More signs today that the pad may be overtaking paper as the preferred way readers get their literary fix. According to a survey by iSuppli, e-books will grow at an annual rate of more than 40 percent between 2010 and 2014. That’s a marked difference over printed books, which the survey predicts will fall five percent during the same timespan.
Traditional readers of print books may find the results “frightening,” says analyst Steve Mather. Total book revenue by U.S. publishers “will fall to $22.7 billion in 2014, down from $25 billion in 2010,” according to the survey.
Although the revenue figures include both e-books and paper book sales, the survey results echo previous signs of U.S. reading patterns. In February, U.S. publishers reported e-books outsold paperbacks and hardcovers. While e-book sales in February reached $90.3 million – a 202 percent increase over the same time last year – print books fell 24.8 percent, a $215.3 million drop since the start of 2011.
Mather sees the rise of e-books mirroring earlier introduction, then domination by other digital media, such as music and video. Although the iPad is often viewed as eventual beneficiary of the transition to e-books, the outcome remains uncertain. Although The iPad App Store is moving toward more reading-related applications (16,712 versus 13,861 for gaming), almost four out of 10 iPad owners say they don’t use the device for reading. Additionally, Apple has been reluctant to support the idea of a small iPad, potentially closer in form-factor to Amazon’s Kindle. (In January, Amazon reported selling more e-books than paper books.)
Perhaps Apple could still win the e-book war without adopting the traditional e-book reader hardware. The iPad has become a popular platform for Amazon’s Kindle reading software. At some point, whether e-reading is accomplished on a Kindle, a PC or an iPad, the hardware will be immaterial – like digital music and digital video – the move toward e-reading will continue.
