

    To be fair, Netflix has a headstart; they have 10 million subscribers today (and project 10.6-11.3m at year-end), of which only a small percentage are using the streaming service; and they’ve already acquired streaming rights to 1000s of movies/shows. Netflix has some home device portability (Xbox, Tivo, TV mfrs), but Apple has the most popular mobile devices (both would work with computers).

    In any case, the game hasn’t even really begun, as the content owners have so far only made a tiny bit of their content available-with-few-restrictions across delivery channels. Jobs said AppleTV was a hobby because everyone was still experimenting to see what works. As soon as it becomes clearer (and Netflix type streaming may be it), there’s no doubt Apple intends to swoop in and try to do it even better (UI, coding & delivery, as well as larger ecosystem).

    @Kevin, “Jumping the gun” is what I do… It’s how were different than the echo-chamber Apple blogs out there.

    @everyone:

    On NetFlix Content
    True that. The key to content is subscribers. There’s really good “Teaser” content out there but it lacks depth for sure. As there’s more subscribers, Netflix will get more content, I could have waited until THEN to write the article, but then it wouldn’t be interesting, it’d be history, and none of us would want to talk about it.

    On Apple Adopting Netflix:
    I doubt it. It could happen. But I doubt it. And even if they did, so what. ATV’s biggest problem is that the box itself has no value-add. It’s not a DVR, you can’t play video-games on it. the box doesn’t do *anything*, ‘cept play pay-per-view and content on your computer, which is something that ALL the boxes around my TV can do.

    Now, for ATV owners it will be great if Apple or Boxee or whomever gets Netflix on ATV, but it doesn’t help Apple’s business strategy one bit. To do that, they need a BOX that can Garner REAL MARKET SHARE…

    On Apple Creating their own Subscription Service (tied to Apple TV)
    An even worse move for Apple, A real-big-fat-so-what. Because as we’ve explained above, Subscribers = Content availability. If you think Netflix lacks content with 10 million + subscribers, and another 14 Million ready to roll, wait until you see what having less than 2 million hardware owners does to your library.
    Apples Real Play Here: iTunes. If they can roll out the subscription model to iTunes, and Roll out iTunes so that it will play on ANYTHING, EVERYWHERE. They could Snatch This Market Back from Netflix before lunch.

    Apple TV sales went up 300% last quarter.

    The Apple TV is just getting started. The Apple TV is like the iPod 2G. Do you know what’s coming? What happens when top game makers start making iPod Touch only games. What happens when you can use you iPod Touch, as an interactive control pad with HUD, to play those games on the Apple TV? Open your eyes, dude.

    And the XBox 360 only has 28 million units in the market? Total? Really?

    A bit more data.
    - Maybe about 15% of Netflix subscribers have used/are using streaming service (know that 1 million Xbox Gold/Netflix subscribers have streamed)

    Netflix also has customer satisfaction on its side – it gets the highest scores, but Apple is not that far behind.

    If Apple turns on streaming, it’s likely just a software upgrade and a menu selection for all those AppleTVs already in people’s homes. Apple likely already has the credit card info.

    BTW, where did you get the 2m number?

    We use the AppleTV to access a great deal of our own content that consists of video tapes I digitized and ripped DVDs. We don’t want a subscription to anything. If I want to see an episode of something, I’ll pay for that. (Doesn’t happen very often.) AppleTV works good for me (along with an XP machine with a 1.5tb drive in the basement. I could use a good low-power media server thing and no not a Mac Mini with its tiny hard drive.)

    Totally, Leigh. An iTunes video subscription would be WAY better than Netflix, if the content owners agree and Apple has the huevos to do it, of course. In fact, I’d probably cancel my Netflix account and buy an AppleTV the second that was available.

    @ Viviana
    God I hope the cable companies go down in a violent, screaming fireball of bankruptcy. I don’t know what kind of experiences you all have had, but a lil part of me jumped for joy when I read this: http://www.fiercetelecom.com/story/charter-communications-will-file-bankruptcy/2009-02-12

    Since when has the “fat lady” sung? This article is just pure Apple bashing, and Netflix propaganda. Is this blog more of a Netflix echo chamber?

    Apple TV sold more units since it introduced version 2 and it is expected that version 3 is around the corner.

    The perfect set-top box is my Apple mini computer with analog-digital conversion and cable tv. Record a movie-no problem. Record a tv show- no problem. Stream from the internet or itunes-no problem. Burn anything watched to DVD or convert Quicktime- no problem. Need Netflix- Nope. Priceless.

    The Netflix streaming on the xbox is very disappointing. Unless you have a 3M or faster connection, it’s totally unwatchable.

    Where I live, we have the fastest home DSL connection available while still being unlimited bandwidth. Netflix was NOT an option for us.

    Streaming Hulu from a PC to the XBox however… That’s totally win.

    I don’t know Leigh…I think you have your equation in reverse.
    Content = subscribers.

    Without good content people are going to be reluctant to try it plus make any investment needed for necessary hardware. Worse, if they come and don’t get their money’s worth, the task is even harder to get them to return when content does arrive. As the saying goes, “you only get one chance to make a first impression.”

    That’s exactly why Apple has been labeling Apple TV a “hobby” and not putting much effort into it…it’s not providing the positive experience to consumers that Apple expects of its products. As of yet, neither they or anyone else has found that magical solution…that iPod-type experience.

    With a simple hack you can have Netflix, Hulu, Twit.TV running on the AppleTV thru Firefox. I have been streaming watch instantly Netflix on my AppleTV since Januray 1 with the silverlight plugin but just added the flash plugin once Boxee lost Hulu.

    For those interested install the ATV Flashstick and google AppleTV Firefox. After installing the ATV flashstick window users can mount a shared folder and use Cygwin instead of a Mac.

    Netflix has enjoyed some level of success, but to be certain, it isn’t for everyone.

    AppleTV allows you to stream your iTunes and iPhoto content (not to mention ripped DVDs) to your high def TV. Right now, the AppleTV product is weak as it doesn’t support 1080p, but I’m hopeful that will change with the next product release. Hopefully it will be based on the nVidia ION platform. Otherwise, the AppleTV is toast.

    For those who still appreciate quality, Blu-Ray is still the preferred format. Also, you have to consider that much of the country still doesn’t support adequate broad band internet connections.

    For some reason I think PlayDVD is going to be a contender. With only limited titles and drop off and pick up issue, they are very good at the integration of the physical and internet. Billing and receipts on-line. Very low labor costs… Low Barrier to entry so there may be competition soon, but like ATM in the beginning I think more and more DVD kiosk popping up everywhere think, Flaming Moe’s! or Beta Barns…

    get a grip CultofMac – the details DO matter:

    - Netflix (i use it) is a service, not hardware. it’s strategy is to get its service onto everybody’s hardware, even AppleTV if possible. therefore it actually competes with iTunes instead. so this article is off-track, comparing Apples to oranges.

    - Netflix’ on-line movie selection is very limited compared to their DVD library, and never includes recent big hit releases. so if you can’t wait a year or so to see a movie, you have to rent the DVD, or even faster, pay $5 to iTunes or some other service for on-line rental.

    - Netflix has more competition coming from the other direction too – the free web portals like Hulu, especially for TV products that include the back catalogs also available at Netflix.

    - you have to use some company’s hardware to show movies on your TV no matter what services you use. the question is whose/what? so everyone (except the cable companies who are trying monopoly tactics, but now including TV makers) is trying to build home multimedia hub functions into their hardware.

    - the iTunes ecosystem, including the iPod/Touch, iPhone, Time Capsule, Macs/PC’s (and extendable to TiVo), as well as AppleTV is the most fully developed seamless home media ecosystem available today. MS’s are not cross-platform, and all others are just bits and pieces. this ecosystem will keep AppleTV in the game … BUT:

    no one denies that AppleTV needs to do more to keep up with the competition. third-party add-ons like Boxee and CouchSurfer have shown the way people want to go … so we will see what Apple comes up with. it has to be this year.

    actually, ATV’s most dangerous competition is TiVo, which can do all the same functions plus a lot more (why i bought one), and also offers full Mac integration (via Toast). good thing for AppleTV that TiVo costs a lot more too or it would wipe ATV out.

    I see the potential for Netflix but AppleTV is humming along quite nicely, thank you very much. In the same time period in which you were so enraptured with Netflix’s new subscription, Apple tripled sales of AppleTVs.

    Lost in the shuffle of Apple’s record breaking earnings last quarter,… is the fact that Apple’s beloved hobby, the Apple TV, is still chugging along and ratcheting up impressive sales. Apple’s earnings report shows that sales of Apple TV are up three-fold from the same quarter a year-ago, and Tim Cook’s comments during the conference call indicate that not only has Apple not given up on this ‘hobby’, but that it plans to keep on investing in it.

    I agree, Netflix’s new partnerships have some serious potential but they face some major problems, just like AppleTV. No HD and very limited library were the two reasons everyone said AppleTV would fail.

    I think casual iPhone games, e-mail and websurfing would do VERY well on the AppleTV combined with a HD monitor. And of course, the iPhone and iPodtouch would serve as wii-style controlers.

    @D9: It would I got it backwards, that it should be Content=Subscribers, and you make very good points: I phrased mine the way I did because in order to get content in the first place, in order to be able to offer it at an affordable price per month, you have to have a certain volume of subscribers to amortize the licensing costs of content over.

    Apple has been able to drive the pay-per-view market because of the installed base of their devices and iTunes users who’ve provided credit cards, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a subscription model, which is a different content licensing agreement.

    In this model, Netflix’s 10 million paid subscribers are worth 100 million** iTunes users –I totally just made up that ratio BUT as Mark pointed out that of the 10 million XBox Live-Gold members only 1 million*** have streamed movies. So a 1 for 10 conversion rate might not be too far off.

    —–

    @Everyone who said: My ATV can stream Music and pictures and junk, too…
    Yeah, so can Tivo and XBox, and some cable boxes, my point is that Apple to execute has to have a box that does something that is a draw unto itself (play games, DVR, media library, whatever) in order to create market share. –How about a classic games marketplace like on XBox Live?

    **There are actually only 75 Million iTunes users who have provided Credit Card information.
    ***That’s Mark’s figure, I haven’t verified it

    I use Apple for my computing needs, but the Apple TV never really won me over. I wanted something super simple for the family to use, and the only service I found that could do it was VUDU. My kids can order movies easily and the interface is simple. The selection is great too.

    I might delve into Apple TV later, but it mostly would be for myself and not to use with the entire family. We’ll see.

    I really want to like our NETFLIX over 360 or TIVO HD service, but despite our upgraded internet, (supposedly double the bandwidth of normal comcast internet), we struggle to make it through a 30 minute show in SD without it having to back out and rebuffer. We then end up with video downgraded to nearly unwatchable low-rez. And through our TIVO HD, the NETFLIX performance is atrocious with loud popping noises throughout.
    And, its rare that we actually will have a true HD stream.
    Alternately, we’ve had zero issues on the AppleTV, but it’s an ala carte menu, so obviously it costs per download. (Although we also use it as a media gateway, in order to access our own collection or ripped DVD’s.
    Netflix will have a winner on its hands, but first they have to sort out these issues.
    I’m hopeful.

    Don’t get me wrong. I LOVE Netflix streaming on my Tivo. But, “nearly flawless?” Maybe it’s just me, but the inability to search/add titles to the queue on the actual device, and the non-sortable, date-ordered nav list leaves much to be desired.

    @ray: overlooked that… you’re absolutely right. You can’t search from the device. just your computer. I guess being a Netflix subscriber, then blockbuster, then back to NF, I’m just used to managing my queue from my computer.

    What really impressed me was while watching a series show like Heroes it remembered where I was on each series across devices. And also I’ve never failed to get a flawless HD signal at home, work, or during a stay in the hospital.

    Of course other reader’s mileage certainly has varied on that. Of course I’ve got crazy bandwidth to my house (50meg).

    P.S. this piece was never intended to be an “Advertisement” for Netflix, or even an endorsement of their service. I’m confident that Blockbuster, Amazon, and yes even Apple will likely come out with competing services, some of which will likely be better.

    The heart of my thesis is that subscription-on-demand type services are going to change everything, including premium cable. It will also place less emphasis on the “Box” and more on the service provider. So much of an emphasis shift that a box that’s nothing but a gateway for a particular service (ATV) is destined to be marginalized, in favor of those that provide additional value adds.

    Thanks

    Leigh.

    Can netflix beat this – ovguide.com

    @ Leigh – i hear you. but …

    - for now, unless you use a full HTPC that can technically do everything, the “box” still matters. hardware/function capabilities are still evolving, and price points are all over the place. it isn’t – yet – all about just services. maybe in 5 years it will settle down more. at the moment, this is ATV’s weak point.

    - for always, the overall “ecosystem” will matter a lot. call it unification or whatever, but the great majority of consumers are not geeks and just want the simplest set up to do all the media/video stuff they enjoy, anytime and anyplace they feel like it, as cheap as possible. at the moment, this is ATV’s strong point as one part of iTunes world.

    - meanwhile and forever, the content owners and bandwidth owners will keep scheming to “monetize” everything they can, as much as they can. they hope to leverage tightly controlled subscription and portal services towards that end, including Netflix and Hulu and all the rest. but in fact a glut of content, combined with ever-lurking piracy/hacking of the most valuable stuff, is driving prices down … thank god.

    but you gotta admit – the “Game Over” headline is a total overstatement no matter how you look at it. “Game On” would be much better.

    Apple TV is still pricy. All of my guests loved it and like to buy, but when they ask the price, the eyebrow went up and hesitation came instead.

    I love all the us-centric discussions on video on a global medium .
    I just wanted to remind all of you that there are about 6.5 billion peaople out there that have no (legal) access to hulu, netflix etc. At least some billion of them are able to buy an use an Apple TV legally. Might be a market big enaough for Apple to consider.

    IP video set tops are in their infancy. It’s a bit early to say the AppleTV is a failure especially when you consider the statements by Jobs that it is a hobby. From that I take Apple wanted to get some practical experience making a set top, putting the infrastructure in place for renting/streaming movies, and integrating with iTunes.

    Leigh – I am sure there is a demand for some type of online subscription service, I am not, however, convinced that it is large. Netflix may have shown that millions of people want video subscriptions, but it is just as likely that it proved millions of people didn’t want to drive to the video store.

    As for a box-less existence for watching TV, I am all for it. But I don’t expect it anytime soon. I’m already old and grey, so perhaps not even during my lifetime. There are too many companies between the creators of the movie/TV show/whatever and us, the consumers of the show. Most notable are the studios who are loath to give up control.

    BTW – for those who complain about the lack of content or “missing” episode (streaming or otherwise) on Netflix or Vudu or iTunes or other services the reason is not because the services are holding back (or lazy), it’s because the studios won’t release the shows.

    I hope AppleTV’s not dead yet cause I’m just waiting for a refresh to buy mine.

    If the ISP’s cap data volume as many have done, what will NetFlix do? The choke point is getting the content to the local box of whatever brand. Time-Warner has already started to pull the data cap game and Comcast is joining in, although not in such a heavy handed way. Between the 2- that’s a massive chunk of the Broadband capable households in the US.

    With Time-Warner, Comcast, Verizon and At&T capping the monthly volume of data, just where will NetFlix go to deliver the stuff? That’s the bulk of the game in the US.

    @NoPCZone: The “Caps” as you describe are primarily to prevent piracy. they’re actually monitoring for file sharing traffic as I understand it.

    Now, that doesn’t mean that your ISP couldn’t legitimately “cap” your data bandwidth, including legitimate traffic. And THAT discussion branches into the whole net-neutrality issue, which I won’t touch with a 10-foot-pole.
    ——-

    Now on bandwidth, personally I live in a place that’s about 3 years ahead of everyone else, lets just call it bandwidth Nirvana (or Dallas, Texas for your lay-folk). I’ve got fiber to the house that yields 50 meg down. But that’s not all, since my TV and Telephone come over the same fiber, per Verizon, we’ve actually got closer to 300 meg down, (and they’re upgrading to make it over 1 gig).

    Now I don’t know about you, but despite the marketing claiming they’re faster, I don’t get 1 gig sustained transfer rate out of the HARD DRIVES installed in my computer. So once we get there, we’re in a place where we just don’t care about data ownership anymore… it wont matter if a file is on my hard drive or on Amazon’s E2C cloud or at Netflix or blockbuster, it will be the same or faster as local.

    Similarly my ISP won’t care about data consumption either, except as an anti-piracy measure… expect ISPs to throttle UP STREAM bandwidth, rather than DOWN STREAM. ***THAT*** is a much more effective anti-piracy measure (as it throttles distribution rather than consumption).

    @AlfieJr: Accusing me of “Overstating” things, is like accusing the sun of rising in the east. Wild and Inflammatory, it’s what I do. –but thank you for noticing!!

    Of course, go back and look… some of the crazy things I’ve said, in retrospect are like… you know, ordinary now. like that you can play a legitimately modern video game on your iPhone.

    Comcast has recently acknowledged that they are launching an internet streaming service for channels to those who subscribe to their service in an on demand fashion. Interestingly, they are quoted as saying the data volume supplied by them to their customers will count against the monthly data limit.

    I see this as an entrenched view by the ISP’s to limit bandwidth as a means to extract more revenue from their customers. With the Copps led FCC essentially opposing a tiered internet, allowing some providers (who might share revenue, for example) to not count against caps.

    In the end, those who are in the middle between content and end user are seeking ways to extract every nickel they can from the internet. It is this fact that is standing in the way for Net delivered TV on a mass scale. Not everyone lives in a FIOS area, nor will they anytime soon. The economy will probably cause a slowing in the rollout.

    P.S. Our own Pete M. Called the iPhone as a Gaming Platform well before me or anyone else, here: http://blog.wired.com/cultofmac/2007/01/fun_speculation.html

    In the midst of an economic meltdown, I’m thinking an app that turns an iPhone into a hobo trashcan fire could become very popular.

    What everyone seems to be missing is one key element to the success of Apple and their products: user experience.

    Think about it… there are and have been tons of products that can play music. That’s all the first few generations of iPods did: play music. So why were they successful? User experience. They were easy, fresh and fun. One scroll wheel, one-handed operation, small, elegant package… an entirely new way to listen to music.

    Fast forward several years and now we have the Apple TV. Yes, there are lots of other ways to watch a movie, to view your photos or to listen to music on your tv. Why are none of them – included Netflix IMO – game changers? Because they don’t come close to the user experience that Apple TV provides. You can argue forever about all the services that do more than Apple TV (just like people argued about the Zune and all it could do) but what makes Apple TV so great is its simplicity.

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