The blogger, who beat analysts in his prediction of Apple’s fourth quarter numbers, wrote experts have been “absurdly bearish” with revenue estimates that “no longer reflect even a scintilla of financial reality.”
“The analysts have been consistently wrong in predicting Apple’s earnings results and this time they’re going to get their ‘hats handed to them,’” Zaky wrote on his blog Bullish Cross.
In October, Apple’s Chief Financial Officer, Peter Oppenheimer forecast revenue of $9 billion to $10 billion for the December quarter. The Wall Street consensus is a slightly higher $10.08 billion.
Zaky said Wall Street experts are misinterpreting Oppenheimer’s comment that forecasting would be “challenging.” The misread prompted what the unpaid analyst called “irrational bearish exuberance.” The blogger believes Apple provided a conservative forecast to top expectations even during a challenging economic period.
The blogger believes iPod sales will contract a slight one percent in the first quarter. Apple will sell 22 million iPods, down from the 22.121 million personal media players Cupertino shipped a year ago. Apple’s iPod revenue will drop 6.4 percent to $3.74 billion compared to $3.99 billion during the first quarter of 2007, according to Zaky.
The projection is only preliminary prior to other market numbers from NPD and elsewhere, warned Zaky.
Apple may sell 2.8 million Macs, up from the 2.6 million Apple reported selling during the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the blogger. Steve Jobs could ship 8 million iPhones in the first quarter of 2009, up from 6.8 million reported in October.
Zaky’s preliminary projection for iPhone sales is at odds with Wall Street analysts. Friday, Barclays Capital trimmed to 5 million from 6.2 million the iPhone sales it projected for the first quarter of next year.