Analyst: Mac Sales To Rise 26 Percent, Leaving PCs Far Behind

Ed Sutherland ()

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Yet another analyst Thursday joined the chorus of voices singing Apple’s praises in a sluggish PC market. Mac sales will grow 26 percent in 2010, far outstripping PCs forecast to grow just 16 percent year over year.

Looking forward, Robert Cichra, analyst with Caris & Company, predicted Apple will have 4 percent of the market share for 2010, providing what the analyst termed “considerable headroom” for more growth.

The analyst told investors 2010 would give Apple a growth rate 1.6 percent faster than the PC market. Cichra said Apple is “the single best PC market investment,” calling the Cupertino, Calif. company “the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware and software) and profitable PC vendor.”

The comments echo an earlier report that Mac sales grew 16.4 percent in September, versus 2.3 percent. Needham and Co. analyst Charlie Wolf told investors the iPhone’s ‘halo effect’ may be a factor.

With an estimated $340 gross profit per unit, Apple is earning 2-3 times its peers, according to the analyst. The rise of netbooks in 2009 prompted a “brutal” decline in PC prices – an estimated 16 percent dive compared to the previous year.

However, PC makers may be learning a lesson from Apple, if two years too late. Although Apple lowered its prices of laptops versus desktops back in 2007, PC makers are just noticing the increasing popularity of notebooks over desktops. In early 2009, HP became the first PC maker to set its average laptop price lower than its desktops, according to the analyst.

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[Via AppleInsider]

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About the author

Ed Sutherland

Ed Sutherland is a veteran technology journalist who first heard of Apple when they grew on trees, Yahoo was run out of a Stanford dorm and Google was an unknown upstart. Since then, Sutherland has covered the whole technology landscape, concentrating on tracking the trends and figuring out the finances of large (and small) technology companies.

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  • james tk

    “However, PC makers may be learning a lesson from Apple”

    well I HOPE so. If they’re not, they’re worse than I thought.
    It would be stupid for them to not learn from apple

    Also, with apple computer sales going up so much, I wouldn’t doubt some corporations are going to switch to apple computers in the future. That means malware is going to be written (more) for mac os x. So they better work on a more secure OS.

  • imajoebob

    The weird part of this analysis is the impression that 16% growth is dismal. 16 percent of 90 percent is a lot more impressive than 26% of 10. And this report seems to say it’s 26% of 4. At the 10% share that’s an increase of PC over Mac by better than 5 to 1, and even with the crappy margins, the PC manufacturers make nearly twice the profit.

    If I can get two more loyal readers, my blog’s growth will outstrip CoM by 43%!

  • KenseiDave

    @imajoebob. I was just thinking that too.

    I am a mac enthusiast. But I also use windows.

    I think mac fanboys are often over zealous with their praise and understated with their criticisms.

    What was the saying, “4% of the marketshare, 96% of the crazy?” hehe.

  • Fuzzypig

    In a phrase, “Lies, damn lies and statistics.”!

    They all love to use percentages, because percentages are a wonderful way to hide the real figures and makes it very easy to scan while reading quickly. It’s only when you spend a few seconds more, not something we always do in this 90mph world we live in now, stand back and think about what you have just read, the facts become really clear.

  • Cory

    Wow…. what comments… I think you people need to go back to school.

    First off, If “the PC manufacturers make nearly twice the profit” that means Apple makes 1/3 the profit… and Apple is just one company… so I’d say that’s extremely good. The other makers don’t have any margins… and Apple is doing this in the cell phone space as well where only RIM and Apple have any meaningful margins and therefore profit. Apple + RIM = 2/3 the cell phone manufactures profits… and they make less then 10% of the handsets.

    Apple has about 10% market share in the USA and about 5% (4 – 5%) if you include the entire world…. and the growth of the PC market is 16% and Mac is 26% … so lets calculate market share going forward 10 years so you commenters can see what the article is referring to (assume the same growth over several years and using the USA market share)… there is no PC increase of 5 to 1 over Mac.

    Year – Mac (PC)
    2009 – 10.0% (90.0)
    2010 – 10.7%
    2011 – 11.6%
    2012 – 12.5%
    2013 – 13.4%
    2014 – 14.4%
    2015 – 15.4%
    2016 – 16.5%
    2017 – 17.7%
    2018 – 19.0%
    2019 – 20.3%
    2020 – 21.6% (78.4)

    So at this rate… in ten years, the PC market share has dropped 11.6 and Apple’s market share has more then doubled and has become the market share leader of all manufactures…. and the curve is not good for PCs.