Nokia Stooge Claims Windows Phones Will Beat iOS In Next 3 Years

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Forbes contributor Mark Fidelman has posted an article arguing that Microsoft’s new mobile strategy will help it overtake Apple within three years.

Fidelman’s case comes down both to the possibility of “seamless integration” with Windows 8.1, Office 365 and Xbox — in addition to the growing share of the smartphone market that Windows Phones currently represent.

On the face of it, these numbers are certainly impressive — with Windows Phones enjoying a 366 percent increase YoY increase for the Nokia Lumia in the United States.

But while this might be true, they still currently represent a tiny piece of the overall pie: making up just 3.6 percent of U.S. smartphones in total.

Furthermore there is the problem of persuading third-party developers to invest time and effort developing for a platform that still represents a nascent market compared to the Android and iOS platforms.

However, Fidelman is confident they will manage it and ultimately argues that,

“As I’ve shown, and despite inaccurate perceptions, most of Microsoft’s business lines are doing well. They are a growing and dominant enterprise technology company that is retooling under their One Microsoft initiative. That vision of a One Microsoft and their acquisition of Nokia (along with their innovative app solutions like App Social) will help them regain a leadership position in the mobile market because a low cost, integrated smart phone will be too good an option to pass up for users in emerging countries. Moreover, home and business users will increasingly realize the benefits of a seamless user experience across screens and gravitate to a Windows 8 platform that maintains their play and their work no matter where they are.”

There is one key disclosure he makes at the end of the article, however: that he is also managing director of Evolve, a company that includes Nokia (whose mobile phone division Microsoft owns) among its customers.

Will Microsoft’s mobile strategy overtake the iOS ecosystem within three years?

Read the article and make up your own mind — but it’s worth pointing out that a similar “three year” prediction was made back at the start of 2012.

  • Zurkram

    I hate to say it, but If Apple doesn’t up its game, this might be a real possibility.
    Sitting back and letting Amazon, Google and Microsoft bash it with no response is not good.
    I hate Microsoft, but they knows this is do or die.

  • CrazedLeper

    Utterly laughable. M$ft had the jump on apple in the 90s and hasn’t been able to make a good tablet or a successful phone in 2 decades. All along 3 more years is all they have needed? Never happen.

  • OneHungLow

    I hate to say it, but If Apple doesn’t up its game, this might be a real possibility.
    Sitting back and letting Amazon, Google and Microsoft bash it with no response is not good.
    I hate Microsoft, but they knows this is do or die.

    I don’t think Tim Cook wants to get involved with a pissing match between MS, Google, Samsung, and Amazon. I think he wants to take the high road approach. What’s a potential interesting twist on MS’s Xbox is that Apple bought the sensor company that MS has relied on for their Kinect product. What happens if Apple discontinues selling those sensors to other OEMs? It’s VERY possible they might do that since they only want that technology for themselves. It wouldn’t surprise me if Apple builds those sensors and the guts of an iPad variant inside a TV so one can play games with motion sensors, use whatever apps they want, watch TV, stream video, etc. If Apple does come out with a SmartTV that’s possibly a 1080p and/or 4K, Apple could capture a tremendous amount of revenue, profits, market share of the SmartTV/Game console market with one product.

    You think that MS is going to come out with a SmartTV?

    I think iOS 8 is going to have more features that people want, then there’s second generation 64bit ARM processors, more models of iPads, iPhones, and I think they’ll extend their lead over MS in these areas and then grabbing market share and even more profits from the Android market and just leave the scrap no profit business to everyone else. MS is destroying their own profit margin with the Xbox and Surface products. I wonder how much they will need to write down next year?

  • markymac

    While I commend him for thinking that Microsoft, a company that’s done almost everything wrong in the last 10 years and still can’t get a firm foothold in the market today, will have more relevance in the future but I don’t think it helps anyone to predict what the next 3 years will bring.

    No one saw the success of the iPad coming. Even I doubted it at first blush but in just 4 years it’s gone wide and deep in industries no one could’ve predicted.

    I don’t think for a minute that when people saw the iPad they thought, “that’ll make a cool cash register”. But it happened thanks to quick upstarts like Square. The next big app is being conceptualized right now but it might take another magical piece of hardware from Apple to bring it to life.

    Also, if Google continues their reign of power over, well everything, and they choose not to play nice with Microsoft nothing Microsoft does will matter. There’s still no official YouTube app and many apps that have been on iOS and Android for years have yet to make the jump.

    While I believe Microsoft will always be a contender and shouldn’t be ignored I don’t see them overtaking Apple in any way possible.

    But we’ll just have to wait and see.

  • Qwwq

    I will do this. I will do that. Yada yada yada. How will I do this? I am not sure!

About the author

Luke DormehlLuke Dormehl is a UK-based journalist and author, with a background working in documentary film for Channel 4 and the BBC. He is the author of The Formula: How Algorithms Solve All Our Problems, And Create More and The Apple Revolution, both published by Penguin/Random House. His tech writing has also appeared in Wired, Fast Company, Techmeme, and other publications. He'd like you a lot if you followed him on Twitter.

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