Bernstein Analyst Shrinks Apple ’09 Outlook

As analysts attempt to predict Wednesday’s first quarter revenue report from Apple, one expert trimmed his expectation for both the December quarter and full fiscal year.

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi told clients Monday he predicts Apple will report $9.3 billion for the December quarter, off slightly from the $9.76 billion Wall Street consensus.

He said data “may not be encouraging, given the lack of new products at MacWorld and Apple’s refusal to cut prices” along with CEO Steve Jobs’ recent health status downgrade.

The analyst foresees Apple reporting December sales of 2.57 million Macs, 3.5 million iPhones and 18.1 million iPods. Both desktop and notebook sales will fall during the quarter with notebooks slipping 30 percent and desktops dropping 15 percent compared to 2007.

Although revenue will be below consensus, the analyst expects Apple will report a gross margin of 33.5 percent as the Silicon Valley company was helped by falling memory prices.

Sacconaghi’s note to investors expected Apple will provide guidance of between $7 billion and $7.5 billion for the March quarter, slightly below the $7.7 billion consensus. For the year, the analyst predicted Apple will sell 10.3 million Macs, 45.4 million iPods and 18.2 million iPhones.

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