Analysts Low Tablet Adoption Initially Won’t Stress Cellular Networks

If visions of 3G networks tied in a knot by a deluge of frenzied tablet owners keeps you awake at night, fear not – at least not immediately after Apple’s rumored device makes its first appearance. Why so much calm? Experts predict a high price coupled with low initial adoption could give networks breathing space to prepare for the eventual onslaught.

Although Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said earlier this week he expects a 3G cellular connection not be included to prevent further clogging “already strained” high-speed networks, others don’t agree. “I can’t imagine it not having it,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told All Thing Digital.

However, for carriers, a tablet that makes heavy use of video is a “recipe for disaster,” said Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett. He said the tablet would likely employ “download-to-watch-later” in place of streaming, and make use of home Internet connections to offload the demand.

Another key point for carriers seeking time and consumers hoping to avoid delays is a perceived gap between the gossip phase and actual sales of Apple’s tablet.

“If this device is $800 – $1000, I think adoption is going to be much lower than the hype would lead you to believe,” Munster said. Indeed, several recent studies found consumers balking at a price higher than $700. Munster sees the tablet following the iPhone’s adoption pattern.

When Apple first introduced the iPhone in 2007, it sold 5.5 million handsets for $475. Issues with 3G only began appearing in 2009, coinciding with what the analyst said was “the hockey stick in iPhone adoption.” Assuming there is no delay shipping the device, Apple likely will sell 1.4 million tablets in 2010, according to Munster.

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[Via ATD]

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